Clever plans or luck? How Mwakwere won Matuga

It was a foregone conclusion in Mombasa that former Transport minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere would be trounced in the Matuga by-election.

How, then, did he turn the tables on his opponents, particularly Orange Democratic Movement’s Hassan Mwanyoha to win convincingly?

Mr Mwakwere garnered 16,350 votes to recapture the seat he lost after the High Court nullified his December 2007 election.

Running on a Party of National Unity ticket, he beat his nearest and fiercest rival, Mr Mwanyoha, by a 5,463 vote margin.

Mr Mwanyoha got 10,887 votes, Mr Kassim Tandaza of United Democratic Movement, 5,165 votes and Mr Isaac Mutula of Labour Party of Kenya 134.

While the by-election was expected to be a neck-and-neck race, featuring the two top perennial rivals, who have run against each other three times, the margin by which Mr Mwakwere carried the day was a shock to both friends and foes.

For Mr Mwakwere, it was all down to his clever tactics. Mr Mwanyoha and the other candidates did not take Mr Mwakwere seriously when he stated during the campaigns that he had “a secret weapon” that he would use to take the seat.

In an interview with the Daily Nation, which sought his opinion on why he wasn’t holding campaign rallies like his other rivals, Mr Mwakwere bragged: “I have a secret weapon which I am using against my opponents. I will teach them modern and scientific politics.”

The warning appeared lost in the fog of the numerous fiery utterances that characterised the campaign season, but the verdict of the by-election vindicated the former diplomat.

He later revealed that his entire strategy hinged on the use of 286 village committees that he formed to reach out to the entire constituency.

The committees did the donkey work, selling his agenda at the grassroots. It is to teams and his entire campaign machinery that he credited with his victory.

“I am grateful to my re-election committee members led by Mwalimu Digore (a former Matuga aspirant). They have played a critical role in ensuring that I recapture the seat,” he said shortly after he was declared a winner by returning officer Hellen Sidi at Matuga Government Training Institute.

The campaign strategy aside, there were murmurs that the former minister managed to isolate his rivals by linking them to “outsiders” who were allegedly sponsoring them.

And it was not lost on observers that ODM-K threw its weight behind Mr Mwakwere, taking advantage of a significant Kamba vote in the constituency.

Mr Tandaza contested on an ODM-K ticket in 2007 and got 5,000 votes. This time the party supported Mr Mwakwere and many of those votes must have gone to him.

During his victory celebrations, Mr Mwakwere was sandwiched by two ODM-K MPS, Philip Kaloki and Johnstone Muthama.

Mr Mwakwere repeatedly told the voters at campaign rallies that he had no grudges with nor was he scared of, Mr Mwanyoha, a fellow Digo from Tiwi, but with the group campaigning for him.

“Shun outsiders”

“I am not scared about my opponent holding rallies. The more they bring the Swahilis, Arabs and Luos in Matuga, the better for me because I believe the real voters have already made their choice,” he told the Nation in an interview during the campaign season.

In the few rallies he addressed, when accompanied by PNU political bigwigs that at different times included Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Internal Security Minister George Saitoti and Public Health Minister Beth Mugo, Mr Mwakwere never lost an opportunity to rally his Digo community to his side while asking them to shun “outsiders”.

Mr Musyoka, Prof Saitoti and Mrs Mugo lured the voters with promise of the “flag”, telling them that the Transport ministry docket was Mr Mwakwere’s for the taking once they re-elect him.

This is the reason President Kibaki had not filled it, and instead handed it to Trade Minister Amos Kimunya to oversee in an acting capacity.

The PNU scheme paid off and on Monday night running into Tuesday morning, Mr Mwanyoha and the other two candidates saw their hope of dislodging Mr Mwakwere gradually go up in smoke as the results from the 101 polling stations started trickling in.

ODM was magnanimous in defeat, saying, it was still popular even after losing a seat in Nyanza and failing to capture a new one in Matuga.

Lands minister James Orengo, who has been in Matuga for the past two weeks spearheading Mr Mwanyoha’s campaigns, said he was confident of a win in 2012, and urged the electorate to work with the new MP.