Sunday, July 3, 2011

G7 plots survival as Uhuru, Ruto date with Hague nears

By GAKUU MATHENGE
In two months time, the confirmation or dismissal of charges against the Ocampo six is likely to change the political landscape drastically regardless of the verdict.
The Hague process threatens to take out Deputy Prime Minister, Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto from next year’s presidential race if the charges are confirmed.
On the one hand, a confirmation would fundamentally shift relations, and radically configure power centres in Kenya politics. On the other hand a dismissal would cement their positions as the most formidable politicians to take on Prime Minister Raila Odinga next year.
But the big question about how Kenyans would react, and with what consequences if the charges are confirmed, remains dicey.

While opinion leaders say Kenya needs to openly discuss possible eventualities, and prepare for September, politicians insist there is no cause for alarm.
But evidence abounds of over-drive activities to refurbish and reactivate parties that have been moribund for years.
Ruto and Uhuru are refurbishing their political parties although they keep their game plans close to their chests.
Together with V-P Kalonzo Musyoka, they form part of the leadership of the PNU Alliance and the G7 political formation that is the hardest hit by The Hague process.

It is no longer secret Ruto is out to create a political home. Among big names who have come out to identify and campaign for the little known United Democratic Movement include former Speaker of the National Assembly Francis ole Kaparo, former Kanu era power man Mark Too, and Cabinet Minister, Ali Chirau Mwakwere.
"UDM is going places, Kaparo, Too and Mwakwere are part of our think tank. We are combining both the old and young. ODM-K (Kalonzo’s party) is refurbishing itself too. Kanu is preparing for elections. The G7 alliance members are building their houses in readiness for next year. When we finally come together, they country will sit up, listen and take notice," Assistant Minister Adan Duale said.

Last month, Uhuru gave instructions to Kanu’s National Organising Secretary Justin Muturi to commence Kanu’s recruitment process in preparation for party elections.
"You are also instructed to commence the process of aligning the Kanu Constitution with the new Constitution," says the memo seen by The Standard on Sunday. It is dated April 28, 2011, and signed by Uhuru.
ODM-K too has been organising region meetings of so called ‘grassroots opinion leaders’, which is expected to lead to grassroots elections.
While Kaparo admits he is gunning for the UDM’s chairmanship when elections are called in August, he dismisses as "gossip and rumours" any suggestions he was the UDM’s plan B, in case Ruto was out of the game.

Cherangany MP and Ruto’s confidant Joshua Kutuny denies any debate had taken place over a possible plan B.
"There is no need to talk about plan B since we have not seen anything so far in what Ocampo has been saying that should make anyone lose sleep. When he was asked to share evidence, he produced newspaper cuttings. Where on earth did newspaper cuttings become evidence in court?" Kutuny asked.
But Duale says any serious political project must be ready for contingencies.
"But we cannot discuss that at the moment. The point is no one should write the G7 group off. Whether we choose to go for the run off option, or decide to back one of us this is the formation to beat," Duale said. 

Their supporters and sympathisers are reluctant to talk about the matter for fear of being accused of dancing on their comrades’ political graves, while their opponents, especially in the ODM, are keen not to be seen to be playing into the propaganda about alleged collusion with ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo, to "fix" their rivals.
"This is a political tsunami in the making, especially if the charges are confirmed. No one should pretend it will be business as usual. The ramifications will be drastic across the country. We should stop discussing this matter in whispers and talk openly to prepare the country for any eventuality," former Centre for Multi-Party Democracy Chairman Larry Gumbe says. Prof Gumbe, a candidate for ODM secretary general’s position, urges political parties to be proactive, discuss, and develop party positions on the matter "to defuse anxiety" and trigger debate.

He says it is important to manage The Hague process responsibly so that "any fallout does not disintegrate the country".
"It is prudent and reasonable even for ODM to prepare for what is to come, as the most significant political player likely to become the target of hate campaign. There is need to make the point that the destiny of the country is not tied to the fortunes of a few individuals. Even the Ocampo Six need to be challenged to tell their supporters to remain calm as they defend themselves. That is the mark of visionary, bold and ethical leadership," Gumbe said.

Former Subukia MP Koigi Wamwere says Kenyans need to engage in open debate around possibilities of charges being confirmed, "so the public is ready when demagogues arrive with tales of persecution, victimisation, and betrayal to whip up emotions"
"Uhuru and Ruto have successfully managed to use ethnicity in their own defence. They are smart and are thinking beyond September and planning ahead. They plan to use The Hague process to perpetuate themselves as long as it takes. The strategy is to play kingmaker, and bless someone to inherit their mantle if they are not in the field themselves. Indeed, they are likely to be more popular and influential out of the race than in it," Koigi said.

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