On the one hand, there is a sense in which the panic-imperative is overwhelming: “Kenya could as well postpone the March elections. Last week’s party primaries made one thing crystal clear.
Kenya is ill-prepared to conduct free and fair elections in March…No one and no single institutions, is ready for the elections. Only a goddamned fool would go down a cliff with a car that’s got no brakes.
There is a real danger that peace would be seriously disturbed during, and after, the elections,” wrote eminent legal scholar Professor Makau Mutua in the January 27, 2013 edition of the Sunday Nation.
Hold on: “Prophets of doom, both local and foreign, are feverishly predicting chaos and post-election violence as we prepare for the final stretch to the March elections…These false prophets base their theses on flawed and self-serving data and a poor reading of the country’s history and probable voting patterns…Such rough hypotheses need debunking with simple facts, objective analysis and probable predictions,” wrote another eminent legal scholar Ahmednasir Abdullahi on the page opposite to Professor Mutua’s op-ed.
My two law teachers make formidable points: but I happily disagree with both their conclusions. First the facts: Professor Makau Mutua is right…to the extent that we are utterly unprepared for these elections.
There can be no other conclusion from the recent monumental shambles that supposedly went by the name of political party primaries. But Ahmednasir is also right to the extent that the analysis must be nuanced to incorporate recent political and constitutional developments in Kenya; despite the data and evidence appearing to be conclusively damning.
Very worryingly, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) seemed to tolerate the putrid stench emanating from all this electoral rubbish with not so much as a twitch of the nose in irritation has caused great disappointment and distress among many who expected a very firm corrective response from the IEBC.
It seemed that any vice committed by political parties in the conduct of their primaries was swept under the carpet without so much as even an annoyed frown across the brow of the IEBC.
To compound matters, we all already knew that the security sector is in paralysis; now it is certainly rapidly spiralling towards being comatose after the rejection by Prime Minister Raila Odinga of President Mwai Kibaki’s purported appointment to the positions of Deputy Inspector General of Police Grace Kaindi, Deputy Inspector General of the Administrative Police Samuel Arachi, and Director of the Criminal Investigations Department Ndegwa Muhoro.
On this one, the law and practice is clear: the Prime Minister has to be consulted by the President before such appointments are made: and consultations do mean that there is agreement between the two.
In addition, there have been serious pending integrity issues raised about Mr Muhoro, not least by the Independent Police Oversight Authority (IPOA). So why did the President proceed to “make” these appointments, if not in pursuit of constitutional sabotage?
The third concern is that the Jubilee coalition ticket of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto is interested in nothing else other than to ascend to the presidency at all costs so as to trigger a "Bashir scenario" of non-cooperation with the International Criminal Court (ICC). Both have loudly protested they will, indeed, cooperate.
But the doubts still linger: not helped by the worrying conclusion that their word (signed and witnessed, no less) means zero given their recent pitiful dealings with one Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi.
Moreover, Uhuru should have known better than to wave his finger in his recent interview on Al Jazeera television when he was pressed on the question of whether he would cooperate with the ICC were he to win the forthcoming elections and assume the presidency.
For keen observers pointed out that when former US President Bill Clinton was pressed on whether he had been in a sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky, he protested his innocence while finger-wagging.
Guess what? Behavioural experts immediately stated that, by dint of this act alone, Clinton was lying and proceeded to explain why. And they were right.
So time to panic and engage the parachute? No! If there is something that the constitutional reform process has taught us, it is that Kenyans can and will prevail despite their political and bureaucratic elite.
Just think about it: how did we manage to saddle such a progressive constitution on this bunch of pesky and pernicious parasites? This is the redoubtable resilience that Kenyans must call on. Here are five points how to.
First, the IEBC must not be allowed to abdicate its constitutional and legal responsibilities. They must be regularly and constantly reminded of their duty to oversee a free, fair, credible, genuine and peaceful election.
Kenyans must be their own guardians in this score: we must document all electoral violations or attempts at them and demand firm and stern action from the IEBC against reported perpetrators.
Second, the police force too must not be allowed to abdicate their policing mandate. They must secure us within the bounds of constitutional restraint and sanction. And if they fail, Kenyans must then ensure that those who are in police leadership are removed in accordance with the constitution.
Third, all Kenyans must reject violence at all costs. If they are incited or facilitated to engage in violence, they would do well to do as Martha Karua advised and ask the politician so inciting or facilitating to first incorporate his or her family as part of those executing this nefarious mission.
Fourth, Kenyans must demand that the judiciary executes its supervisory role over the elections, especially with regard to verifying claims of electoral fraud, with utmost integrity and diligence.
Fifth, Kenyans must vote to secure their future rather than return the country to its dark past. Out of the eight presidential tickets, there is only one that is definitely guaranteed to do all in its power to take us back to the authoritarianism and arbitrary rule of the big-man personality cult. I am taking no bets for correctly guessing which one this one is.
Mugambi Kiai is the Kenya Program Manager at the Open Society Initiative for Eastern Africa (OSIEA). The views contained in this article are entirely his own and do not in any way represent those of OSIEA.
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