Backlash fears over election dirty fights

By Mwaniki Munuhe

KENYA: The battle between the three leading contenders in the presidential race will increasingly be fought around a handful of ‘hot-button’ issues as Election Day nears.

Strategists in the main coalitions have developed arguments to be used in direct attacks against key rivals. Key players in the CORD, Jubilee and Amani coalitions, however, are concerned about the potential dangers of using these “dirty trick” arsenals too aggressively. This is due to fears they could scare away votes or close doors to second-round alliances.

“When you listen to CORD and Jubilee, there is intense heat which does not augur well for the country,” Amani presidential hopeful Musalia Mudavadi has warned. This, he and his allies say, make him a better option for disillusioned voters.

“This country is best (put) in the hands of the least antagonistic candidate,” says Jeremiah Kioni, Amani candidate for Deputy President. Rivals in CORD and Jubilee are, however, already taking the sting out of their talk to avoid a backlash.

“No one should worry about what we are saying during the campaigns about land injustices,” CORD running mate Kalonzo Musyoka says.

“We do not want direct attacks on (presidential) candidates because we may need them in case of a run-off,” says a TNA source that did not want to be identified discussing possible second-round plans.

The key political risk from ‘mud-slinging’ or negative campaigns is the alienation of critical groups of voters at a time when opinion polls show at least two presidential contenders with a good chance of winning in the first round.

This week, police, cohesion commission officials and religious leaders, among others, pointed out other social, legal and economic dangers posed by a no-holds-barred fight. Cabinet also put out a call for politicians to avoid “emotive and sensational utterances that are inflammatory or abusive and pit communities or people against each other”.

The Standard On Saturday has seen lists of ‘talking points’ drawn up by CORD and Jubilee in preparation for the climax of the campaign season. Both groups plan to question their rivals’ integrity by bringing up fresh claims of land fraud, tax evasion, abuse of office and grand corruption. Some of the claims are already part of a hot debate between allies of Prime Minister Raila Odinga (CORD/ODM) and Deputy PM Uhuru Kenyatta (Jubilee/TNA).

Benefit

While ‘mud-slinging’ excites core supporters, it may spark a backlash from undecided or uncommitted voters. This could be felt in either a failure to turn out on Election Day or a decision to vote differently than initially intended. Mudavadi, who has been urging “hygienic politics”, hopes to gain from such a backlash.

At rallies, he has been painting his stronger rivals as “angry” or potentially vengeful. Five others could also benefit: They are, in alphabetical order, Mohammed Dida (ARC), Martha Karua (Narc-Kenya), Peter Kenneth (Eagle/KNC), James ole Kiyiapi (RBK) and Paul Muite (Safina).

Jubilee plans to hit at CORD leaders mentioned by the Ndung’u Commission in a report on illegal allocations of public land. They may also target the PM with claims of corruption in the Kazi Kwa Vijana scheme and political favours for alleged tax evaders. His track record as a Government official, particularly as Energy minister in the Kanu regime, is also fodder for possible attacks.

CORD leaders continue to use the charges Uhuru and his running mate face at the International Criminal Court, as well as claims of illegally acquired wealth. Their land-grabbing claims sparked controversy. Interestingly, allies of Raila have previously used similar tactics against his current running mate, who was almost committed to jail in 1991 over land fraud. The arguments by Raila ally Sarah Elderkin may be revived to dirty Kalonzo’s ‘Mr Clean’ image. Allies of Uhuru have also brought up questions about Raila’s hand in the Kisumu Molasses plant purchase. 

A backlash from landowners has already forced CORD to back away from ODM plans to tax idle land and clarify it has no plans to effect redistributions. At a rally at Nairobi’s Uhuru Park on Wednesday, Raila chose to reframe his argument in the less controversial language of the growing gap between the rich and the poor. “Recently, I spoke about returning grabbed land,” he said. “Today, I am asking Uhuru to give up his land to the poor: Let him surrender the thousands of acres he owns.”

Illegally acquired

Uhuru’s allies hope to defuse the land question by making it a track record issue. They point out that the Ministry of Lands is run by a Raila ally, who would have provided proof of land-grabbing if any actually existed. The Deputy PM’s spokesman Munyori Buku has challenged Raila to provide evidence of illegally acquired land in Kenyatta’s hands.

“(Land-grabbing) has been discussed in the past,” he said. “A special commission was set up to investigate this very question. Details of those named in the Ndung’u Report are in the public domain and Mr Kenyatta is not one of them.”

According to a source within Jubilee, Raila will also come under fire over perceived failures at the Office of the Prime Minister. However, Nairobi Metropolitan assistant minister Elizabeth Ongoro says any attacks on Raila’s track record are bound to fail.

“Anybody who attempts to say the PM has no track record is disqualifying himself even as a minister,” she says. “One cannot outperform his boss or supervisor. If any one of them says he performed as a minister, they should remember that they only did so because their boss, the PM, created a conducive environment for performance.”