By MAKAU MUTUA ( email the author)
Posted Saturday, February 23 2013 at 18:32
Posted Saturday, February 23 2013 at 18:32
In Summary
- Crystal ball: The question is: Is there a ‘tyranny of numbers’ or is such talk just hot air?
- Despite talk of the ‘tyranny of numbers’, no candidate can garner 50+1pc of the first round vote
It’s now or never for Jaramogi’s son. The man they call Agwambo has a clear view of the mountaintop. But can he get there?
Will the few remaining excruciating steps prove too much for the lion of Kenyan politics? Has PM Raila Odinga run out of gas? Or will he show “Kamwana” who the real man is? We may find out on March 4, or we may not.
That’s because the two horses may run a dead heat and square off again in round two. Or will Mr Odinga score a first round knockout? Which begs the question – is there a “tyranny of numbers” or is such talk just hot air? Methinks I know – grab your popcorn and read discerningly. Take off your “tribesman’s hat” before you read this piece. It could be dangerous to your health.
I predict this will be the last election for either Mr Odinga or Jubilee presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta.
That’s because Kenyans will ask the loser to exit the stage after March 4. The country is giving each one of them one last chance. Nunca mas – no more – after this.
The country doesn’t need another mano-a-mano duel between the Kenyattas and the Odingas when one of these scions of political titans loses. I can hear millions of “amens” all over the country. This is the tyranny not of numbers, but of love of country. Save it – I am not denying them democratic rights.
Every Kenyan knows that Mr Odinga has toiled hard – and long – in the vineyards of politics and spent innumerable years in the wilderness. His stints in political detention amount to a decade of lost years. But he’s never been a true “insider” – not even after 2008 when he accepted “half a loaf” from President Kibaki.
Third of a loaf
Methinks it was more like “one third of a loaf”. Mr Kibaki seems to have forgotten that in 2002 Mr Odinga said “Kibaki Tosha”. The man from Othaya has refused to return the favour.
But to be fair to the inscrutable Kibaki, he has also refused to openly wink at Mr Kenyatta. But are his mandarins working for Kenyatta?
Of the major presidential candidates, only Mr Odinga can lay any credible claim to being the most senior reformer. This is why. He opposed the Moi-Kanu regime so ferociously that he drew the harshest sanctions. He briefly joined Kanu when he couldn’t beat it.
Many observers credit that move with the eventual death of Kanu. Mr Odinga himself says he killed Kanu from within.
He’s probably right. This much we know – many of the rights Kenyans enjoy today wouldn’t have been possible without Mr Odinga’s personal sacrifices. I am just looking at the historical record. The man even led the struggle to approve the 2010 Constitution. But in this, Mr Kibaki was his able partner. Facts are stubborn things.
Threadbare record
In contrast, Mr Kenyatta – Mr Odinga’s main rival for State House – has a threadbare public record. Again, I am just looking at history. We know this – Mr Kenyatta can’t lay any claim to being a reformer. He’s never risked life and limb for change. He is “Mr Status Quo”.
Does this mean he’s not suitable for the State House? Of course not – any Kenyan of the age of majority is eligible for the highest office in the land. But voters are entitled to ask this question – what have you done to earn the right to lead 40 million Kenyans?
I don’t have to answer that question, but Mr Kenyatta must. He’s the one fighting to be head of state.
Politicians will make promises – most of them empty and insulting to the intelligence of the average voter. They do it because voters are gullible. They are susceptible to the corruption of money and the soul through the tribe. This is the so-called “tyranny of numbers”.
The argument – which is odious, but probably true – is that Kenyans vote in tribal blocs. That may be true, except a tribal bloc can be put asunder by internal competition. Take the Rift Valley as exhibit A. It’s clear to me that Jubilee presidential running mate William Ruto will barely capture 40 per cent of the Kalenjin vote.
That’s because the Mois – competing tribal barons – and UDF presidential candidate Musalia Mudavadi will cannibalise his base.
I don’t think Mr Odinga will emerge empty-handed in the Rift Valley. He will get his share of votes there. But it’s clear that Mr Kenyatta will carry every vote among the Kikuyu. This means that Mr Kenyatta can only count on “one and half” tribes – the Kikuyu and about half the Kalenjin.
That’s not likely to win him the election. He must look for votes elsewhere. This makes the Meru and Embu critical to him.
Zero votes
But Mr Odinga is making a big play for the Meru vote. I predict that Mr Kenyatta will get zero votes in Ukambani where Narc’s Charity Ngilu’s campaign is on the ropes.
Mr Odinga and Mr Mudavadi will share the Luhya.
This leaves the Coast and North Eastern as possible trophies for Mr Kenyatta. But the truth is that even here the going is tough.
At best, Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta fight to a draw. But one has to give the nod to Mr Odinga because of the support he draws among Muslims and marginalised communities.
But even with these advantages, it’s unclear Mr Odinga can pull off a first round win. He thinks the State is trying to “rig him out”. That’s why my prediction is that we will go to round two.
Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at SUNY Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC. Twitter @makaumutua.V
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