Five reasons why the ‘Greens’ won and the ‘Reds’ lost the referendum

By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted Thursday, August 12 2010 at 17:42

It was a climax like no other. After two decades of futility, Wanjiku is Sisyphus no more. She has given birth to the Second Republic. On August 4, the First Republic died. Fear, like Count Dracula, was vanquished by hope.

The arc of history is long, but it bends towards justice. Like Israelites, the “citizens of Kenya” crossed the River Jordan into the Promised Land. Now the difficult task of implementing the constitution begins. How did this miracle happen?

I am not a praying man, but I will tell you why. Hope springs eternal. The referendum was an epochal contest between hope and despair. The past pitted against the future. In that struggle, the future always wins, beats the past.

This is the preordained cycle of life. The old must die for the new to live. It may take a year, a decade, or a century, but the future inevitably triumphs. That, in a nutshell, is the story of August 4.

There are five key reasons why the “Greens” won and the “Reds” lost. Never mind the symbolism of the colours. One denotes life, the other is macabre.

The first, and most important, reason for the historic win is Wanjiku. ‘She’ turned the tables against the double-speaking elite. The common people “led” their leaders. Wananchi were sick and tired of being taken round and round by the elite. They demanded an end to the charade.

The most strategic among them — President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga — adroitly harnessed the public’s anger and took charge. The two instinctively knew Wanjiku would violently “divorce” them if they failed this test of history.

The second reason was the prescience of the two principals. Mr Odinga is a reformer by nature. Tearing down the walls of the predatory Kenyan state is likely to be his lasting legacy. He knew the constitution would be the key, and he grasped the opportunity early when others were napping.

The masses craved a leader, and he rose to fill the vacuum. He acted like a statesman.

President Kibaki understood that he would write himself into the history books by leading the way. Now we have no choice but to forgive his trespasses and transgressions. In a paradox, the man from Othaya has become the father of the Second Republic.

The third reason was the leadership of the “Reds”. Not many “citizens of Kenya” were willing to follow former President Moi and Agriculture minister William Ruto off the cliff.

In his old age, Mr Moi has become a national embarrassment. Most people believe he should have answered for the gross abuses of his regime.

The world knows that Mr Moi is impunity personified. He has abused the mercies accorded him. Together with Mr Ruto, his prized pupil, they wanted to keep Kenya hostage. But to most people, Mr Ruto is not a paragon of virtue. Why would voters have trusted this pair?

To compound matters, the “Reds” were also led by “unattractive” church leaders. I would never have John Cardinal Njue and Canon Peter Karanja plead my case before any jury. Canon Karanja wears an angry look. He sounded hateful.

Cardinal Njue cut the figure of an uncaring man lacking in compassion. He did not get even the basics right, like why a woman might need to terminate a pregnancy to save her life. Ditto their attacks on kadhis courts. The Moi-Ruto-Njue-Karanja quartet could not rock a baby to sleep even if they tried.

Fourthly, the “Reds” ran a campaign of lies and fear-mongering. The “citizens of Kenya” are not stupid, and the “Reds” made the mistake of insulting their intelligence. We saw them — Mr Moi, Mr Ruto, Mutito MP Kiema Kilonzo, Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo, and other “No” acolytes — tell a zillion bold-faced lies about the draft constitution. They lost credibility with the people. Every person of substance fled their camp.

The “Reds” were dealt a mortal blow when the biggest “water-melons” — Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta — reluctantly turned “Green’’.

Finally, the “Reds” lost because the new constitution is a great document. Kenyans wanted to turn the page of history on Mr Moi and his legacy.

What the people have said is that the political mantle belongs to those who unequivocally supported the birth of the Second Republic.

The thrashing of the “Reds” and the humbling of the “water-melons” is as much about the Constitution as it is about 2012.

Dr Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School, and chair of the Kenya Human Rights Commission.