Sunday, February 24, 2013

Candidates face major headache as run-off looms


By Stephen Makabila
NAIROBI; KENYA: CORD and Jubilee leaders throb with confidence of a first round win but behind the scenes, they have their strategists cracking their heads on a winning formula in case of presidential a run off.
Investigation by The Standard on Sunday has established other groups and parties outside the two main coalitions are keenly weighing options on which side to mould a post-election coalition, depending on chances of victory and how their interests will be catered for.
“Of course, we are also fighting to win, but if we do not fall in the run-off bracket, we will have to weigh which side has the greatest chance to form government and how best the interests of the Amani coalition will be catered for,” said a parliamentary candidate in Western Province close to Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi.
Three opinion polls have predicted a dead-heat in the race for State House between CORD’s presidential candidate Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee Alliance.
Released on Monday, two weeks to the March 4 election of the country’s Fourth President, surveys by the pollsters Ipsos Synovate, Infotrak and Strategic Research either showed the race all tied up or gave a slight lead for Raila.
The findings of the surveys indicated the presidential contest would most certainly be settled in a run-off. In trying to prepare for any eventuality, Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has already set aside April 10 as the date for the battle between the top two candidates in case of a re-run.
Another round
Prof Peter Kagwanja, the President of the African Policy Institute, predicts a CORD win in round two.
“Political dynamics could see Western and Rift Valley provinces overwhelmingly support CORD in case of a run-off. What Raila needs to do is to play cool and preach national reconciliation,” added Kagwanja. Dr Masibo Lumala, a senior communication lecturer at Moi University says packaging of information will be key in deciding the winner in round two.
“It will not be about financial influence. It will be about major political realignments based on regional interests and how messages are developed on national and regional interests,” added Lumala. The Ipsos Synovate poll, which questioned 2,500 respondents on February 13 through to February 15, showed Uhuru and Raila tied at 43 per cent. Strategic Research, which interviewed 2,500 respondents between February 14 and 17, indicated 44 per cent of the respondents would vote for Raila while Uhuru of Jubilee would secure 43 per cent of the vote with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.14 percentage points.
Poll findings
And the Ipsos Synovate poll also predicted Raila and Uhuru would go neck-and-neck if the presidential vote is pushed to a second round. Asked who their preferred candidate was in case of a runoff, 22 per cent chose Raila against 21 per cent for Uhuru.
Eagle Alliance presidential candidate Peter Kenneth was preferred by 14 per cent of voters incase of a runoff.
Raila’s Chief Campaigner and head of Cord campaign secretariat, Mr Eliud Owallo, argues the PM’s popularity ratings was at 53 per cent countrywide and that his team was working to consolidate the lead while TNA Secretary General Onyango Oloo said Uhuru was way ahead with 55 per cent and would unleash new strategies later this week.
Chairman of the CORD national coordinating committee Franklin Bett said the alliance was doing everything possible to manage a clear round one win.
“But if we don’t succeed, we have put everything in place to ensure we still beat our opponents in the second round,” said Bett.
In trying to lure Amani coalition, which is viewed as the likely ‘king maker’ in round two of the race, Raila’s running mate Kalonzo Musyoka has indicated CORD will still accommodate Mudavadi even if he loses. Kalonzo said: “Our government will be an all-inclusive one, and we will not harbour any grudges against anyone who is not on our side. Musalia will definitely be considered,” he said.
Kalonzo said it was unfortunate that the trap set by Uhuru earlier had inadvertently caught Musalia while he had evaded it due to his wise political calculations.
Oloo, however, disclosed that the Jubilee team had been approached by a number of candidates ready to cross over just in case there was a run-off.
There have been talk Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa who supports Mudavadi’s presidential bid, could be accommodated in Jubilee and be sponsored for the position of Speaker of National Assembly.
Cutting deals
“They are speculations that do not hold because Amani is also competing to form government. Its key leaders like Wamalwa cannot therefore be cutting deals with rival coalitions at this time,” said Kizito Temba, as close political ally of Wamalwa.
But Kakamega CORD Senator candidate Cyrus Jirongo argues the current confusion in Western Kenya’s politics is due to what he termed “political merchants” who were willing to split the vote and assist Jubilee undercut CORD presidential candidate Raila Odinga.
“Why is Eugene Wamalwa not contesting any seat? Which kind of politician claims to be in politics but refuses to contest any position? I can confirm it is because he has been promised a seat in the Jubilee government,” said Jirongo.



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