Ruto walks into bigger challenges despite successes

By Oscar Obonyo
Eldoret North MP William Ruto has undoubtedly emerged as one of the most powerful politicians.
Ruto has a formidable following, perhaps only overshadowed by that of the two principals - President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
And chances are Ruto, who commands a fervent following among a section of Rift Valley MPs, will flex even more political muscle this year.
Besides the support from his turf, the suspended Higher Education Minister has gained considerable influence over the Tenth Parliament.
How parliamentarians, for instance, suddenly rallied behind a Motion to pull out of the International Criminal Court on December 22, last year, remains a surprise to many.
Coming after ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo’s announcement of six key post-election violence suspects, the timing was particularly suspicious.
Ruto’s ally and Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto moved the Motion.
There is no denying the anti-Hague momentum picked up after listing of Ruto and five others. Ruto kicked off the anti-Ocampo storm leading to Parliament’s eventual decision to dump ICC.

Eldoret North MP William Ruto. Photo: File/Standard

Financial might
The development in House before going on recess might not necessarily be credited to Ruto and his allies, as it appears to be a product of vested interests among allies of the ‘Ocampo Six’.
With help from Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Ruto has doubtlessly joined the elite club of Kenya’s "untouchables". Politicians not watching Ruto will do so at their own peril.
And because of the numbers, coupled with financial might, none wants to stand in his way. Others are falling over each other to offer support, including members of the House Business Committee who prioritised the Ruto Motion.
Ruto has virtually had his way, pushing his agenda in Parliament and manoeuvring his way out of several battles. This, he has achieved with help of central Kenya MPs, including surviving a censure Motion over the maize scandal, when he was Agriculture minister.
However, there have been whispers about nightlong meetings and money exchanging hands ahead of some of Ruto’s "successful" fight backs.
Environment Minister John Michuki previously lamented on the floor of the House of the alleged "scratch my back, I scratch yours" ploys employed by the pro-Ruto camp.
That Ruto controls a section of Rift Valley MPs and enjoys considerable influence in Parliament is not in doubt.
But it is one thing to control the House and another to enjoy support of the masses and opinion leaders outside Parliament.
What is important for Ruto, though, is that he currently enjoys support from within and will maximise this in 2011 to realise his political goals.
Vote basketMoi University School of Law lecturer Kipchumba Murkomen partly attributes Ruto’s political rise to his firm home support. He achieved this after outwitting favoured political heavyweights, including Industrialisation Minister Henry Kosgey and former influential minister Nicholas Biwott.
"With the home vote-basket secure, Ruto, a strong and decisive politician, is now anticipated to focus on selling his ideas to Kenyans ahead of 2012," Mr Murkomen told The Standard On Sunday.
Rift Valley politician and former Commissioner of the disbanded Electoral Commission of Kenya, Mr Nathaniel Chebelyon describes Ruto as a schemer per excellence who knows how to make and retain support in Rift Valley.
"The young man (Ruto) has succeeded in winning over our people firmly to his side. And as demonstrated at the recent referendum, they will solidly stand by him, no matter the current developments," he says.
In the meantime, Murkomen does not rule out the possibility of the adage "there are no permanent enemies in politics, only permanent interests" coming into play.
Ruto, he opines, has a better chance working with Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
In the meantime – even as his political star rises – Ruto has a perceived dark past to deal with. The alleged adventures with the public coffers since 1992, his pending land grabbing court case, and the big one in The Hague, could halt his political ambitions.
Hard politicsFormer minister Amukowa Anangwe says Kenyans may be witnessing the beginning of the end of Ruto. "It is as if the gods have conspired against him and he cannot possibly survive as an individual political leader. He can only play the kingmaker and hope it will be reciprocated," he says.
But Ruto maintains he will circumvent all the impediments and "shame the devil".
The Eldoret North MP has four things to his advantage—astuteness in playing hard politics, numbers from his populous community, youthfulness and deep pockets.