Politics of ‘spare-wheel’

By OSCAR OBONYO

Even as they steer their separate campaigns, insiders in the Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi camps concede the two presidential aspirants are locked in a head-to-head battle for compromise candidate slot.

It is all about playing the spare wheel for Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, in the event the two, who are facing charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC), are stopped or opt out of the presidential race.

According to sources within the Uhuru-Ruto camps, the two politicians have been weighing several scenarios, including vying on a joint ticket, running separately or backing the presidential bids of the Vice-President or DPM, Mudavadi.

It is the latter option that has generated tension between campaign teams of Kalonzo and Mudavadi. Though intense, the jostling for the spare wheel role is hushed because none of the two politicians wants to be seen to be dancing on the apparent political graves of Uhuru and Ruto.

“It is an open secret that ongoing discussions target the two as compromise candidate. And the friction between Kalonzo and Mudavadi camps is further heightened by the fact that even Uhuru and Ruto are not in agreement over the appropriate candidate,” a politician aligned to Uhuru told The Standard On Standard.

According to the politician, who cannot be named owing to confidentiality of the matter, Uhuru has a soft spot for Mudavadi, while the Eldoret North MP reportedly vouches for Kalonzo as compromise candidate. Uhuru, who ran for presidency in 2002 with Mudavadi as running mate, understandably believes the Sabatia MP enjoys a better national appeal. But Ruto reportedly maintains Kalonzo starts off with a solid backing at home and has more numbers.     

From a muted boardroom battle, the Kalonzo-Mudavadi tension is slowly attracting the attention of supporters, with some now openly discrediting the rival candidate. Housing minister Soita Shitanda, for instance, describes the VP’s track record with regard to loyalty is “seriously shaky”.

“He was initially with (Prime Minister Raila) Odinga and the rest of the group that involved Ruto, Mudavadi, (Joe) Nyagah, and (Najib) Balala, but you all know the corners he beat out of selfish interests to abandon the rest in 2007. As the country burned following the post-election violence and as others moaned over electoral loss, he squeezed himself in between Raila and Kibaki to get into Government, just as he had promised,” observes the minister.

But there are those who argue that Kalonzo by choosing to work with President Kibaki during the trying moments of the post-election violence, helped quell the tension.

And the Malava MP, who is allied to Mudavadi, partly blames Kalonzo for the 2007 poll fiasco. Claiming he was an outright underdog in the presidential poll, Shitanda opines that had the VP thrown his weight behind Kibaki or Raila, a clear winner would probably have emerged.

“Unfortunately he saw an opportunity to advance personal interests and went for it. If I were either Uhuru or Ruto, this would not be the kind of politician to support,” he charges.

Political contribution

However, Kibwezi MP Phillip Kaloki is more guarded in his criticism of Mudavadi. While welcoming the DPM into the so-called G-7 arrangement, the MP maintains that Kalonzo has the edge over all challengers.

“I am not particularly keen on putting the VP on a weighing balance with Mudavadi. What is important though, is that the inclusion of Mudavadi will surely strengthen our team. Nonetheless, in choosing our flag bearer, we should consider one’s political contribution to this campaign and their seniority (in Government),” says Kaloki.

The MP, a key ally of Kalonzo, maintains the Wiper Democratic Movement is a stronger party and the VP has a larger following than Mudavadi.

But Francis Mwangangi, head of one of the VP’s lobby groups, WDM Ambassadors insists Kalonzo is the best bet: “We are not insisting on him being the flag bearer, but considering his political experience and the fact that as VP he is the most senior partner, somebody will have to convincingly explain to us why he has to play second fiddle.”

However, for the United Democratic Forum CEO, Petronila Were, the issue at hand is not about a Kalonzo-Mudavadi duel but rather the best leadership for the country. She claims Mudavadi is the only leader among the presidential aspirants, who can unite this country. 

Historical differences

“Unlike other region-based parties, you cannot place or confine UDF to any particular region. It is national and existed even before Mudavadi joined and became its leader,” says Were.

Besides the Kalonzo-Mudavadi spare wheel plot, Uhuru and Ruto have separately been trying to build alliances between their political parties and other politicians. The most publicised ones involved Ruto with Raila and later Ruto with Uhuru.

Describing the deals as “fairly favourable to us”, Konoin MP Julius Kones nonetheless says the Ruto-Raila and Ruto-Uhuru proposed voters from members of Ruto’s Kalenjin community resisted pacts. Kones attributes this partly to reservations with the PM with whom Ruto broke ranks with in the Orange party and historical differences with members of Uhuru’s Kikuyu community, who are neighbours in the Rift Valley region. 

Indeed, this dilemma among Kalenjin voters, lends credence to the Kalonzo-Mudavadi options by the Uhuru-Ruto duo. Kalonzo and Mudavadi curiously share a lot of history.

The two were staunch loyalists of the independence party, Kanu, and political students of former President Moi.