Who won, and who lost, after the poll

By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted Saturday, August 7 2010 at 07:59

It’s only three days after the referendum and I am already sick and tired of all the political correctness. I don’t think it’s credible to say – uncritically – that there were no winners and losers on August 4 because “Kenya won”.

Good people, let’s be serious. Some people won big, and others lost just as big. The referendum pitted two diametrically opposed visions of Kenya against each other.

The ‘Reds’ fought to retain the past, a culture of impunity and dictatorship. The ‘Greens’ sought to establish the Second Republic, a future of hope and accountability. Biggest winners are Kibaki and Raila

The future vanquished the past. Kenya will never be the same again. Who won, and who lost?

You know Kenya won already. So, that’s not why you are reading my column. What you want is some “scoop”.

The biggest winners are President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga. But Mr Odinga is even a bigger winner.

For Mr Kibaki, the new constitution is about his legacy. He is now officially the Father of the Second Republic. We have no choice but to forgive his trespasses and transgressions.

There is more. I believe that President Kibaki has said “Raila Tosha” in his heart. He knows that Mr Odinga has the mettle to safeguard his legacy and build the Second Republic.

That’s why he has become bosom buddies with Mr Odinga. Mr Kibaki wants to clean up the mess of the 2007 elections.

The post-election atrocities weigh heavily on his mind. What a better way for him, a Kikuyu, to hand the baton over to Mr Odinga, a Luo, and bury this “family feud” forever?

Mr Odinga seems to be Mr Kibaki’s heir apparent. Mr Odinga’s opponents should think about this.

The new constitution is the most significant event in Kenya since 1964. Why would Mr Kibaki make Mr Odinga his key partner on the Constitution if he didn’t want to anoint him? It’s simple math – add two and two.

I believe that Mr Kibaki’s intentions will become manifest soon.

Higher Education minister William Ruto is also a winner – sort of. Mr Ruto, a gutsy political operative and ideological scion of former President Daniel arap Moi, acquitted himself admirably.

True, he ran the ‘No’ campaign based on bald-faced misrepresentations and fear-mongering, but he emerged as a leader of men. He singlehandedly steered the ‘Reds’ and gave a lot of oomph to the opposing forces.

Musyoka’s plan backfired

The Christian clergy would have been at sea without his eloquent, charismatic, and unbending leadership. Give the devil his due. Mr Ruto emerged as his own man, able to stand up against Mr Odinga and President Kibaki.

There is no doubt he is the unquestioned Kalenjin kingpin. He whipped them into line.

But Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka emerged as a loser. Mr Musyoka saw the constitution as an Odinga project that would propel his nemesis to State House in 2012.

He thought that he could ingratiate himself to the conservative Christian clergy – to which he has deep roots – and neutralise Mr Odinga’s leadership of the constitution. It was not to be. The plan backfired when most Christians defied the clergy.

Mr Musyoka then became a “watermelon” – a duplicitous ‘Yes’ proponent. His “hidden” message to the Akamba was that a vote for the new constitution was a vote for Mr Odinga for president. He allowed – some say encouraged – Mr Ruto and ODM-Kenya Members of Parliament to run wild in Ukambani.

President Kibaki put the squeeze on Mr Musyoka in the last several weeks of the campaign when it became clear that Ukambani was about to be lost to the ‘Reds’.

Many Akamba appeared to have drank so much of the Musyoka “Kool-Aid” that they were reluctant to listen to the entreaties of Mr Nzamba Kitonga, one of their own, and the chair of the Committee of Experts (CoE) on constitutional review.

Mr Musyoka knew that the defeat of the Constitution in his backyard would not augur well for his political career. That’s why he fought so hard in the last few weeks to salvage a ‘Yes’ win. But only the yeoman work of Water minister Charity Ngilu prevented a total calamity in Ukambani.

My point is that Mr Musyoka made a blunder. He may never recover from this miscalculation. President Kibaki obliquely criticised Mr Musyoka at the last rally in Kitui before the vote.

Showing rare emotion, Mr Kibaki compared the thin crowd at the Kitui Stadium with the massive sea of humanity that had greeted him in Kisumu the day before.

Uhuru missed a great opportunity

The not-so-subtle point was that Mr Odinga could bring out his supporters while Mr Musyoka couldn’t, or wouldn’t. I will let you draw your own conclusions. My crystal ball tells me that the lacklustre ‘Yes’ Kamba vote has politically injured him.

The other big losers are Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta and the Christian clergy.

Mr Kenyatta lost by being a “watermelon” for too long. He missed a great opportunity.

The clergy may have lost its hold on the people forever. The reverence for them may have gone.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the Kenya Human Rights Commission.