Top guns dilemma over coalition pacts

By Wahome Thuku and Vitalis Kimutai

As presidential aspirants traverse the country with campaigns getting heated, there is also a date three months away that the country and those campaigning are watching with bated breath.

This is December 4: The deadline by which aspirants seeking to sign pre-election unity pacts and power-sharing arrangements must have deposited their documents of collaboration with the Registrar of Political Parties. Aside from this date, there is also the October 18 deadline for the parties to submit their nomination rules to the Registrar of Political Parties.

Only the United Democratic Movement under the chairmanship of Lieutenant General (retired) John Koech and National Visions Party led by former Cabinet minister Nicholas Biwott have gone public with a pre-election pact.

Because of the detailed nature of the pacts required by law, including outline on how power will be shared and manifestoes merged, it means by now teams would have been assigned by those seeking partnership after elections to work on the rigorous aspects of pre-election pacts.

This is because within the parties this would require long-drawn negotiations, involvement of mediators and lawyers, as well as cultivation of trust and strategies to make the supporters of the parties buy into the idea.

Coalition agreements must state the policies and objectives of the alliances, its overall structure, the general organisation structure, and its management systems. It must also declare who will be presidential candidate and running mate.

The pacts must also spell out the criteria or formula for sharing of positions in the coalition structure, roles and responsibilities within the coalition, election rules, and the decision-making structure, among other rules.

Such agreements must also state the coalition nomination rules within set time limits when they must be prepared and officially handed over to the electoral body.

But as things stand, with only 69 days to the deadline, it appears the presidential aspirants have their attention elsewhere even if they declare they will work with ‘like-minded’ leaders – all of them are concentrating on building and popularising their parties and casting themselves as candidates whose names will definitely be on the ballot paper.

What is even more intriguing is that in a situation where all the top guns appear settled on the fact that they will run, questions are already being asked if it would be possible for them to sign a pre-election pact exclusively applicable for the phase after run-off, which many of the candidates privately are said to believe is inevitable. 

It is with this general feeling no single party is likely to win in the March 4, 2013, face-off on its own, that party leaders are said to be trying to attract top politicians, including those who have declared they will run to their side.

That is what Prime Minister Raila Odinga did when he invited Vice- President Kalonzo Musyoka to join his Orange Democratic Movement. It is also believed to be the glue holding and fanning suspicions in the G7 Alliance, which brings together Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Eldoret MP, William Ruto, and Kalonzo.

Whereas the three talk of being ‘like-minded’ leaders in one coalition that would produce one candidate, each is busy building his party; planning for grassroots elections, and have set up presidential campaign secretariats. 

United Democratic Forum candidate Musalia Mudavadi, on the other hand, is on his own at the moment, building his own candidature and positioning himself as the compromise candidate for groups seeking change. 

It remains to be seen if they would align manifestoes, develop joint policy and political agenda, and agree on nomination of candidates. This won’t be easy, as The Standard’s check revealed because many of the aspirants are captives of their ethnic groups and key support blocs. If they do not run, they might risk political irrelevance or being treated as sell-outs.

Presidential aspirants’ dilemma aside, officially some parties on Wednesday  claimed they were working on pre-election coalitions in a bid to form a formidable force that could deliver the presidency.

They also said they were drafting or revising their nomination rules in readiness to submit them to the Registrar of Political Parties, Lucy Ndung’u, and Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission by mid-next month.

“We are preparing the ground for the party to secure the presidency and majority of the parliamentary and Senate positions in the General Election,” said Dujis MP, Aden Duale, the spokesman of Ruto’s United Republican Party.

Constitutional Affairs minister Eugene Wamalwa said his New Ford-Kenya party was in talks with Uhuru’s The National Alliance (TNA) party on pre-election alliance.

“For now, we are strengthening New Ford-Kenya … We still have enough time to discuss pre-election arrangements with TNA and other likeminded parties,” Wamalwa told The Standard.

Abraham Limo, the Secretary General of Mudavadi’s UDF, said the party was exploring possibilities of working with others ahead of elections.

 “We want an election that is won under a pre-election arrangement between political parties because we deem this better than post-election deals,” Mr Limo said.

He added: “We have gained so much ground and we will soon be making an announcement on the matter.”

Education Minister, Mutula Kilonzo, who is also the Wiper Democratic Party secretary general, said work on the rules and any possible coalition the party may enter was in progress.

TNA Secretary General, Onyango Oloo, said the party was willing to enter into pre-poll deals with “other like-minded parties”, but added it was cautious that such an arrangement should be with groups that add value to their party.

Kanu chairman Gideon Moi has said the party National Governing Council will soon meet to decide on pre-election arrangements and whether the party would field a presidential candidate.

Speaking during the September 17 by-elections, Mr Moi explained Kanu would work with parties with whom it shares ideals, but this decision would be subjected to top party top organ as required by its constitution.

The Political Parties Act allows the parties to form coalitions before or after elections, but they must present their nomination rules before elections and that includes names of running mates for presidential candidates.

“Coalitions entered before the elections only help to kill the parties, while those formed after elections build parties,” says Narc-Kenya presidential aspirant, Martha Karua, indicating that her party will go it alone in the elections.