PHOTO/FILE Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi attempts to cool down tempers at a meeting of ODM delegates at Moi Girls Vokoli High School in Vihiga County. The meeting in December had been called to endorse him for the presidential race.
By LUCAS BARASA lbarassa@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Friday, February 3 2012 at 19:51
Posted Friday, February 3 2012 at 19:51
The Orange Democratic Movement is bracing for a battle for its presidential ticket.
Party leader Raila Odinga and his deputy Musalia Mudavadi will go head-to-head again for the ticket like they did in 2007.
But unlike in 2007 when Mr Odinga was the overwhelming favourite and the nomination was seen as a mere formality, this time round there is likely to be real fight.
Mr Mudavadi has launched an uncharacteristically aggressive campaign leading to fears that the party may split in the middle if the primaries are not handled properly.
Ukambani party delegates
The Local Government minister has recently been to Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, Busia, Kwale, Trans Nzoia, Kilifi, Taveta, Kajiado, Nandi, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Baringo and Uasin Gishu on a mission to convince party delegates to back him. This weekend, he will be at the Coast.
Mr Odinga launches his own countrywide campaign on Saturday with a meeting of party delegates from Ukambani counties in Machakos.
A programme released by Orange House shows the Prime Minister will be in Kajiado, Bungoma, Kakamega, Trans Nzoia and Turkana counties in the next one week.
During the countrywide tours, Mr Odinga “will sell the party policies to the delegates, exchange ideas on how to market the party to the masses and ask for the delegates’ support during the presidential nomination,” a statement from ODM sent to media said.
Before Mr Mudavadi started his campaigns, all was cool in ODM after the departure of renegade MPs led by Eldoret North’s William Ruto who aspires to vie for the presidency on a United Republic Party ticket.
Earlier seen as an underdog, Mr Mudavadi has rattled Mr Odinga’s supporters with his vigorous campaigns.
“Mr Mudavadi is fighting to remove from himself the notion of being a chocolate soldier, cute in uniform and boots but lacking in tenacity, grit, track and capacity,” Dr Joseph Magut, a political science lecturer at Kenyatta University says.
Mr Mudavadi, he adds, had largely projected himself as a person who was ready to play second fiddle to Mr Odinga.
So where has he got the inspiration to face his boss head on?
According to Dr Magut, Mr Mudavadi’s move could be as a result of pressure from his home turf to give a shot at the presidency.
Although opinion polls have consistently put Mr Odinga in the lead, his popularity has waned from a high of 48 per cent to 32 per cent, according to the latest Synovate survey.
The fact that Mr Odinga has lost significant support in the vote-rich Rift Valley because of the International Criminal Court matter and the departure of Mr Ruto and other MPs from the party, may also be tilting the balance of power in favour of Mr Mudavadi.
“There are some regions which, despite being in ODM, do not have full support for Raila. These include Rift Valley which could turn the tables on him in the primaries if polls are carried out at the county level. Mr Mudavadi could also be keen to reap the Central, Eastern and Coast delegates,” Dr Magut said.
Shipping in delegates
Observers also say the race will be tighter if it is fought at the county level as opposed to delegates being shipped to Nairobi.
Mr Mudavadi’s camp has been pushing for the grassroots option.
The proposal to hold primaries at county level was ratified by the party’s National Delegates’ Council, Parliamentary Group and National Executive Council in 2010 but the National Delegates’ Congress must approve it before it is used.
This may happen in March during the national elections.
Prof Frank Matanga, a Masinde Muliro University lecturer, said since ODM had been at the forefront in pushing for full implementation of devolution to give power to the people it should allow delegates at the county level to decide its presidential nominee in a transparent and democratic way.If held in Nairobi, only about 6,000 delegates would be required to take part in the presidential nominations as opposed to 18,000 at the counties.
Before Mr Mudavadi showed seriousness in seeking ODM’s presidential ticket, Mr Odinga was seen as the automatic candidate.
This may explain the concerns in his camp about a potentially divisive campaign for the ticket.
Party chief whip Jakoyo Midiwo, one of Mr Odinga’s supporters warned last week that the campaigns could send the wrong signal to supporters and that some might leave the party if Mr Odinga is not its presidential candidate.
Analysts have further warned that Mr Odinga’s and Mr Mudavadi’s fight for the ticket may cause factionalism in the party that could split it.
But Prof Matanga says the competition is good for ODM’s internal democracy.
“Musalia and his boss are taking it positively. The separate campaigns are unlikely to split the party,” Prof Matanga said.
Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo cautiously agrees. “We certainly must encourage internal democracy, but that latitude has to be exercised with care so we don’t send confusing signals to our supporters.”
Dr Magut said Mr Mudavadi is generally liked by the people and that in a level playing field he could be the candidate to beat.
Denied national outlook.
Denied national outlook.
He warns that ODM could collapse if Mr Mudavadi moves to another party as it would be denied the national outlook and that the Sabatia MP could still do well in a presidential race.”
Mr Mudavadi’s handlers, however, are keen to avoid the blunder he made in 2002 when he could easily have been a presidential candidate had he not left the opposition to return to Kanu.
This move cost him even his Sabatia seat, consigning him to the political cold for five years.
When he joined ODM, he was politically weak and it was no surprise that Mr Odinga easily beat him to a distant second in the 2007 presidential primaries.
But this time round, his camp is confident things will be different.
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