Raila’s carrot that’s proving hard to dangle

By Stephen Makabila and  Kepher Otieno

ODM leader Raila Odinga’s alleged offer to be a one-term president has aroused scepticism and curiosity over how such a deal would work. A debate has now arisen over:

*Whether pre-election coalitions can or should have candidates from two parties on a joint ticket, and Whether pre-election deal promises by the presidential candidate not to run in 2017 have any legal or political value.

Close allies are portraying the Prime Minister as content with being a one-term president. But the challenge of persuading Raila’s rivals this is not a campaign ruse intended to raise the ODM leader’s fortunes is immense. And even if the matter of political honesty were overcome, there are apparently huge legal hurdles concerning such a political union.

The Registrar of Political Parties Lucy Ndung’u says a presidential candidate can only nominate a running mate from among his party members. But politicians are nursing the idea that a pre-election pact could allow leaders from different parties to run for president and deputy president together. Ndung’u added running mates should be named at least 45 days to the General Election.

The ‘Raila-will-be-a-one-term-president’ carrot has previously been dangled before Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi without success. ODM leaders had hoped to prevent Mudavadi’s challenge for ODM’s presidential ticket and eventual departure by promising to fall in behind him in 2017.

 The Sabatia MP’s aide Kibisu Kabatesi claims the PM sent Luhya elders to make the offer. ODM now hopes to sell the idea to Deputy PM Uhuru Kenyatta or Eldoret North MP William Ruto.

Cabinet Ministers Dalmas Otieno, James Orengo, Henry Kosgey, and Finance Assistant Minister Oburu Odinga have made no secret that they are pushing for Raila to work with either Uhuru or Ruto.

Orengo and Otieno cite Raila’s age (67), arguing he would be 73 years at the time he completes the first term in 2017 if elected president.

“This means if any of them accepts to back Raila, who has indicated that he would go for one term, then their patience would pay off,” Orengo said.

But Raila has not stated he is seeking high office for a single term. He has avoided the issue even when nudged at public rallies by his allies.

In May, when Raila toured Nyeri County, Housing Assistant minister Margaret Wanjiru implored central Kenya voters to elect him as a transition president.

“Raila is not interested in ten years (two terms), but only five to transform the country,” Wanjiru told residents in Kikuyu. Raila avoided the issue when he spoke.

The history of dishonoured memorandum of understanding does not help the champions of the cause either. And although the new electoral laws anchor pre-election agreements, some observers suggest an undertaking that one would run for one term is dicey in law. Besides challenges to ensure such commitment is bankable, politicians could be confronted with another dilemma.

Registrar of Political Parties Lucy Ndung’u maintains a presidential candidate can only pick a running mate from among registered party members.

“If two people want to partner, one of them must leave his or her own party and join whomever the partner is in the presidential race. There is no shortcut,” Ndung’u said.

But political scientist Amukowa Anangwe, an ODM operative, suggest a deal is possible.

“I have the Constitution, I know what is happening on the ground,” he says. “Issues of running mate are internal party affairs, but politics is an art of the possible and deals can be cut. It is an open-ended game and it is possible to bargain and cut deals with a non-party member.”

Head of Political Science at the University of Nairobi, Adams Oloo, said only coalition agreements can be deposited with the registrar’s office. “Under the new Constitution, issues of who is whose presidential running mate are personal or could be subjected to party organs in a developed democracies,” added Dr Oloo.

Lawyer James Mwamu, LSK national council member, argues running mate deals between individuals are unconstitutional.

“There is no way two people can privately strike a deal and become presidential running mates,” noted Mwamu.

Senior Counsel, lawyer Paul Muite notes any deal between politicians from separate political parties have to be deposited with the registrar under a pre-election arrangement.

“Under the new Constitution, there can never be deals between two individuals,” noted Muite.