Sunday, July 3, 2011

Battle for counties

By ALEX NDEGWA
The mandatory requirement for a regional spread of votes in presidential elections has sparked a scramble for counties among aspirants in President Kibaki's succession race.
To compel presidential candidates to reach beyond their own regions and tribes, the Constitution stipulates that the victor, besides commanding an absolute majority of the national vote, garners 25 per cent of the votes cast in at least a majority of the counties (24).
As presidential hopefuls make a flurry of campaign stops, their strategists are literally using coloured maps to graphically depict voter preferences in the various counties and devise ways to conquer new zones.
A voter casts her ballot in a past election. [PICTURE: FILE/STANDARD]

Pollster Synovate Research predicted in February that although Prime Minister Raila Odinga is the frontrunner, it is quite unlikely there would be a clear (first-round) winner.
Using former provinces the distribution of the 47 counties is as follows: Rift Valley (14), Eastern (8), Coast (6), Nyanza (6), Central (5), Western (4), North Eastern (3) and Nairobi (1).
On the basis of perceived strongholds and the ratings per province by each candidate in the surveys, none secures the mandatory number of counties.
Considering Raila recorded over 25 per cent ratings in Nairobi, Coast, Nyanza, North Eastern and Western, the maximum number of counties he would have got was 19.
If elections were held then, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta would have secured more than 25 per cent in Nairobi and Central and three in Eastern, a total of 9 counties. Additionally, the Kanu networks and so-called Diaspora would have netted him three in North Eastern, Rift Valley (2) and Mombasa (2), bringing his tally to 16.
Eldoret North MP William Ruto would have go over 25 per cent in the Rift Valley bloc, which has the highest number of counties (14), and Mombasa making a tally of (15) while Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka would have been assured of 25 per cent in Eastern, Nairobi, West Pokot and Mombasa (9).
Even if the factors were to remain constant, the number of presidential contestants, the choice of running mates and the political party alliances that emerge are factors that would influence the outcome of next year’s presidential vote.
Political analyst and High Court advocate Paul Mwangi explains that seasoned politicians and candidates riding on strong parties that have spread tentacles will have an edge.
"Those who have been in the field for long will have it much easier. For newcomers this will be a real test. Also it would require very powerful party structures that reach the grassroots to get support in as many counties," he says.
Mwangi adds: "The running mate is always about who helps you get the popular vote. Arguably if they get you the popular vote the counties will come along as a bonus."
A recent opinion poll paired different candidates to gauge the strengths of various presidential tickets, with Uhuru emerging the most preferred running mate for all the candidates.
Raila’s alliance with Uhuru was rated the most popular — nearly one half of all Kenyans supported it — but the political rift between the two almost certainly rules it out.
The Uhuru-Kalonzo ticket ranked second, recording 34 per cent.
With Ruto as the presidential candidate and Uhuru as running mate, 30 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the pair, with an equal percentage endorsing Kalonzo-Uhuru ticket.
The battle for counties has seen presidential candidates making a beeline for vote-rich Meru and Coast.
Ruto has told residents he will give the Meru community top priority when shopping for his running mate. Meru region is considered up for grabs since President Kibaki, whom voters in the area have backed in presidential elections since 1992, will not be eligible to run.
ODM reportedly backed off from its opposition of one judicial nominee fearing a backlash from the and other minority communities.
Aides to the politicians are however confident their respective candidates have support countrywide to muster the requisite threshold.
"Uhuru is able to capture over 25 per cent votes in about 26 counties. This is due to his support in the so-called Diaspora in Rift Valley, Nairobi, Central, Eastern regions and Kanu networks in upper and North Eastern regions," said the Deputy Prime Minister’s spokesman Munyori Buku.
The VP’s spokesman Kaplich Barsito said: "The VP is able to garner anything up to 31 counties. This is because he is a moderate who has acceptance across the country. He is not a candidate who is regionalised. Moreover he would tap the experience of being the longest serving MP after President Kibaki exits. "
If no candidate emerges outright winner a runoff election between the top two candidates shall be held.
Raila’s rivals — read Kalonzo, Uhuru and Ruto — consider the distribution requirement their trump card should they fail to pick one among them against the PM in the first round.
The thinking is that if everyone contests they would secure their respective zones so it’s unlikely any candidate would emerge outright winner. In the run-off they would then rally behind whoever among them emerges tops.
The chairman of the parliamentary Constitutional Implementation Oversight Committee Abdikadir Mohammed explains the threshold is to ensure the President-elect has national mandate.
"It was meant to cure the weaknesses of the first-past-the-post system of representation whereby the candidate who gets the majority of the votes cast is declared the winner regardless of the margin," Abdikadir told The Standard on Sunday.
He added: "Kanu stayed in power despite winning with a minority vote, 33 per cent, yet the divided opposition collectively commanded the majority vote."
The 1992 constitutional amendment only required the winning presidential candidate to poll more votes than other contenders, and Kanu easily obtained at least 25 per cent of the vote in at least five of eight provinces through gerrymandering.
Abdikadir adds: "Specifically the caveat on counties is to ensure not only does the winning presidential candidate command support from a majority of the population but also a majority of units in terms of territory."
It followed concerns of dominance by big tribes since in a first-past-the-post system members of larger tribes would win and not have to seek support of other tribes.
"But there’s still the question of what happens if one got half of the counties from one side of the country? What would be the political implications?" poses the Mandera Central MP.
Former Kabete MP Paul Muite is optimistic the new distribution requirement would break the ethnic jinx. "No community can satisfy this requirement and should none of the candidates pass the threshold, a run-off takes place. The beauty of a run-off is that people get to choose the lesser evil," Muite said.
"Presidents who have clear majority support are likely to have much greater legitimacy and be in a stronger position to push their own policy agenda than those elected on a small plurality of the vote," states a 2005 publication by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
Equally the President-Elect requires sufficient number of MPs otherwise his/her administration would have a rough ride in the National Assembly.
 

Raila
1.Nairobi
2.Migori
3. Homabay
4. Kisumu
5. Siaya
6. Busia
7. Vihiga
8. Kakamega
9. Mombasa
10. Narok
11. Kajiado
12. Nyamira
13. Kisii
14. Kilifi
15. Marsabit
16. Wajir
17. Garissa
18. Tana River
19. Turkana
 
Kalonzo
1. Kitui
2. Machakos
3. Makueni
4. West Pokot
5. Nairobi
6. Mombasa
7. Tharaka Nithi
8. Meru
9. Embu
 
Uhuru
1. Nairobi City
2. Kirinyaga
3. Nyeri
4. Kiambu
5. Murang’a
6. Nyandarua
7. Meru
8. Tharaka-Nithi
9. Embu
10. Nakuru
11. Laikipia
12. Mombasa
13. Marsabit
14. Isiolo
15. Mandera
16. Wajir

 
Ruto
1. Uasin Gishu
2. Elgeyo/Marakwet
3. Nandi
4. Baringo
5. Narok
6. Kajiado
7. Kericho
8. Bomet
9. Trans Nzoia
10. West Pokot
11. Samburu
12. Nairobi
13. Mombasa
14. Turkana
15. Nakuru

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