What suspects’ campaign means for Kenya

By KWENDO OPANGA
Posted  Saturday, April 16 2011 at 17:02

In Summary

• What I said has come to pass. Indeed, I have held the view that Raila long lost the propaganda war to Ruto

This is how I opened my October 24, 2010 column that proved hugely unpopular: “It may be easier for suspended Higher Education Minister William Ruto to win his battles in the courts of law than for Prime Minister Raila Odinga to win his against Mr Ruto in the court of public opinion.”

This is how I ended that piece: “Mr Ruto certainly knows how to frame an issue and an opponent. This, he says, is not about fraud; it is about 2012. You see, I’m more sinned against than sinning! If Raila says the same, he will use twice the energy Ruto needed to convince.”

What I said in that opener and conclusion has come to pass. Indeed, I have held the view, before and since that piece, that Raila long lost the propaganda war to Ruto. And that was before Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta publicly warmed up to and teamed up with Ruto.

That was also before it became obvious The Hague-based International Criminal Court Prosecutor, Luis Moreno Ocampo, had more than a passing interest in Ruto and Uhuru, and before he fingered the duo and four others for alleged crimes against humanity.

Of course, that was before the acid-tongued pair was joined by a loud retinue of Pharisees and Philistines, and before this angry and motley party hit the road for hate-filled political rallies christened ‘‘prayer meetings’’.

Five months since that column piece, Kenya’s political landscape is unrecognisable. Now, people who may be arraigned for allegedly masterminding rape and murder come across as innocent victims of a vicious and vindictive, malicious and malevolent PM.

That is the way principally Ruto, and to a degree Uhuru, have repeatedly defined and framed Raila.

They have done it in a fashion Nazi propaganda chief, Josef Goebbels, would have applauded, presenting themselves as saviours of Kenya from their tormentor.

Nazi propaganda succeeded because Hitler and Goebbels identified an enemy called the Jews and the Versailles Treaty.

Ruto and Uhuru have identified Raila, ICC and Ocampo as their enemies and, therefore, enemies of Kenya. Their propaganda campaign is paying off. But what does this mean for the politics of the land?

First, that it is possible that if the two maintain this momentum and the ICC process does not rule both of them or either of them out of the 2012 presidential race, that election will be a referendum on Raila.

Presidential race

Second, if one of them or both of them are ruled out of the 2012 presidential race on account of charges preferred against them by the ICC, they will rally behind one of those in their column to make sure Raila does not make it to State House. Again, unfortunately, the election would be a referendum on Raila.

Third, realising that the Kikuyu, Kalenjin and Kamba alliance was easily dismissed as a tribal outfit, Uhuru and Ruto have reached out to other leading lights of more communities to form the so-called G7. The G7 stands for all of Kenya’s former provinces without Raila’s native Nyanza.

Fourth, this is a steal from Raila’s 2007 strategy that gave rise to the Pentagon. Then Central Province was not represented on the Orange Democratic Movement’s (ODM’s) apex decision-making organ.

This time round the boot is on the other foot for the PM; the younger men are locking him, and his community, out of the equation.

Alternative candidate

Fifth, that there is talk within ODM ranks of an alternative presidential candidate to Raila means one of two things.

Either the steam rolling vehicle that the PM assembled in the lead-up to the 2007 General Election is now a pale shadow of its former self or, two, party faithful have begun to think that Raila is on his last legs politically.

Sixth, that it was not a slip of the tongue when Raila recently said that he does not have to be ODM’s presidential candidate in 2012. If this is a thought that Raila could entertain, then he would also think of somebody to support for the presidency.

If Raila does not run for the presidency, or runs and loses, then, like his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, he will go down in the annals of history as the hero who reigned but never ruled.

And, what besieged Charles Njonjo called siasa ya kumalizana (the politics of finishing one another) will have triumphed over substance.

Last, Ruto and Uhuru, having so cleverly defined Raila, must hope ICC and Ocampo will not be the ones to define them.

The writer is a media consultant opanga@diplomateastafrica.com