PM moves to counter rising political heat

By ISAAC ONGIRI

Prime Minister Raila Odinga is rolling out a plan to counter the wave of political sentiment generated against him by a stormy round of rallies held by his rivals.

The game plan is aimed at containing the growing threats to his position as the front-runner to succeed President Kibaki whose second term ends this year.

Raila’s two main political rivals, who face charges in The Hague over the 2008 post-election violence, have seen a rise in popularity as the ODM leader comes under fire for his perceived position on their fate.

ODM Cabinet ministers are believed to have discussed the impact of the ICC decision on the party’s political future during a strategy meeting at the Prime Minister’s office last month.

The ODM leader’s presidential campaign team has unveiled a 47-county meet-the-people plan, which went into action on Saturday.

Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi (centre) with Higher Education Minister Margaret Kamar and Rev J Maswai. Mr Mudavadi, always perceived to be a loyal Number Two to Raila Odinga, has been getting assertive ahead of the General Election. [PHOTO: PETER OCHIENG’/STANDARD]

Addressing a party delegates meeting at the Machakos Golf Club on Saturday, the PM sought to differentiate himself from rivals he accused of not being committed to implementing the Constitution proclaimed last year. He argued that leaders who had either opposed the new law or supported it half-heartedly could not be trusted to implement it.

Propaganda

"Some of these people gave us red cards while others were watermelons," said Raila in reference to Eldoret North MP William Ruto who led the "No" campaigns during the referendum and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka whose support for the constitution was deemed half-hearted.

Allies of Ruto and Deputy PM Uhuru Kenyatta have attacked Raila and ODM at several rallies for allegedly ‘celebrating’ the confirmation of charges against the two at the International Criminal Court. The accusations have fed into an older propaganda blaming Raila for the tribulations that Uhuru and Ruto face at the ICC.

The gatherings have seen the two ICC accused and their allies marshal moral support from Kalonzo who is also a presidential contender as well as dozens of MPs.

The leaders of this loose alliance have pledged to remain united for the General Election expected later this year, presenting Raila with a major challenge at a time when opinion polls suggest he no longer commands the vast lead he once had over other presidential contenders.

One reputable pollster, Synovate-Ipsos, has even projected the race will go to a run-off between two candidates if the gap between Raila and his rivals does not grow, which would complicate matters greatly for the front-runner.

Raila also faces unexpected competition and other difficulties within his own party. Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, always perceived to be a loyal Number Two who delivers the Western Kenya vote, has been getting more assertive in the last months to the General Election. This comes at a time when support in Rift Valley, an ODM stronghold that gave him over one million votes in 2007, seems to be collapsing.

The party’s hopes that Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey’s escape from the ICC net would boost its interests in the Rift Valley failed to take off after the former minister resumed his low-profile political stand. Some in ODM hope the erstwhile party chairman will now be free to help pick up the pieces within the rebelling Rift Valley leadership.

In an attempt to fix his problems, Raila has been holding talks with top-level ODM leaders and key advisors, including Cabinet ministers, to strategise on how to handle the political tide. Last month, the PM held a strategy meeting with all ODM ministers and assistant ministers in his Harambee Avenue office.

"Yes, we have held quite a number of meetings as ODM ministers with the Prime Minister to strategise on how to build our party," said Cabinet Minister Amason Kingi.

Rising tensions

He, however, insists the meetings were not about the Kenyan cases at the International Criminal Court or their political impact at home. Kingi further moved to play down the rising tensions in the party occasioned by the vigorous campaigns initiated by Mudavadi. He insists party insiders are not worried about that or about Kosgey’s increasing lukewarm position on ODM.

However, Sports and Youth Affairs Minister Dr Paul Otuoma confirmed there are those in the party who are worried about Musalia’s aggressive campaign for the party’s ticket.

"There are concerns that the manner in which Musalia is handling his campaign risks leading ODM into the same situation facing other parties who have no clear candidates yet," Otuoma told The Standard On Sunday.

The minister, however, said that if Musalia insists on running against Raila in a primary, the party constitution is in his favour and nothing can be done about it.

Otuoma further described as unfortunate, attempts to blame the PM for the ICC verdict on the four ICC suspects.

Not everyone is convinced Musalia’s campaign is the real deal. Political Scientist Dr Amukowa Anangwe described the aggression against the PM as a friendly match.

Ndaragua MP Jeremiah Kioni agrees the ICC decision will hurt Uhuru and Ruto at the ballot box, but he argues it could have a greater impact on the PM’s political future.

"It is true the ICC cases can be seen to have damaged Uhuru and Ruto, but it is clear the PM may suffer more than then two." Kioni said.

Kioni says Ruto’s supporters feel their man has met his misfortune because of coming into political contact with the PM while the Raila’s hopes of replacing his lost support in the Rift Valley with support from Central is diminishing due to the perception that Uhuru has a case to answer at the ICC because the PM disputed the Kibaki win in 2007.

But even as the Premier fights to reclaim the lost ground, Uhuru and Ruto kept up their campaigns. They were in Kinoru stadium in Meru on Thursday and were in Mombasa’s famous Tononoka grounds on Saturday.

After his tour of Machakos, Makueni and Kitui on Saturday the PM will on Tuesday tour Turkana County where he will address a rally in Lodwar. On Wednesday he will meet ODM delegates in West Pokot and Trans-Nzoia Counties before addressing a rally in Kitale Town.

On Thursday, the PM will be in Bungoma County before concluding his first round of tours in Kakamega town on Friday after meeting party delegates in Busia and Vihiga counties.