Kibaki effect working in favour of draft

After weeks of perception that voters in Mount Kenya, especially Central Province, were wavering between ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ a wind of change now appears to be sweeping through the populous region.

This is largely because of President Kibaki’s sustained campaign for ‘Yes’ on his home turf, and a personalised message about his legacy and appeal for his word to be trusted.
President Kibaki chats up jubilant Meru residents on arrival for a ‘Yes’ rally at Kinoru Stadium on Saturday. Photo: PPS/Standard


It appears in Grand Coalition arithmetic that entral and Rift Valley count for a lot more, and that is why after being bogged down in campaigns in the region, President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga — who is recuperating — will next week turn their attention to the Rift Valley.

This trip is being seen as a double-edged sword; first to neutralise the ‘No’ wave by showing they have not given it up all to Higher Education Minister William Ruto, and two, to consolidate for ‘Yes’ the non-Kalenjin vote in the cosmopolitan province.

It is believed in Kibaki-Raila calculation that the Central Kenya vote, if well harnessed, would cancel out Ruto’s impact and allow the ‘Yes’ votes in the other provincial baskets to take a commanding lead. It is probably in trying to stem this tide that the ‘No’ bloc of Church leaders, led by ten prominent televangelists, made a strong show in Nyeri, on Sunday.

After Kibaki’s sustained visits and messages to Central Kenya — which includes the larger Meru, Embu and Kirinyaga sub-regions — there is a change of tune. Kibaki’s effort in the region has been supplemented by Kanu Chairman Uhuru Kenyatta’s forceful approach, following pressure from Kibaki’s inner-circle and Central Kenya elders.

This coming weekend, as part of the agreement in ‘Yes’ that its leaders must split and pan out across the country, Kibaki and Raila will go to Eldoret — Ruto’s home turf. They will address a rally at the famous 64 Stadium on Friday afternoon.

Rift Valley province and Central Kenya are expected to provide about half of the total registered voters, or approximately 7.5 million voters in the referendum.

The "Yes" mood sweeping across the valleys and ridges of Central Kenya also follows the intervention of elders from the Gikuyu, Embu, Meru Association (GEMA). Over the last one month, President Kibaki has visited Central Kenya three times to campaign for the Proposed Constitution.

At the meetings, the President has decided to take on the opponents of the Proposed Constitution squarely, accusing them of serving the interests of foreigners and taking bribes, something out of his character and political posturing. "We know some of these people have been given money by foreigners to rock their own country. Why should you use money given by people from outside the country to peddle lies?" asked Kibaki at the Meru rally on Saturday.

Although Kibaki will be exiting the Presidency after 2012, he has said he is keen on giving the country a new Constitution as part of his legacy. Speaking about his legacy at the Dedan Kimathi Grounds in Nyeri, Kibaki said: "One thing that would make me a happy person is when you decide and actually pass this draft. I would be very happy and even pray for you."

The President told the people of Central Kenya that if the Proposed Constitution passes, he would relax with contentment.

Having done a splendid job in Central Kenya, Kibaki will now focus on the more difficult job of convincing voters in the Rift to vote "Yes". His interest in the Rift Valley votes is buoyed by the fact that people who trace their ancestral roots to Central dominate parts of the province.

One million voters

The Central Rift region has about one million registered voters, which has generated more than a passing interest from the "Yes" camp.

The "Yes" team has a sizeable group of Rift Valley MPs supporting the draft, who include Industrialisation Minister Henry Kosgey, Dr Sally Kosgei (Agriculture) and Franklin Bett (Roads).

President Kibaki has toured Meru twice in the last two months, an area that has supported him from the days when he was the Democratic Party chairman and Leader of the Opposition in Parliament. His interest in Meru appears to be informed by recent high profile meetings held in the area by leaders from the "No" camp.

Donning green colours, the President has taken charge with hard-hitting messages against those opposing the proposed new laws.

Kibaki has injected some life into the "Yes" campaign when the "No" team appeared to be having a field day in Central, Eastern, Coast and Western provinces — in the absence of Raila who is recuperating after head surgery. It had been feared that despite being home to Kibaki and Uhuru, the region was hurtling towards ‘No’ verdict in August 4 referendum.

Having smelt a rat, President Kibaki marshalled political forces in the region, taking along Uhuru Kenyatta and Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi on his charged campaign trails.

"Even those in hospitals should vote to ensure that the Constitution is adopted by a majority of Kenyans and you also talk to the few who are yet to be convinced that this is the best document," urged Kibaki.

The first major campaign rally for the ‘Yes’ team in Meru took place two months ago, before both Kibaki and Uhuru attended another rally in Nyeri two weeks ago. Uhuru later led a team of over 10 MPs to Runyenjes in Embu for another rally.

Lukewarm position

Pressure for the region to abandon its lukewarm position on the constitution, mounted after a meeting called by Gema two weeks ago.

The situation in Central Kenya is complicated by lack of a single dominant political party the region can identify with, given that loyalty is randomly spread across Party of National Unity (PNU), Narc-Kenya, Progressive Democratic Movement (PDM), Democratic Party (DP), Kanu and Grand National Union among others.

According to Prof Munene Macharia of USIU Kenya, the majority of voters in the region will vote for the draft.

"The region suffered from leadership problems, but that appears to be changing because there was no clear leadership and that meant there was no solid unity within Central Kenya," argues Prof Munene

He, however, believes voters in Central Kenya know what they want, and will pass the document. He says the problem of "watermelons" may be there, but they are a minority, and may not influence the process in a big way. "Even in Nyanza there may be watermelons who fear Raila, just like those in Central may not openly oppose the draft because of the fear for Kibaki," said Munene.

Central Kenya Parliamentary Group Chairman Ephraim Maina is happy the ‘Yes’ campaign has started taking shape in the region.

Maina who is the Mathira MP, said intensified campaign and the big rally in Nyeri had re-energised the ‘Yes’ support in the region.

He remarked: "There are no ‘watermelons’ in our midst. Leaders have decided to support the Proposed Constitution. The situation dramatically changed after Kibaki’s rally, because some undecided people have joined us, giving the ‘Yes’ team an upper hand." Central Kenya MPs will in the next two weeks launch grassroots campaigns expected to further boost the numbers.