Raila’s one-term offer targets ‘G7’

By Jacob Ng’etich, Kepher Otieno and Stephen Makabila

ODM’s search for a running mate for presidential aspirant Raila Odinga risks throwing out a surprise result that could catch party stalwarts off-guard.

Few of the purported contenders for the position in the party have the national stature or political weight required to earn a spot on the ticket with the front-runner in the 2013 presidential election.

On the other hand, those outside the party with the right credentials would have to defect into the fold in the next few months to be eligible to join the ticket. This is making the challenge of finding a running mate a nightmare for the Prime Minister.

Registrar of Political Parties Lucy Ndung’u says a presidential candidate can only pick a running mate from among registered party members.?“If two people want to partner, one of them must leave their party and join the partner that is in the presidential race,” she says.

“There is no short-cut.”?Others, however, see pre-election coalitions, which must be sealed by the end of November, as offering an avenue to draw in outside talent into the party (See separate story on Page 9).

Faced with slim pickings internally, some ODM leaders are trying to talk potential rivals in other parties into a pre-election deal with the promise Raila will be a one-term president. Deputy PM Uhuru Kenyatta, 51, and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, 45, are key targets for the running mate offer.

However, neither is showing any signs of interest in the deal. Uhuru is Raila’s strongest rival according to most recent opinion polls, while Ruto is influential in the populous Rift Valley region. The pairing of either one with Raila, 67, would be a game-changing political coup.

“Raila is ageing and Uhuru and Ruto are still young,” Public Service Minister Dalmas Otieno told the Standard On Saturday.
“Why don’t we reward (Raila) for the fight (to have reform) then he will leave it to the young (in 2017)?”

ODM Secretary-General Anyang Nyong’o confirmed the party has teams reaching out to party rivals.?“We are looking at various proposals to allow us make informed decisions at the right time,” Prof Nyong’o told The Standard on Saturday yesterday.

“We have to listen to the people and what they want. So if they demand we work with Uhuru or Ruto, we will have no choice but to do so.”?Lands Minister James Orengo, who is also among those allegedly tasked to reach out to Uhuru, says the one-term offer is legitimate and has merit.

Others said to be reaching out to Uhuru and Ruto include ODM chairman Henry Kosgey, Cabinet minister Franklin Bett and Assistant Minister Oburu Oginga. Kosgey and Bett are among the internal hopefuls for running mate.

One-term pledge
“If (Uhuru or Ruto) accept to back Raila, who has indicated he would go for only one term, then their patience would pay off,” Orengo said. 

Raila has never publicly confirmed the one-term pledge first made by Assistant minister Margaret Wanjiru several months ago. We also could not confirm any alleged overtures to ODM rivals based on this pledge.

Indeed, some of our sources say Orengo and Otieno could merely be turning the ‘generation change’ argument used against Raila on its head to influence debate. Rather than have it hurt Raila in elections, they argue his age makes him amenable to a pre-election deal that binds him to retire in 2017.

UDF’s Musalia Mudavadi rejected similar promises when he left ODM.?The search in ODM has focused largely on the vote-rich Rift Valley and Western regions. At least two ODM Cabinet ministers (Kosgey and Bett) have offered themselves for the position.

Others whose names have been floated include Kenneth Marende, Margaret Wanjiru, and Fred Gumo. However, some party sources claim they may all be passed over in favour of Agriculture minister Sally Kosgei.

Our sources say the Aldai MP is the choice of an inner circle that has spent more than a year evaluating the possible choices. This despite the fact that she is a relative political lightweight whose relationship with the Prime Minister has sometimes seemed strained.
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Her name has floated to the top as part of a second-round strategy that assumes Raila and Uhuru face-off in a run-off after a first-round with Ruto on the ballot. The choice was made after considering several factors, including Dr Kosgei’s international connections, her familiarity with the workings of Government, her gender, and ethnic background.

It is, however, expected to be politically controversial given her limited draw as a political player in the Rift Valley, where two other possible running mates would be ignored.

“The strategy is to convince the Kalenjin that one of their own will be Deputy President in an ODM government,” explained a source familiar with the thinking involved.

“In the event (Ruto, a URP presidential aspirant) does not make it to the run-off, the Kalenjin would find it easy to vote for the PM.”

Meet approval
The internal team’s proposal must meet with approval from party flag bearer and the ODM National Delegates Council.
Raila, whose naming as the party candidate seems a formality, is expected to disclose his running mate at a National Delegates Congress later this year.

It would be a surprise if he agreed with the informal think tank that wants him to pick the Aldai MP.?

Dr Kosgei hasn’t been particularly close to Raila. In February, last year, she declared she was joining an ODM rebel camp led by Ruto. She told a rally in Nandi she would stick with him even if it cost her the Cabinet position.?

“I don’t care about losing my position as a minister,” she said.
“This flag is not important to me. I sometimes use it to evade traffic jams in the city.” ?

A month later, the publication of United States diplomatic cables revealed a 2008 conversation in which she was quoted bad-mouthing Raila to US envoys.

She described the PM as a “strong candidate with poor management and organisational skills”.

Former Raila aide Miguna Miguna later claimed Dr Kosgei suffered public “humiliation” from Raila and his wife Ida in the months after news of her unflattering remarks broke. This has been denied.?

Barack Muluka, who heads communication at the Raila campaign secretariat, says any talk of possible running mates is a “floating balloon”.

“The right person will make the announcement at the right time,” he said.? While in the North Rift recently, Raila came under pressure from supporters of Industrialisation Minister Henry Kosgey to pick him as his running mate.

The PM, however, said that task lies with the NDC. ?“The party constitution bars me from naming a running mate without involving delegates,” he said. “Let us leave the matter with the delegates.”