Dash to the finish for presidential candidates

By OSCAR OBONYO

KENYA: It’s a race against time for the eight candidates who seek to be fourth President of the Republic, with the end of campaigns just seven days away.

The remaining hours are crammed with intense activity, beginning with Sunday’s countrywide mock election by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) followed by the final presidential debate on Monday.   

With pollsters predicting a neck-and-neck race between the two leading contenders, Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Deputy PM Uhuru Kenyatta, their campaign teams are on course to deliver that all-important final kick.

The Standard On Sunday has established, for instance, that leaders of the Jubilee Alliance Uhuru and running mate, William Ruto, have devised a way of packaging information for different groups in an effort to appeal to specific audiences more directly. This strategy worked effectively early in the week when two leaders campaigned separately in Taita Taveta and Kisii counties.

Uhuru campaigned in Kisii, where Ruto is relatively less popular, owing to the quiet tensions between members of his Kalenjin community and the neighbouring Kisii. Similarly, Uhuru skipped the Taita Taveta date where issues of land are volatile, leaving Ruto instead to campaign in the area.

“We are now on a very delicate lap and we shall accordingly interact cautiously. This is not to say we have anything to hide, but rather that we are a team. You do not have to fear, therefore, if you are uncomfortable with one of the principals because Jubilee will be an all-inclusive Government,” says an Uhuru party insider, who declined to be quoted.

On his part, Raila has dropped the so-called “six-piece suit” vote call, which appeals to voters to cast votes for the six positions of President, Governor, Senator, Member of Parliament, Women Representative and Country Representative from one political party.

Owing to chaotic party primaries and a stiff presidential contest, this is the message that the premier will be preaching for the remaining days. The new approach has two main advantages – first, it calms negative competition among candidates and secondly, it helps boost numbers for the presidential candidate.

Face-to-Face

Busia County, which several opinion polls have cast as an Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) zone for instance, seems to have changed overnight. The Standard On Sunday has established that the ODM wave is slowly on the decline.

Instead it is being replaced by a Raila wave.

Says former Attorney General, Amos Wako, a frontrunner for the Senate seat: “Suddenly we in ODM no longer enjoy automatic advantage. We are now all members of one, united Raila family, and even candidates from the non-CORD-allied parties are swimming along with us. The numbers for Raila are soaring by the day – courtesy of this move.”

In the meantime, the presidential campaign teams have mapped out target counties for consolidation and last-minute vote-hunting. 

Meru, Kisii, Mombasa and Nairobi counties top the priority list of the campaign teams. On Friday alone, five presidential candidates including Raila of the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), DPM Musalia Mudavadi of Amani Alliance, Martha Karua (Narc-Kenya), James ole Kiyaipi (Restore and Rebuild Kenya) and Safina’s Paul Muite all came face to face in Kisii. This was barely two days after a tour of the area by Jubilee’s Uhuru.

With 414,493 registered voters, Kisii has the eighth highest number of voters out of the 47 counties countrywide. What makes Kisii even more attractive is its location in Raila’s rural backyard of Nyanza region. A slice of the Kisii vote, therefore, has a double gain – it is an added vote and takes away from the PM what is considered his.

The same political logic applies for Meru, which boasts of a voter population of 483,517 – the fifth highest. Because it is in Central Kenya, where Uhuru is considered the favourite candidate, the temptation by rivals to chip at his numbers is irresistible.

The Standard On Sunday has also established that the eleventh hour vote-hunt will be concentrated in counties with high voter registration figures including Nakuru with 695,879 voters, Kakamega (568,813), Bungoma (411,981), Mombasa (412,602) and Kilifi, which has 340,948.

Although Kiambu, Murang’a, Machakos, Kisumu, Nyeri and Homa Bay counties also have high voter numbers, they will attract limited activity as they are regarded as politically sealed off in favour of the CORD and Jubilee candidates.

With a voter population of 1,778,908, Nairobi is the ultimate target of the contenders. Because of its centrality, a host of whistle-stop campaigns are slated for Nairobi by the Raila, Uhuru, Mudavadi and Karua teams for this week.

CORD and Jubilee will stage final campaign rallies in Nairobi’s Kamkunji grounds and Uhuru Park, respectively, on Saturday. On the same day – the official last day of campaigns – Mudavadi will retreat to his western Kenya backyard to consolidate support in the populous Kakamega and Bungoma counties.

Strategic plans

“We only have one strategy for the remaining period – consolidation. I mean, our message has been delivered and well received. What remains is to ensure people come out and vote,” Uhuru’s official spokesman, Munyori Buku told The Standard On Sunday.

Major coalitions have also mooted plans to coerce some candidates vying for seats in Nairobi County to step aside. Those targeted are members of the same coalitions, the persuasion behind the move being to avoid splitting the vote amongst themselves to the advantage of rival parties.

Similarly, supporters of Uhuru are involved in a crunch-time exercise trying to unite candidates for the Governor’s seat, Ferdinand Waititu and Jimnah Mbaru.