Presidential debate poll rates Uhuru best

By PETER OPIYO

Nairobi, Kenya: A new opinion poll declared Jubilee Alliance presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta as the biggest beneficiary of Monday historic presidential debate.

According to Ipsos Synovate poll, Uhuru led in two key categories. The first being the score of how many Kenyans would, after the debate, vote for him if elections were held after the poll. On this front he scooped 40 per cent while Coalition for Reforms and Democracy candidate, Raila Odinga, came second with 33 per cent.

On the second category, which is limited to performance on the televised debate, Uhuru also topped with 37 per cent.

Majority of those polled told the pollster they were impressed with the Deputy Prime Minister’s proposals on security and responses on International Criminal Court trials against him and his running mate, William Ruto.

Raila was also polled the best candidate in regard to his policies on political parties.  Raila was second to Uhuru on overall performance on debate night with 23 per cent of those polled after the event broadcast live on television and radio stations as well as streamed in real-time by Online platforms.

However, the pollster warned that the findings might not reflect the reality on the ground as those who are not fluent in English were excluded since the presidential debate was conducted in this language. Furthermore, the survey was only limited to those with access to TV and transistor radios and was only conducted among individuals whose phone contacts the pollster has in its database.

“There is no basis to say that Uhuru Kenyatta is leading Raila based on this poll because it (the survey) was limited to those who had access to TV and radio,” said Ipsos Synovate’s Research analyst Tom Wolf.

Using Computer Aided Telephonic Interviewing method to collect data, the survey placed — in terms of performance on stage — Eagle’s Peter Kenneth’s at 15 per cent, Narc-Kenya’s Martha Karua came fourth at 8 per cent, Mohamed Dida of Alliance for Real Change (ARK) and Amani’s Musalia Mudavadi posted 4 per cent each while Safina’s Paul Muite got 2 per cent. Restore and Build Kenya’s James Ole Kiyiapi scored one per cent.

After the Monday’s debate, the pollster interviewed 1,074 respondents and found out that 7 per cent would vote for Kenneth, 4 per cent for Mudavadi while 2 per cent would vote for Karua. Seven per cent were undecided while six per cent refused to respond.

The debate, however, would have little impact on changing the minds of voters with only 24 per cent of the respondents saying they are likely to change their mind based on the debate. But even then the sample was drawn from those who have good understanding of English and the findings may not be nationally representative.

The pollster also interviewed 135 out of the 1,074 respondents, who comprise the undecided voters, and found out that 40 per cent of them changed mind after the debate and are likely to vote for Uhuru, 17 per cent for Kenneth, 16 per cent for Raila while six per cent would vote for Mudavadi. Karua would get four per cent of this group while six per cent is still undecided.

Margin  of error

The study, which has a margin of error of +/-2.99 with a confidence level of 95 per cent, had the sample drawn from 43 of the 47 Counties. Isiolo, Marsabit, Tana River and Samburu were excluded from the survey. The poll was conducted on February 12, a day after the historic debate.

The sample used in the survey was skewed towards Central, Nairobi and Rift Valley provinces and Ipsos Managing Director Maggie Ireri said this might be a pointer that the survey is not nationally representative. Wolf said the findings of the survey might not be nationally representative.

“This is not a national poll because it is limited to those who watched or listened to the debate and those whose phone contacts are in our data base,” said Wolf.

Rift valley had 24 per cent of the respondents, Central 17 and Nairobi 13. Central is perceived as Uhuru’s strong hold while Rift Valley is perceived as under the grip of his running mate.

Raila’s Nyanza backyard had 14 per cent of the sample being interviewed same as Eastern, which is perceived to be partially under the control of his running mate, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka.

The survey had 51 per cent females and 49 per cent males and had majority between the ages of 25-29 being interviewed. They comprised 22 per cent of the respondents. Those aged between 18-24 comprised 19 per cent as well as those aged between 30 and 34. Respondents aged between 35-40 comprised 18 per cent while those over 45 years comprised 18 per cent of the respondents.

The survey had those with secondary school education and above forming the biggest percentage of the respondents at 32 per cent. Of the respondents, 66 per cent watched the debate on TV while 34 per cent listened over radio and 97 per cent felt that the questions posed to the eight candidates were good enough.

In terms of handling actual issues, 23 per cent felt that Kenneth handled the question on tribalism well followed by Raila and Uhuru at 22 per cent each, Karua had 12, Dida four, Mudavadi and Muite three each and Kiyiapi scored two per cent.

Kiyiapi trounced them all on education issues scoring 18 per cent. He was a Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Education before going into politics. Uhuru scored 16 per cent, Kenneth 14, Raila 13 and Karua 11. Dida scored seven per cent; Mudavadi four while Muite scored three per cent.

Uhuru was viewed as the best performer in security and crime section, posting 22 per cent followed by Raila at 21 per cent and Kenneth at 14. Karua had 11, Muite nine, Mudavadi six and Dida and Kiyiapi three each.

On health issues, Karua led the pack at 27 per cent followed by Uhuru at 17 and Raila at 15. Kenneth scored 13 per cent, Mudavadi five while Dida, Muite and Kiyiapi scored three each.

Majority of the respondents, at 25 per cent, felt Uhuru tackled the ICC issue well, followed by Raila at 17, Muite at 14, Karua 13 and Kenneth had seven per cent. Dida scored four while Kiyiapi and Mudavadi had two each. Wolf attributed the high rating of Uhuru to the charges at The Hague-based court and he had an opportunity to argue his case.