By Alex Ndegwa
Alliance between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his deputy Uhuru Kenyatta, is the most popular ticket for presidency in the 2012 General Election, says a new opinion poll.
Coming weeks after their much-publicised meeting at Raila’s Karen home, where Uhuru led the Kenyatta family to wish the Premier good health, findings from the Infotrak Harris Poll are likely to further fuel speculation on the political alliance involving sons of Kenya’s prominent families.
Though the survey says Uhuru leads the pack for running mate for all the presidential candidates, it is his alliance with Raila that is the most popular, drawing the support of nearly one half of all Kenyans.
With 43 per cent endorsing Uhuru as Raila’s running mate, hence designating him the presumptive deputy president, the alliance appears to be the potential deal breaker, according to the survey conducted in August.
The pollster interviewed 1200 respondents in all the provinces.
The new Constitution requires that the winning presidential candidate garners more than half of all the votes cast and at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in each the counties.
The survey indicates one in every three Kenyans (32 per cent) are convinced it is a good political alliance while nearly a third (28 per cent) suggest it will iron out Kikuyu-Luo differences.
"The Raila-Uhuru Alliance is not only viewed as great but also a cohesion tool for tribal differences?" says the pollster, alluding to the tension that has characterised relations between two of the largest communities in the country.
Consequently, the Kanu chairman elbows out Local Government Musalia Mudavadi, who gets the backing of 23 per cent of respondents for running mate. It is unclear what factors have influenced the relegation of Mudavadi, who is ODM’s deputy leader and marshalled the Western votes in favour of the new constitution in the just-concluded referendum.
Also the public perception of bad blood between the PM and VP appears to have stuck since only nine per cent suggests the Mwingi North MP forges an alliance with the Langata MP.
Much fewer (8 per cent) hedge their bet on Higher Education Minister William Ruto to run together with his party leader, perhaps convinced their relationship is irreparable due to the apparently irreconcilable differences.
Ironically, 15 per cent of the respondents from Nyanza, the PM’s stronghold, fancy Uhuru as Raila’s running mate. Instead, 44 per cent of respondents from Nyanza prefer Mudavadi.
And amid reports of some mulling over the revival of the KKK alliance, an acronym for
Kikuyu, Kamba and Kalenjin alliance, fronted by Uhuru, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Higher Education Minister William Ruto, the poll shows the Uhuru-Kalonzo ticket seems to be the surest bet if the alliance hopes to assume high office.
This is because more than a third of the Respondents, 34 per cent, think Kalonzo is best suitable to be Uhuru’s running mate.
Interestingly, an equal number, 18 per cent, each touted for Ruto and Mudavadi.
With Ruto as the presidential candidate, one in every three Kenyans (30 per cent) picks Uhuru as the running mate, with Musalia (20 per cent) beating Kalonzo (19 per cent) to the presumptive deputy president position.
But with the Vice President seeking to succeed President Kibaki, less than a third of Kenyans, 29 per cent, suggest Uhuru as his running mate. The making of the Eastern-Western alliance unfolds as 20 per cent of respondents tip Mudavadi while 19 per cent back Ruto to be Kalonzo’s running mate.
Raila still leads the pack in the race for State House with 46 per cent suggesting he is the most suitable for president in 2012.
The Lang’ata MP recorded over 50 per cent approval ratings in five provinces, his
presidential candidature least popular in Eastern (12 per cent), Central (13 per cent)and Rift Valley (26 per cent).
But Uhuru?s popularity has surged with the poll placing him second at 13 per cent in the presidential race and Ruto third (10 per cent).
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