Consequences of a Ruto and Uhuru presidency

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PHOTO | FILE Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta at a past rally in Nyandarua. The two are in the presidential contest even though they have crimes against humanity cases to answer at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.  NATION MEDIA GROUP

By OLIVER MATHENGE omathenge@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted  Saturday, October 27  2012 at  23:30

IN SUMMARY

• The British government was the first to sound a warning last week that a government led by either of the two would sour the relationship between Nairobi and London
• The executive director of the International Commission of Jurists Kenya chapter George Kegoro said that should they win the election, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto would place the country in an awkward position
• Analysts say Kenya has always been on the international community’s radar due to the foreign interests in the region

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Kenya is staring at a possible diplomatic crisis if Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto take office after the General Election.

The British government was the first to sound a warning last week that a government led by either of the two would sour the relationship between Nairobi and London.

British High Commissioner Christian Turner said the Queen’s government does not engage with people indicted for international crimes.

Speaking on Citizen TV’s Power Breakfastshow last Tuesday, Mr Turner said it was British policy that its ministers and government officials should not meet anyone who is facing charges for international crimes.

“The electoral matter is a Kenyan affair. But neither myself nor other government ministers talk to or engage with indictees,” Mr Turner said.

His comments followed those of chief mediator Kofi Annan who said three weeks ago that “it’s an issue before the court and neither President Mkapa nor I would want to comment on it in detail. But of course there are implications which everyone needs to ponder, particularly when you are dealing with leadership of the country, leadership within the country and also leadership that also involves relations with other countries outside and beyond Africa.”

The executive director of the International Commission of Jurists Kenya chapter George Kegoro said that should they win the election, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto would place the country in an awkward position.

“There would be significant practical problems for Kenya as the president, expected to run the country, will firstly be physically absent on trial, and, secondly, sharing his time between somehow leading the country from abroad and mounting a defence in his trial. Ruto has offered that if he finds himself in this situation, he will run the country remotely using information technologies,” says Mr Kegoro in a commentary.

“Reasonable people would, however, not consider this a practical possibility. As an accused person the president would lose control of his time, and the long absence in a foreign land will remove his ability to exercise personal judgment in decisions that he must make for the government. In other words, an absentee president would effectively have abdicated power to others in his government who will remain behind in Kenya, as he travels to The Hague for trial.”

ICC chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda, who ended a five-day visit to Kenya on Friday, said she looked forward to co-operation from the suspects even if they were elected.

“Kenya is a signatory to the Rome Statute, and extraction warrants will be issued if any of them is elected president and fails to collaborate with the ICC. Kenya risks having a president who will leave his duties to attend the trial and will not be allowed to travel to ICC signatory states,” Ms Bensouda said.

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have both indicated they will seek the presidency, possibly through a joint ticket despite facing crimes against humanity charges at the ICC for the 2008 post-election violence.

Analysts say Kenya has always been on the international community’s radar due to the foreign interests in the region. A repeat of election-related violence is not only a threat to the country’s stability but would also affect the entire region, they say.

“They (foreigners) have a lot of interest in the region, and Kenya is the entry point to the region. Kenyan elections are international elections, and they therefore try to influence and shape how the elections go,” said Prof Macharia Munene of United States International University.

“Things are still fluid right now, but you will see them double their efforts as the election draws closer. This may be because things are either going extremely well, or they are not in pursuant to their interests,” he said.

International lawyer and lecturer Prof Kindiki Kithure shares in Prof Munene’s position, adding that Kenya’s engagement in Somalia is of key interest to western powers. He argues that many of them want to see Somalia stable in order to minimise shouldering the burden of refugees and illegal immigrants.

“They also see the political engagement with Kenya as an opportunity to recover what they have lost to the East through the economic policies of the Kibaki administration. The visibility they are seeking towards the elections is political in nature,” Prof Kithure said.

Political scientist Prof Karuti Kanyinga says the international community has always showed keen interest in Kenya, and this would continue as long as the country remains a regional hub. And recent activities in Nairobi of foreign dignitaries is proof of this.

The Parliamentary Committee on Legal Affairs of the German Federal Parliament headed by Mr Siegfried Kauder was in the country two weeks ago for “political dialogue on good governance and the rule of law”.

And two weeks ago, US Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson held a conference call with journalists on various issues affecting the country including the war against Al-Shabaab in Somalia.

In September, Mr Carson said that US President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were paying close attention to Kenya’s preparations for the polls.

In April the US sent a State Department team to the US Embassy in Nairobi “to develop plans focused on helping Kenyans carry out peaceful and credible elections, advance their reform agenda, and prevent or mitigate conflict leading up to and beyond the elections.”

Earlier this month, UK International Development Secretary Justine Greening and minister for Africa Mark Simmonds held meetings with Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Internal Security minister Katoo ole Metito and Chief Justice Willy Mutunga in Nairobi.

They discussed a wide range of issues from development and trade and investment to security and Kenya’s preparations for elections.

“We have discussed Kenya’s preparations for the elections...Like all Kenyans, the UK above all wants the elections to be credible, safe and fair. I want to emphasise that we are of course impartial. Our job is not to back any one candidate over the other. It is not who wins but how they win,” Mr Simmonds said.

Canada is also seeking greater engagement with Kenya and has played a key role in the acquisition of biometric voter registration kits.

But Mr Kenyatta has said that if elected he would engage with countries that want to work with him.

“My focus is on Kenya, the region and the continent. No Kenyan or African, other than those who come as tourists, has said Uhuru should not vie for the presidency, so the rest can stay away if they don’t want to associate with us,” he said recently.

During one of her press briefings, Ms Bensouda said The Hague-based court would not bend its operations to fit Kenya’s politics.

She added that Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto would not obtain immunity from prosecution even if they are elected to the presidency.