“Observe development soberly, maintain your position, meet challenges calmly, hide your capacity and bide your time, remain free of ambition, never claim leadership”—Deng Xiaoping
It is the British that said politics is the art of the possible. But like latter day political pundits put it, maybe it is the art of the impossible. Who would have thought that it was possible for Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi to throw the greatest political challenge to Raila Odinga, yet so far and so early in the year, 2012?
Not since the late Michael Wamalwa Kijana defeated Raila Odinga in the controversial Ford-Kenya party chairmanship elections in 1995, has Raila faced such a frightening and threatening face-off. A challenge that has so much startled him—and his loyalists—as to form a Rapid Response Team within the party, to tackle and possibly tame Musalia Mudavadi.
The possibility that Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Local Government, would at some point challenge his party boss was always there. It is the “impossibility” of Musalia, second-in-command to Raila in the ODM party hierarchy, overnight awakening to discover that he has after all been a leopard in slumber. The analogy of the leopard shall presently be clear.
The architect of modern China, Deng Xiaoping, in the mid 1970s realised that Maoist China was a giant in slumber. It needed to awaken and realise its economic potential in a fast changing 20th Century. As head of the Communist party, Xiaoping advised the gradual introduction of market liberalisation and modernisation of the economy, but at the same time insisted on a tight grip on the reigns of party politics.
Addressing politburo, party members Xiaoping told them, “Observe development soberly, maintain your position, meet challenges calmly, hide your capacity and bide your time, remain free of ambition, never claim leadership.” In a time lapse a generation, mighty China has become so powerful economically, in the next 25 years, it will surpass the United States of America as the world’s biggest economy.
Has Musalia Mudavadi been observing developments soberly, hiding his capacity and biding his time? That is the question that has troubled the ODM party members since the beginning of this year.
Musalia was badly trounced by a political minnow in 2002, losing a seat he had inherited from his great and influential father—Moses Substone Mudavadi—the “King of Mululu”. The seat had been held by the Mudavadi family for over two decades. Traumatised by the defeat, he eventually left Kanu and joined opposition ranks and stuck with Raila Odinga. In the controversial 2007 general elections, he was Raila's running mate, a formidable team that nevertheless lost in a contentious presidential contest.
Now, he has thrown the gauntlet at the feet of his party boss and party-intended presidential candidate Raila Odinga challenging him to a duel that promises fireworks. But fireworks will be the least of the ODM party mandarins worries—the party actually faces eminent schism.
According to multiple sources who spoke to the writer, late last year, emissaries were allegedly sent to Musalia from the United Democratic Forum honchos to convince him to ditch his party ODM and join it as its presidential candidate. So the question of the day has been—Is Musalia Mudavadi ultimately headed for the UDF as its presidential candidate? The architects of this master-stroke had their best plans laid out: orchestrate a party crisis by inciting Musalia to take on the party presidential presumptive nominee—Raila Odinga.
According to the alleged UDF prevailing logic, the party nominations will generate a crisis, in which Musalia would insist on county delegates as the best way to nominate the party presidential candidate, while Raila would argue for the national delegate conference. According to the script, the nomination saga and “differences” would really turn controversial and perhaps the two protagonists would even become irreconcilable.
In the ensuing confusion and anger, Musalia will storm from the ODM party, to be eagerly received by a party that ostensibly respects “democracy and transparency”—all choreographed, of course. Thus, going by the alleged well-crafted scheme, what is happening in ODM has nothing to do with presidential nominations per se but about to scuttle Raila's efforts of succeeding President Kibaki.
UDF was crafted by a senior civil servant who serves as one of the closest presidential advisers to President Kibaki. When he was hired as an adviser, his mandate and terms of reference were clear and simple: to manage the president’s (contentious) second term and ensure that by the time President Kibaki was leaving office, his legacy would be secured
Contrary to Prof Mutua Makau suspicions that it could be former President Moi who is behind a resuscitated Musalia, it is, according to these impeccable sources, allegedly a President Kibaki-anointed project that is being overseen by his trusted adviser. Again, like Xiaoping said to the Communist Party political elites who helped him run China in the 1970’s, “I don’t care whether the cat is black or white, but whether it can catch mice.”
President Kibaki and his cabal of Kikuyu elites who surround him may indeed not care whether the next president will indeed be a Kikuyu or not—but they do care that that president should not be Raila Odinga. Thus, the project of hunting for President Kibaki’s replacement was initiated, after it become evidently clear that (Prince) Uhuru Kenyatta’s candidacy would indeed be riddled with political mines—as it has come to pass.
The choice of Musalia Mudavadi is an interesting one. Just like Prof Makau argues, he is one of the Moi’s orphans, plucked straight from a privileged political background propped up to succeed his hugely influential father without any sweat. It is not a wonder that when he was defeated by Moses Akaranga, an evangelical church pastor, he seemed confused, dejected and lost. But his pedigree remained—a prince from Luhyaland, who understands the politics of establishment and elite patronage.
Dr Musambayi Katumanga, a senior lecturer at the University of Nairobi says that the politics of the nation-state called Kenya have been instrumentalised. “The instrumentalisation of politics is something that you see being played out in the political parties,” argues Musambayi. “A political party without a figure head such as Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, Raila Odinga or Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka would be a shell.”
The attraction of Musalia to the elites that are ostensibly close to the outgoing President Kibaki is obvious for a number of reasons: he comes from a community that is not overtly antagonistic to Kikuyu political elite interests. Even though, as Mutahi Ngunyi argues, “there’s no tribe called Luhya—Luhya is an amalgamation of several dialects that sometimes are as distinct as two separate tribes can be.”
There are in fact between 16-18 Luhya dialects.
Musalia comes from an “aristocratic” background and is considered to be “harmless” and understands pro-establishment politics because he has been part of the ruling political elite patronage culture. Hence, it is assumed, by Kikuyu political barons, it would be easier to sell him to the largest voting block in the country—the Kikuyus.
But, it is his place within the context of the larger Western and Luhyaland political matrix that makes Musalia a political gem. Musambayi says that to understand Luhya politics, one needs to be conversant with three critical elements that are highly regarded in the community. They are the Luhya, the gizzard and the leopard. “Luhya refers to both a place where in the past administrative, judicial and conflict issues affecting the community were addressed and resolved. It was also a judicial council made of respected elders known for their own independence, courage and negotiation and patience.”
Musambayi argues that “the core of the Luhya deliberations was the freedom of expression, the right for everybody’s voice to be heard—whether meek or mighty.” The head of the Orange Rapid Response Team that has been constituted to engage Musalia in a forum supposedly where freedom of expression will be extolled is Fred Gumo—a fellow Luhya, but crucially known as “Mr Fix it”. Musambayi observes that the head of a constituted Luhya was “usually the most senior and respected elder—a mukhulundu or mukasa munene—the great arbitrator.” Whether Gumo is the mukasa munene is going to be seen in the way the Orange RRT handles the matter at hand.
To the Abaluhya people, imondo (gizzard) is considered to be the most delicious part of the igoho — the chicken. “That is why”, points out Musambayi, “It is reserved for the eldest male member of the family.” Invariably, then, this leads us to the politics of the gizzard. What the Luhyas are now are asking in view of Musalia’s reinvigorated presidential campaigns is; Is he ready to be recognised as the legitimate owner of the ethnic gizzard? Or let us put it this way—has he now decided that it is time, he reclaimed the ethnic gizzard?
The politics of ethnic gizzard becomes fundamental in Luhya politics because for the longest time, the “Vice Presidency pie” had always been dangled to the Luhya community since the onset of multiparty politics in 1992. Moi dangled it. Matiba did the same. The late Jaramogi also used it as a carrot. Kibaki appointed Michael Wamalwa Kijana as his Vice President in 2002.
Campaigning in Vihiga in 1992, the former President Moi reminded Luhyas the seat for the VP was reserved for—incidentally the young Musalia. Also campaigning in Kakamega, former MP Martin Shikuku told the people that he was Matiba’s running mate—“and who knows, I could end up being the president after Matiba.” Similarly, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga used the VP pie to lure the late Michael Wamalwa Kijana who was his second vice-chairman.
Several Luhya politicians, among them Moses Wetangula, Cyrus Jirongo, Soita Shitanda, Bonny Khalwale and Bifwoli Wakoli have been taunting Musalia, telling him to appropriate the ethic gizzard, in which case if he does not, one of them will do it. They have repeatedly reminded him of the logic that the Luhyas used to vote for the late Wamalwa Kijana with all his political foibles—shienu ni shienu (what is yours is yours).
Lastly, the embodiment and symbol of courage, struggle and determination for the Abaluhya is the leopard. Leopards are cunning, agile, ruthless, courageous and very fast. Until very recently, Musalia did not show any of these qualities associated with the leopard. So has Musalia suddenly discovered his agility? The courage that Musalia is exhibiting by taking Raila head on and his party supporters has somewhat taken aback some of them. His cunningness and ruthlessness are yet to be seen, but he certainly is moving with some speed, like a leopard that has identified its prey.
Senior Writer, Weekend Star
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