‘No’ results shock VP, Ngilu in Ukambani

Key ‘Yes’ leaders in Lower Eastern Province, popularly known as Ukambani, exuded great confidence prior to Wednesday’s referendum.

But the results have shocked Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Water minister Charity Ngilu, who put aside their perennial turf wars to push for the new constitution.

The ‘Yes’ team won in 11 of the 17 constituencies in the region but the margin was so small that overall, the percentage was just 51 against the Reds’ 49.

The outcome is sure to raise questions especially about the political influence and future of Mr Musyoka.

Mid-wifing constitution

It does not help matters that the two people who have been at the forefront of mid-wifing the new constitution — Justice minister Mutula Kilonzo and Committee of Experts chairman Nzamba Kitonga — are both from the region.

The ‘No’ team won in six constituencies — Mwala, Machakos Town, Kilome, Kaiti, Kitui South and Kitui West. Leaders in the ‘Yes’ camp yesterday said they were stunned by the outcome.

“Ukambani has always been obedient to the authority; Kambas have never gone against the government’s wishes, this one has puzzled me,” Mrs Ngilu said.

The ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ battle in the region was just too close to call, she said. “In some instances it was difficult to tell which way the vote would go as the margins were just minimal.”

Now with the wisdom of hindsight, the ‘Yes’ team admits it was too lethargic to take on its opponents who were first off the blocks the moment Attorney General Amos Wako published the proposed constitution on May 6.

“We took our time ... there was reluctance on the part of some of us to counterattack the moment the ‘No’ camp pitched tent in the region,” former Makueni MP Peter Maundu, one of the ‘Yes’ strategists in the region, said by telephone on Thursday.

Mrs Ngilu admits that they failed to grasp early warnings that the ground was hostile. “We actually moved in three weeks to the referendum day, nearly two months after our rivals... the stakes were high”, she said.

There are many in the area who say Mr Musyoka must take a fair share of the blame for the ‘Yes’ side’s poor showing. The Vice President was slow to embrace the new constitution, attracting accusations of being a watermelon — the term that came to be associated with people who were not sure which side to take on the constitution divide.

In many meetings in the region, Mr William Ruto, the defacto leader of the Reds, kept telling people that Mr Musyoka was with them. Mr Musyoka’s key allies were also divided. A case in point was that of Kangundo MP Johnstone Muthama.

On the day, the MP was addressing a ‘Yes’ rally in Nairobi, his wife was at a ‘No’ meeting in Machakos where she also gave the impression that her husband, one of the VP’s key lieutenants, was with her.

“Mr Musyoka, who was seen by many as the key leader in Ukambani took too long to give his people direction”, says former Kibwezi MP Kalembe Ndile, an early ‘Yes’ supporter who later defected to ‘No’.

The mixed signals emerged in the region, he said, when many of Mr Musyoka’s trusted allies in ODM Kenya joined the ‘No’ camp, creating the perception that even the VP was with them.

Many converts

“With his MPs singing ‘No’ songs, the assumption was that the VP was backing them, so as they moved round Ukambani they got many converts.” One of the key campaign issues, especially among the politicians in the region, was counties.

There was a strong feeling that the region had been short-changed by receiving just three counties and that given its big population, it deserved at least one or two more. The area was divided into Machakos, Kitui and Makueni counties.

Then there was the church factor. Mrs Ngilu and Mr Maundu actually believe it was the church, much more than the politicians, that swayed the people against the proposed constitution. The church’s opposition was driven by the clauses on abortion and kadhis courts.

“In Ukambani locals trust two institutions, the government and the Church. This time the government appeared to be fighting the Church so they took sides,” says the Kitui Central MP whose constituency managed 19,416 votes for the ‘Yes’ against the ‘No’s 16,201.

“The Church is always there with our people tackling problems of food, water and diseases; the church tries to uplift them from socio-economic bondage. Every Sunday they spend the whole day on church matters and this time the church was telling them that the government was the bad guy.”

In addition, she added, the church intimidated voters by getting the clergy and laymen to be hired as returning officers in some areas. “You go to vote and there you see your pastor or church member as an election official. Definitely you will feel chided. It’s all psychological,” says the minister.

Mrs Ngilu says she is however happy that Kenyans will get a new constitution. “We have been fighting for it for along time, we have finally gotten it, the next process is to heal any wounds that were inflicted by ‘Yes’ or ‘No’. We are all Kenyans”.

Mr Maundu does not rule out a new political order taking shape in the region. “Politics is all about dynamism. Given the results, the VP has to put his house in order for, as the referendum talk fades the next one will be the 2012 General Election which is less than two years away,” said Mr Maundu.

Kibwezi MP Philip Kaloki who weathered the ‘No’ storm in his constituency to give ‘Yes’ a slim win defends the VP saying he played his role well. “The entire campaign period was hard for him, he had to play a delicate balancing act and I feel it will be unfair to blame him for the region not behaving the way provinces like Nyanza, Western or Rift Valley for that matter did.”

Prof Kaloki feels the referendum wave is unlikely to influence the way Kenyans will vote in 2012. Mutito MP Kiema Kilonzo, the region’s key campaigner for the Reds, was probably the biggest loser as he failed to deliver his constituency. Talking of the loss in a telephone interview yesterday, Mr Kilonzo blamed the ‘Yes’ team “for applying unorthodox tactics against me”.

“They went personal in their campaigns, their strategy was to destroy me, but we are happy with the results, we have rested our case”, he said. Mwala’s Isack Muoki, who stuck to the ‘No’ side despite pressure from his party to decamp, won his constituency with 20,453 votes against 19,489 for the ‘Yes’ side.

His counterpart in Machakos Town, Dr Victor Munyaka, also had the last laugh when the constituency gave the ‘Yes’ a beating by garnering 27,654 against ‘Yes’ 22,069. On Thursday, Mr Muoki said it would be futile to use the referendum results and the position taken by leaders who opted to defy the VP to fight them. “We were no fighting when we were campaigning, we are all Kenyans,’’ Mr Muoki said.