Why Western, Coast regions will be the battlefront

By Stephen Makabila           

Western and Coast provinces remain the main battlegrounds in the final month of the presidential campaigns going by their high number of undecided voters.

Despite firm statements from Amani coalition leaders that Western is not a swing but a bloc vote, the situation going by last week’s Ipsos polls paints a different picture.

The Amani leadership has, however, dismissed the poll as not reflecting the real situation, saying its competitors should be ready for surprise on March 4.

Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa, who backs Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi for the presidency, has vowed all votes in the region would go to Amani.

But in the polls, Western Province has 17 per cent of undecided voters while Coast has 23 per cent. CORD team led by PM Raila Odinga and his running mate Kalonzo Musyoka, tops Western in popularity with 49 per cent, followed by Amani at 29 per cent, and Jubilee at six per cent.

Trade Minister Moses Wetangula, a principal in CORD, is the coalition’s point man in the region. He is running for the Bungoma Senate. Before the latest polls, Wamalwa declared CORD was playing reactive politics.

“They are in a state of fear because of the Amani coalition’s strength. They are running scared,” said Wamalwa.

Interestingly, CORD also tops Coast Province with 64 per cent, followed by Jubilee at 10 per cent, and Amani at one per cent.

Moi University lecturer Masibo Lumala says undecided votes are mainly due to lack of adequate voter education, and that the Independent Electoral and Boundary Commission (IEBC) is to blame. “However, Western and Coast will be the battle grounds in the coming elections because going by the polls, Nyanza, Central, and Rift Valley are firmly under CORD and Jubilee coalitions and elections there somehow ended at the primaries,” added Lumala.

However, lawyer Titus Bittok, the ODM candidate for Nandi Hills constituency, differs with Lumala, saying Rift Valley was up for grabs between all the three coalitions, and that CORD, Amani and Jubilee have chances of springing a surprise.

Raila ratings

In the polls, CORD leads in Nyanza with an emphatic 82 per cent, while Jubilee tops in Central and Rift Valley at 86 per cent and 62 per cent. Head of Raila’s presidential campaign secretariat Eliud Owalo says CORD has strategies for the two regions (Western and Coast), which cannot be exposed to competitors. The PM’s approval rating has increased by 12 per cent in the latest Ipsos Synovate opinion poll. According to the research, the premier’s rating increased to 46 per cent from 34 per cent last month. DPM Uhuru Kenyatta follows him at 40 per cent from a 27 per cent popularity rating in December.

Ipsos Research Analyst Tom Wolf said Raila and Uhuru’s rise is due to previously undecided supporters who seem to have made up their minds. “Clearly, the dropping out of several earlier announced candidates (who have now assumed running mate positions) accounts for much of these gains,” Wolf said.

Wolf went on: “My guess is, there is going to be a lot of campaigns at the Coast and Western regions in the remaining month.” The polls placed Mudavadi’s popularity at five per cent, with Martha Karua, and Peter Kenneth at one per cent each.

“Amani will fight to take control of Western, as CORD fights to keep its lead. Jubilee will also venture into the region to boost its rating,” noted Lumala. Lumala says that apart from low civic education, some voters in Western were undecided because of being unsure on whether to vote Mudavadi who is one of their own, or vote for the most popular coalition, which is likely to win the March elections.

“This indecisiveness is partly the reason they have adopted a wait-and- see-attitude,” added Lumala.

Wetangula says voters from the Luhya community who vote for Mudavadi would be boosting the Jubilee coalition’s chances.

“I would like to urge those who are campaigning for Amani to join CORD as it will form the next government,” said Wetangula.