Raila seeks to regain Rift Valley support

By Oscar Obonyo
Youth and Sports Minister Paul Otuoma recalls vividly how some Orange party colleagues from Rift Valley met in early 2009 and swore to make Prime Minister Raila Odinga "absolutely unappealing" to Kenyans.
"Some confided in me that: ‘Tunataka kupaka huyo mtu matope ya kutosha mpaka Kalenjin akimuangalia tena hataamini eti huyo ndiye arap Mibei waliompenda’ (we want to smear him with all manner of filth so that members of our community will not recognise that he is their beloved arap Mibei)," the minister told The Standard on Sunday.
Arap Mibei is the PM’s nickname among Kalenjin supporters and MPs from the community have almost certainly achieved their goal.
Today many of former supporters hold the ODM leader in low regard.
Local legislators have spread the anti-Raila sentiments beyond Rift Valley region. Under the loose arrangement, they have teamed up with the PM’s political rivals allied to Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka as well as Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.
This is the trend of events that could easily become the PMÌs political nightmare this year. How he wades through this eventful year will largely depend on how he stems the forces growing against him.
Most powerfulThe anti-Raila forces coalesce around Eldoret North MP William Ruto, who has fallen out with the ODM leader. Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, serve as joint deputy party leaders.
"The propaganda perpetuated by anti-PM legislators defies common sense and logic. They are sheer orchestrated malice aimed at isolating the ODM leader," observes Otuoma.
Raila, according to his rivals, is both the most powerful politician on the Kenyan soil yet holder of a hollow and powerless docket of premier.
They push this argument interchangeably depending on what suits them at the moment.
When, for instance, he has reprimanded or suspended a minister he has been reminded he is not the appointing authority. Yet still when some have featured in the ICC list of post-election violence suspects, it has been suggested his "powerful" office influenced the list.
Courtesy of these repeated claims, Raila walks into 2011 as one of the leaders with one of the heaviest political baggage. Irrespective of whether claims against him are true of false, Kenyatta University political science lecturer, Dr Joseph Magut, observes the propaganda will greatly harm the PM’s political career.
Key alliesAccording to the don, the PM must work hard and fast to correct the impression created by his rivals if he hopes to win back one of his core political support in Rift Valley.
Indeed some MPs confess that the attack on Raila is just "part of the game" and they have nothing personal against the Premier.
Conceding they are beneficiaries of the ODM wave triggered by Raila in 2007, the MPs from sections of Rift Valley nonetheless say they had to stop the PM.
They have, accordingly, embarked on a mission to loosen Raila’s firm grip. In what seems like a choreographed strategy, the PM has become a regular target of attacks in a move to deflate his popularity.
Yet still, others are at it for fear of political dominance by the experienced politician.
As Cherengany MP, Joshua Kuttuny confessed to The Standard on Sunday last year, part of the strategy is to dissuade Raila from "owning" Rift Valley voters.
"You get scared over the overwhelming influence that Raila exerts in Luo-Nyanza, where his word is law. If anyone has to have such dominance in our community, it should be our own rather than an outsider," says the vocal legislator.
It appears the premier’s luck with the populous Kalenjin community has run out.
His grip on the people who voted for him en masse in the 2007 presidential elections started to loosen in June 2008 following the tragic air crash that claimed Roads minister and Kipsigis kingpin Kipkalya Kones.
Kones and Home Affairs Assistant Minister Lorna Laboso, who also perished in the same crash, were Raila’s key allies in the region. As fate would have it, Industrialisation Minister Henry Kosgey, the PM’s remaining key pointman in the region after he fell-out with Ruto, now features on the so-called Ocampo six list.
Kosgey is not just a trusted ally to the PM but national chairman of the Orange party. The latest development leaves Raila politically deficient of foot soldiers.
The PM is faced with a similar quagmire in Eastern Province, where he was building political support, especially in Ukambani region. His key ally and ODM Pentagon member, Charity Ngilu, faces a possible censure Motion of corruption allegations.
Opinion polls
Raila will be slowed down significantly if indeed the Water minister is elbowed aside from Cabinet. The exit of Trade Assistant Minister Harun Mwau from Government over alleged involvement in drug trafficking is also not good news for the PM’s campaign strategy in Ukambani.
Although not a direct ally of the PM, Mwau is a sworn political foe of VP Kalonzo — the region’s heavyweight.
The current goings on notwithstanding, the PM remains the most popular politician and favourite candidate for presidency, according to several opinion polls.
This realisation, according to Prof Amukowa Anangwe, confirms the PM’s competitive advantage. To stay afloat, advices the former minister, Raila must repackage himself and reach out to Kenyans afresh.
And unless he adopts the policy of pushing his political wheelbarrow upside down, the PM risks collecting more garbage along the way throughout the year.