Sunday, September 9, 2012

State House hopefuls forging pre-poll pacts


By Juma Kwayera
Stung by increased fragmentation of support in their turfs, three leading presidential aspirants are racing against time to sew up alliances as insurance against defeat.
At the same time, the younger politicians want to position themselves for subsequent elections when tenure of the winner of the next elections expires.
Odinga’s allies have been pushing for possible alliance with his erstwhile opponents, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto.
But the question is, can Raila, Uhuru and Ruto work together?
Although the moves are still hushed with none of the aspirants willing to talk about them, let alone confirm, emissaries of United Republican Party (URP), and The National Alliance party have been meeting the ODM to explore possibilities of teaming up ahead of elections.
?Among those they are trying to reach are Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM renegade MP William Ruto, who ditched the party in protest to form his URP, to run for president. Last week, Raila was in the North Rift where he said he had no bad blood against Ruto and was ready to work with him again if they strike a political a truce.
Political sniping between the Prime Minister and his rivals has sometimes tended to be vindictive or contested in rent-a-politician-style, with each attempting to undermine competition. Uhuru and Ruto seeking to team up with Raila is informed by the fact the PM would play an important role as the two prepare to face charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court.
There have also been suggestions that either Uhuru or Ruto be DPM Musalia Mudavadi’s running mate. Mudavadi has in the recent past become a ‘problem’ to the ambitions of the two presidential aspirants, as they would have to mark time for 10 years should he run for a second term.
Major realignments
The potential beneficiary of the contemplated realignments is Raila, 67. Clearly, the age factor and generational change are at play, which makes him an attractive proposition for Uhuru and Ruto, although their supporters dismiss such an eventuality.
Strategists in the three camps are persuaded by the PM’s earlier announcement that he would be a one-time president. If it happens, it would put his partner in a clear position to succeed him, as the PM is capable of turning over the Nyanza electoral bloc to whoever agrees to be his running mate.
Candidate Kibaki’s presidential fortunes changed dramatically when Raila declared Kibaki Tosha! before the 2002 General Election.
Asked about the back-channel diplomacy between ODM and URP parties, Cherengany MP, Joshua Kuttuny denied there has been any contact. But he did acknowledge that his counterpart from Dujis Adan Duale had informed him that he (Duale) had “seen” the emissaries PM had sent to meet Ruto, the URP presidential aspirant. Duale could not be reached to shed light on the latest development.
Sources told The Standard On Sunday in confidence that ODM has set up two teams to talk to Ruto and TNA aspirant Uhuru Kenyatta.
While Lands Minister James Orengo and acting Local Government Minister Fred Gumo are the emissaries who have been meeting their counterparts from URP, Raila’s brother, Bondo MP Oburu Odinga, and Immigration Minister Otieno Kajwang’ have been talking to Uhuru’s allies. Yesterday, minister Dalmas Otieno conceded there are behind-the-scenes moves to reunite Ruto and Uhuru with Raila.
“We are not leaving or ruling out anybody in the negotiations. In politics there is no permanent enemies.  Our ultimate aim is to forge a formidable alliance with like-minded parties and individuals so that we form a strong coalition government after the General Election,” said Otieno.
Further, reported falling out between Uhuru and President Kibaki may have forced Uhuru to chart his political path without the President, who he supported in the 2007 presidential poll. But Centre for Multiparty Democracy chairman and Uhuru advisor, Justin Muturi, dismisses the claim.
Uhuru, through his spokesman, Munyori Buku, says talks of a deal with Raila are unfounded.
“Anybody purporting to be Uhuru’s emissary is an idle broker.  The DPM has not, and will not, entertain?political relations with the Prime Minister.  The experiences of?Ruto, Mudavadi, and Najib Balala are clear.  Any relationship with the PM?makes you a pawn in a game of chase and that game can only go one way — the PM’s. Mr Kenyatta is?pursuing?his interests elsewhere,” says Buku.
Two weeks ago after The Standard On Sunday reported about Uhuru’s displeasure with Mudavadi’s forays in his central Kenya turf, an Uhuru aide sent this writer a text message saying the Gatundu MP is in talks with Raila, through Dr Oburu. The aid said Uhuru could not contemplate being Mudavadi’s running mate, an age mate.
 “With Mudavadi as presidential candidate, and him as a running mate, his ambition would stagnate for ten years, which is the constitutional presidential tenure,” the aide said. Ruto’s allies have been categorical that URP will not form alliances until after elections.
“URP will think of coalition with like-minded parties after elections. The dishonesty in ODM put us in a predicament and we are not going to make another mistake of entering a deal with the PM. There is simply no time to negotiate,” Kuttuny, says.
Kuttuny says Ruto treats ICC as a ‘personal’ offensive against him. He says just as ODM may want their support, but in the event the parties agree to work together again, then they would demand a public apology on allegations against Ruto by ODM top brass. A deal between Raila and Uhuru or Raila and Ruto, would be a major coup on rival parties as opinion polls have consistently shown the three have sizeable support individually.
Joseph Magut, lecturer at Kenyatta University, attributes the realignments to conventional wisdom that the circumstances Kibaki cannot hand over power to a tribesman without triggering resentment.
“If Uhuru ran and lost, it would place him in a difficult position. By aligning himself with Raila, he would ease suspicion between the Kikuyu-Luo. But for Uhuru to agree to an alliance, there has to be some horse-trading, as Uhuru and Raila are never known to have a chemistry that works,” says Dr Magut. URP MPs are reading blackmail in claims that there are talks between the PM and their presidential aspirant. But Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto termed a reunion with the PM “a tall order”.



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