Jubilee retreats to plot battle for Nairobi county

By Abdikadir Sugow      

Tough contest: With parties shopping for favourable aspirants who cut across the political divide among potential voters, it has now become abundantly clear that the General Election will be won or lost in the city

The Jubilee Coalition will have to adopt a sharp political strategy and apply all the tricks in the book to counter a strong challenge mounted by the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) in the intriguing Nairobi County electoral battle.

Mere rhetoric or slogans will not be enough for the Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto-led Jubilee Coalition following their parties’ dramatic falling out with Musalia Mudavadi’s United Democratic Forum (UDF).

Politicians are already jostling covertly and overtly to secure tickets of Uhuru’s The National Alliance (TNA) after reportedly agreeing with its Jubilee Coalition partner, Ruto’s United Republican Party (URP) that each party will field their own candidates in their strongholds.

Sources familiar with Nairobi politics say TNA holds a sizeable stake on the ground and the main threat to its share of the chunky city pie is the reloaded CORD alliance of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM) and Ford- Kenya.

CORD’s launch and the announcement that ODM leader Prime Minister Raila Odinga will be the coalition’s flag bearer with Wiper leader Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka as running mate has rattled Jubilee, particularly its TNA wing, more so after Mudavadi quit.

TNA strategists know very well that politically URP and UDF do not have a major influence in Nairobi County, especially when it comes to numbers that can tilt the balance in an electoral battle, so they are focusing their sights on their formidable opponents in CORD.

It will indeed be an epic battle and will be the centerpiece of the high national stakes in the March 4 General Election. Stung into action by Raila and Kalonzo’s seismic political coup, the TNA inner circles have gone back to the drawing board to chart out their battle plan.

Number one on the agenda is a major house cleaning to re-design its campaign strategy and also make sure that only credible, vetted candidates are allowed the luxury of securing the Jubilee (TNA) ticket after a nomination by trusted delegates.

Main casualties

According to insiders, the first casualties of this housekeeping exercise are Embakasi MP Ferdinand Waititu, who has declared an aggressive and vocal intention to vie for the Nairobi Governor’s seat and the cantankerous Makadara MP Gideon ‘Sonko’ Mbuvi, who is gunning for the Senate.

Waititu and Mbuvi’s fate seems to have been sealed by their previous utterances and actions, which many feel has portrayed Uhuru and TNA in bad light and could prove politically costly in the quest for right-thinking voters.

The final straw that could break the camel’s back is the declaration by the Commission on the Administration of Justice (Ombudsman) that the two are unfit to hold office due to their questionable credentials on leadership and integrity.

Key TNA movers says it could prove suicidal for the two leaders to clinch the party ticket, only to be stopped right on their tracks by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission on account of the Ombudsman’s terse declaration, and in the process easily hand victory to CORD candidates.

Uhuru’s TNA outfit, with a solid grassroots following, is also working hard to jump-start its campaigns on the ground after dealing with the Jubilee crisis.

The man being touted to spearhead Jubilee’s city grassroots campaigns is the tried, tested, and trusted former Starehe MP Maina Kamanda, who, according to our sources, is said to have the blessings of TNA headquarters to lay the ground for spirited campaigns.

Kamanda is familiar with city politics and is a shrewd politician who is best at mobilising grassroots supporters having been city councillor, MP and Cabinet minister. He also has vital contacts across the ethnic barrier. Above all, Kamanda is much credited with having been among those who worked behind the scenes to bring on board TNA ship the Party of National Unity (PNU), giving Uhuru a much-needed political lifeline. PNU is party that ensured President Kibaki’s re-election in 2007 and has strong structures, particularly in Nairobi and Central provinces. 

Top seats

The other reason the inner circle is said to have settled on Kamanda is because he has not been involved in controversies. Also, since he is only seeking to regain his Starehe parliamentary seat, he has no vested interest in top political seats, including those of governor or senators during the party nominations.

His archrival Assistant Minister for Housing and Starehe MP Bishop Margaret Wanjiru has opted to vie for the governor’s position that she is seeking to secure on an ODM (CORD) ticket against former Mumias Sugar CEO Evans Kidero and former Town Clerk Phillip Kisia. Pre-election coalitions are influencing electoral dynamics in several counties, especially those with cosmopolitan populations like Nairobi.