By OLIVER MATHENGE omathenge@ke.nationmedia.com AND JACOB NG’ETICH jngetich@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Saturday, February 4 2012 at 22:30
Posted Saturday, February 4 2012 at 22:30
Thursday’s demands by MPs allied to Prime Minister Raila Odinga that President Kibaki endorses him for the presidency has exposed one of the Head of State’s dilemmas as he prepares to retire.
Mr Odinga’s key allies, ODM whip Jakoyo Midiwo and Lands minister James Orengo, implored the President to endorse Mr Odinga’s candidacy to reciprocate the PM’s Kibaki Tosha declaration in 2002.
But in his characteristic style, President Kibaki steered clear of the debate and instead dwelt on the need for peace and unity in his speech during the commissioning of the newly refurbished Kisumu International Airport.(READ:Kibaki mum on call to back Raila for top seat)
Political analysts say that although the President is under pressure to endorse a successor, he is unlikely to do so.
This is because the President owes each of the candidates who have lined up to succeed him at State House.
Almost each of them has at one time or another made personal sacrifices to ensure that the President overcomes various obstacles during his tenure.
Mr Odinga’s Kibaki Tosha declaration helped to propel the Othaya MP to State House in 2002 when he resoundingly beat Kanu’s Uhuru Kenyatta.
But in 2007, it is Mr Kenyatta who put his own ambitions on hold to help Mr Kibaki to a disputed victory. The two nurse the feeling that the President owes them.
And when the country erupted in violence amid claims of a stolen election in 2008, it was Mr Kalonzo Musyoka who came to Mr Kibaki’s aid by throwing his lot with the President.
Mr Musyoka’s supporters have argued that had it not been for his support, President Kibaki’s second term could be have been in jeopardised.
Mr Musyoka may also expect endorsement from the President for his move to abandon the opposition and join the Kibaki government at the height of the 2008 post-election crisis.
While politicians push to have President Kibaki endorse their favourite presidential candidates, political analysts are divided over the value it will add to their candidature given the Head of State’s political style.
Political commentator Prof Larry Gumbe says endorsement by President Kibaki would be more psychological, especially for Mr Odinga, as it was unlikely to shift the President’s supporters to him.
“In 2007, Uhuru moved to Kibaki’s side because that is where his voting bloc was headed, the same with Ruto who had to gone to Raila’s side.
“If they hadn’t, they would have probably been marginalised politically,” Prof Gumbe told the Sunday Nation.
Lawyer Paul Muite dismisses the endorsement idea. “What should be encouraged is more public debates so that Kenyans can judge candidates by their policies, and I would be happy to participate in such,” Mr Muite said.
Dr Adams Oloo, a political science lecturer, argues the President’s endorsement of the PM would be an endorsement of “an incumbent by another incumbent” because the two have been sharing the running of government.
“If President Kibaki endorses Mr Odinga, then the race will be over, because the President still has allies, he is still influential, and given that the opinion polls indicate that the PM is still the man to beat, then the presidential elections will end on the first round,” said Dr Oloo.
He said in 2002, Mr Kenyatta who was a greenhorn in politics, was able to amass the votes he got to come second because of the endorsement by former President Moi.
But Moi University law lecturer Kipchumba Murkomen differs, saying that the endorsement would not add much value to the PM because there was no clear constituency that President Kibaki still holds.
“Looking at the political realignment within the President’s party indicates there is little that the President can still influence now.
“His troops have moved on, they are now too busy realigning themselves to heed the President’s call on whom to support,” said Mr Murkomen.
It is people in the Odinga and Kenyatta camps that have been most vocal in demanding that Mr Kibaki endorses their men.
Interestingly, the debate in Kisumu was initiated by Lari MP David Njuguna who has been perceived to be a close ally of Mr Kenyatta and has together with other Central Kenya politicians made similar demands on behalf of the former Finance minister.
Though, President Kibaki has never declared his support for him, Mr Kenyatta and those around him believe that the former Finance minister has the Head of State’s blessing to take over from him.
On his part, Eldoret North MP William Ruto made the President’s second term more manageable by dividing ODM and therefore splitting its Parliamentary majority.
Though Mr Ruto has consistently been on the opposite side, his relationship with Mr Kenyatta has brought him closer to the President.
The two have more often than not marshalled MPs allied to them to neutralise ODM in Parliament and push President Kibaki’s agenda, such as during the nominations of Attorney-General Githu Muigai and Director of Public Prosecutions Keriako Tobiko.
Having been declared “the only man in PNU” in some quarters, Gichugu MP Martha Karua was the most vocal Kibaki ally as the President faced accusations of rigging following the 2007 elections.
This was until she quit her Cabinet position and became a major critic of the President’s leadership.
Internal Security minister Prof George Saitoti has been in Kibaki’s government since 2003.
He was also the Education minister when the President launched free primary education, which has been touted as one of the most successful projects under the Kibaki administration.
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