Pre-Emptive Strike by Dark Forces: Downing The CJ

By otishotish
Uhuru and Ruto aren't entirely blockheads. On top of that, they have the money to pay people to think of Plans B, C, D, ... And they have the support of certain powers in the current regime.

As things stand they have four options: (a) they lose in the elections and show up for their trials, (b) they lose in the elections and don't show up for their trials, (c) they win in the elections and show up for their trials, and (d) they win in the elections and don't show up for their trials.

In court filings this week and last week, their lawyers have mounted vigorous fights to get the start of trials postponed. That was expected, given that they do not want to be at the Hague during the run-off. But there are other interesting aspects of the various filings: they complain that have been hit hard with a lot of new evidence since the Confirmation Hearings, and, because of delayed disclosures related to the most critical witnesses, it is clear (and they believe that) the hardest-hitting evidence is yet to come. What that means is that they have no idea of the whole dish Bensouda has prepared for them, and it is reasonable to expect that they would not cheerfully submit to a process that would see them put away for a very long time. On that basis alone, we can rule out options (a) and (c). Further, as regards option (c), they have been running for the sole purpose of avoiding justice, and, given the court's possible schedule, that option might not be practical. So we are left with just options (b) and (d).

Chief Justice Mutunga comes in at options (b) and (d). Whether or not they could successfully defy the ICC ultimately comes down to the Kenyan judiciary---arrest warrants issued---and how its orders are enforced by the police etc. We can get an idea of how option (d) might work by looking at Sudan: Bashir has simply managed to make it a crime for anyone there to have anything to do with the ICC.In essence, he has totally emasculated Sudan's legislature, judiciary, and other law-enforcement organs.Given the fragile state of judicial reform in Kenya and the renewed confidence that Kenyans are beginning to have in what used to be one of the most rotten judicial systems anywhere, the implications of a Bashir-like approach could be very far-reaching and very damaging to the country. As for the police, they have never heard of the word "reform". So for options (b) and (d) to work, it is the judiciary that would have to be "tamed", and that means "taming" or "neutralizing" the current Chief Justice.

So, where is our judiciary today, despite reforms? So far, there are hardly any judges willing to make the tough call: all sorts of excuses have been given to put off a ruling that should have been made ages ago, until it is now too late for anyone to do the right thing.

The new Deputy CJ:She has been congratulated left, right, centre, up, down, ... One thing that seems to have been forgotten is that it was only last year that this lady withdrew from a significant case because she had received "anonymous threats". I don't know if she was questioned about how she would handle such in the future, but I have my doubts about her backbone. Of course, it goes without saying, but I will say it anyway, that she is a fine lady and outstanding jurist. It's just the backbone.

The real threat (for The Two) in options (b) and (d) ultimately boil down to an independent-minded Chief Justice. It is therefore necessary for the "interested parties" to start to work to neutralize him, whence the "activity" in the past week. The actions involved might not go as far as planning to kill him, but when there's so much at stake for people who are scheduled for trial on the basis that they have done much worse? And when the "ready" replacement is known to be shy of "anonymous threats"? ....there have been some improvements, but Kenya is still Kenya.

I believe the Chief Justice is in very serious danger.I believe that there will be attempts to compromise him or "cut him down to size" to such an extent that his continued employment will be untenable. If that fails, then there are the types of "suicides" that happen only in Kenya.

I urge all compatriots to carefully reflect on options (b) and (d) and what they imply. In particular, "sanctions" and "reduced aid", which have recently attracted a lot of attention, might be the least of our problems under option (d).

Let there be no doubt that the Dark Forces Of (& Behind) The Two are going to pull some nasty stunts. The only questions are when, where, and how. No If.

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