Can VP Kalonzo Deliver Ukambani?

Isaac Ongiri/Philip Muasya
3August 2010

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Nairobi — THE day before the historic referendum, doubts remain over whether Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka can deliver a resounding Yes vote in his Ukambani backyard.

The National Security Intelligence Service has reportedly warned government that support for the proposed constitution is shaky in Eastern as well as in the Rift Valley.

At a rally last week, the Vice-President threatened to quit if the proposed constitution does not secure a majority in Ukambani, although his aides later denied that he had said so.

Earlier this year Kalonzo was perceived to be lukewarm in his campaign for the draft as he claimed to be personally for Yes but insisted that everyone had the right to criticise or oppose the proposed constitution.

Some analysts believe that caused some voters to perceive him as a "watermelon" and to reduce their support for the draft.

Yesterday President Kibaki and Kalonzo visited Kitui to plead with Ukambani voters to support the proposed constitution.

President Kibaki reportedly decided to personally return to Ukambani yesterday after the NSIS informed him that Ukambani was at risk.

"We have received warnings that Ukambani is a 50-50 zone and we have heightened campaigns in the area to tilt the balance," said a senior official at Harambee House.

Kibaki personally requested the VP to intensify his campaigns in Ukambani to score a convincing win at the referendum, according to informed sources "Let it not be said that when other communities were involved in the realisation of a new constitution in this country that the Kamba people got confused and lagged behind," Kalonzo told the rally in vernacular yesterday.

"All the other provinces are supporting the proposed new law, my people I ask of you not to let me down," Kalonzo said at the Kitui Stadium.

A Synovate survey in July indicated that while 49 per cent of the people in Ukambani would vote Yes, 30 per cent were opposed and 21 per cent undecided. Mwingi and Makueni were identified as the strongest areas for the No team.

Around 42 per cent of the No votes nationally will come from the Rift Valley but the Eastern is predicted by Synovate to be the next biggest block delivering 21 per cent of the No vote.

Kalonzo yesterday also toured Kathiani where last week he had trouble persuading the locals to vote for the proposed constitution.

The other leading presidential candidates for 2012 have been working hard to deliver their respective regions for the Yes and No teams.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga has locked up Nyanza and most of Nairobi while Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi seems to have galvanised the Yes vote in Western Kenya.

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta has spent most of the last three weeks in Central Kenya where he got Cabinet Minister John Michuki and MPs Jamleck Kamau (Kigumo), Peter Munya (Tigania East) and Peter Mwathi (Limuru) to defect from No to the Yes side.

Higher Education minister William Ruto, supported by former President Daniel arap Moi, may well deliver a majority for the No vote in Rift Valley.

Political analysts say a No victory in Ukambani would damage Musyoka politically. Water minister Charity Ngilu has not said if she will contest the presidency but a No victory would reduce Kalonzo's bargaining power for an alliance with other leading contenders.

Political analyst Amboka Andere said Kalonzo's political life was on the line.

"He may become totally irrelevant given that President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga appear to have convinced their regions. The delivery of the Ukambani votes is one that is critical and the VP has no excuse but to deliver," Andere said.

But University of Nairobi don Professor Wanjiku Kabira said the referendum vote will have no impact on the 2012 elections.

"It will be a different ball game then. Now Kenyans are going to vote for the referendum and not for personalities. It is not about Kalonzo or Raila or Kibaki. Remember a week in politics is a long time," Kabira said.

Yesterday Kalonzo's personal assistant Kaplich Barsito denied he was panicking.

"Kalonzo is confident that there will be a 70 per cent Yes endorsement of the proposed new constitution in Ukambani," Barsito said.

The VP has promised a trophy plus Sh1 million to the local constituency that delivers the highest number of Yes votes.

"The prize is the VP's way of expressing gratitude to his people and stressing the need for a Yes vote. It is not bribery as has been put by some critics," said Barsito.

In Kitui yesterday President Kibaki urged the crowd to support the draft as it is.

"Let us not waste time talking about negotiations. Let us pass it and even if we do not have time to amend it, then young people will do it for us because they are well educated," Kibaki said.

Water minister Charity Ngilu accused some Kamba MPs in the No camp of being stooges of former President Moi.

"They are coming here to mislead our people. We know they are just after Moi's money," Ngilu said.

Mutito MP Kilonzo Kiema yesterday rejected Ngilu's claims and insisted that the proposed constitution did not address his people's concerns.

"Ukambani will go red, and we have genuine reasons. We had asked for six counties, the Committee of Experts only gave us three. This is the basis of our rejection of this proposed new law," said Kiema.

Under the proposed constitution, Ukambani will have Machakos, Kitui and Makueni counties.