Next year’s polls could be deciding moment for VP

By Stephen Makabila                    

History will be in the making if Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka’s name will not be on the presidential ballot.

So far, all indicators are that he is set for his second presidential bid on his Wiper Democratic Movement, formerly ODM-Kenya, ticket.

To local political observers, his bid is unique since he will be the first serving Vice-President to attempt to succeed a retiring president through the ballot.

If he wins the presidency, Kalonzo would also go down history as the third person to have served as VP, and eventually ascended to power.

Retired President Daniel Moi, and his successor Mwai Kibaki achieved the feat. Other former VPs, among them Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Joseph Murumbi, Wamalwa Kijana, George Saitoti, Josephat Karanja, Moody Awori, and Musalia Mudavadi never went beyond the number two slot. Mudavadi, who served the shortest stint as VP, will also be in the presidential race.

The Kalonzo question has, however, seen a historical replay, where no president has ever endorsed his deputy as a preferred successor.

“Kalonzo is in a unique situation because his appointment as VP was for convenience to rescue Kibaki after the bungled presidential election of 2007 and the violence that followed, yet he has to operate within Kibaki’s policies as he fights his own political wars without an endorsement to smoothen his State House bid,” says political analyst Kipchumba Murkomen.

Murkomen, who teaches law at Moi University, says without Kibaki’s endorsement, Kalonzo’s best chance would be if he were lucky to become the G7 Alliance compromise candidate.

“Outside the G7, Kalonzo’s political future is not assured. He faces political assault from all corners, including from Charity Ngilu in his own lower Eastern backyard,” added Murkomen.

But Francis Mwangangi, the national co-ordinator of Wiper Ambassadors, Kalonzo’s campaign lobby, says nothing will distract the VP from his presidential bid.

Good planning

“Everything is going according to script. Other VPs might have failed, but every human being has his or her own luck. With hard work and good planning, he can achieve what others did not,” says Mwangagi. The lobby will next week host a Sh100, 000 a plate dinner to raise funds for Kalonzo’s campaign.

Political Scientist Amukowa Anangwe says it’s a big challenge for Kalonzo to campaign aggressively for the presidency while serving as VP.

“President Kibaki has not been categorical on whom to support in the succession contest and that means that Kalonzo has to be on his own,” said Anangwe, a lecturer at the University of Dodoma in Tanzania.

Anangwe went on: “Kalonzo should not hope for favours from central Kenya for rescuing Kibaki in 2007 because political debts are not realistic. It’s his performance that will determine how he fairs in his second presidential bid.”

In May, President Kibaki denied he had endorsed Kalonzo as his successor after a series of contradictory messages at a presidential function in lower Eastern.

During a stopover in Machakos, while on his way to Kitui for tree planting, the President had appeared to vouch for Kalonzo. “It is your time now. I have worked with him for quite sometime now and I know he is a capable leader. What are you waiting for now?” Kibaki had said.

Former Government Spokesman Alfred Mutua, who was on the entourage but has since resigned to vie for the Machakos County governorship, then sent a message to newsrooms stating Kibaki, had endorsed Kalonzo for President and him (Mutua) for Governor of Machakos County.

No endorsement

Shortly afterwards, Presidential Press Service Director Isaiya Kabira denied Kibaki had endorsed anyone.

Lack of an endorsement has not, however, dampened Kalonzo’s resolve. In July, he was blessed by the Kamba Council of elders to seek the presidency after a series of rallies in his lower Eastern backyard.

Kalonzo has also been working round the clock to mould political alliances and sustain existing ones. The VP has denied the G7 Alliance, where he has increasingly been isolated and reduced to a cheerleader, was headed for break-up, and instead predicted it would be a force in elections.

The alliance brings together the VP, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, and Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa.

But even as he works on alliances, his perennial rival Water Minister and Narc party leader Charity Ngilu is set to cause ripples in lower Eastern.

Ngilu last Sunday launched her presidential bid and re-launched her Narc party after she was blessed by a section of elders in Eastern Province. Her political allies, among them Mutito MP Kiema Kilonzo, have promised a bruising battle for the control of lower Eastern votes.

Mwangangi, who is also the Yatta WDM chairman, dismisses Ngilu’s bid as inconsequential, saying Kalonzo was still the political force in lower Eastern.

“The Kamba Council of Elders that is the custodian of the community’s culture, endorsed Kalonzo for the president and any other person is not recognised,” added Mwangangi. But Ngilu has vowed to achieve her presidential dream.