By: Kenya Today News Team
Ipsos Synovate Managing Director Maggie Ireri has admitted that the sample used in the controversial poll on presidential debate was skewed towards Central and Rift Valley provinces. The two provinces are the bedrock of Mutahi Ngunyi’s tyranny of numbers. The damning revelation has left many in shock and now questioning the purpose of such biased poll.
Tom Wolf the firm’s lead research analyst confirmed that the findings of the survey were not nationally representative.
“This is not a national poll because it is limited to those who watched or listened to the debate and those whose phone contacts are in our data base,” said Wolf.
In the sample, Rift valley had 24 per cent of the respondents, Central 17 and Nairobi 13. Central is perceived as Uhuru’s strong hold while Rift Valley is perceived as under the grip of his running mate.
Raila’s Nyanza backyard had only 14 per cent of the sample being interviewed same as Eastern, which is perceived to be partially under the control of his running mate, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka.
“In fact more than half (54%=24+17+13) of the respondents were from Central, Rift Valley and Nairobi respectively” Frankline Onchiri Magaki a research fellow at Washington University said
“Very highly skewed sampling like this, besides other inherent selection biases make this polling worthy of a gutter press. Anyone who has attended basic research methods class can at glance thrush all its findings. What do you make of a study where authors spend half the time explaining the limitations/biases?” Wondered Magaki
The question Maggie Ireri could not answer however is why she released a biased poll results knowingly?
Many Kenyans were shocked at the findings that even Uhuru Kenyatta’s supporters could not believe it.
“I watched the debate, Uhuru did a good job but I did not expect him to win, I ranked him 2nd or 3rd, now the Synovate guys have just given as a bonus, hii ni mungu bwana!” Mosese Mwaura a Limuru based accountant said
The first presidential debate was held on Monday 11th Feb 2013; Raila Odinga was touted by many as the winner of the debate closely followed by Martha Karua. However released polls placed him second prompting many to question the motive of polling firms that knowingly released biased or “cooked” poll results.
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