Raila rivals rocked

By Standard on Saturday Team

PM Raila Odinga (centre) and Peter ole Mositet (right) arrive in Kitengela in Kajiado North. [Photo: Peterson Githaiga/Standard]

ODM leader Raila Odinga is working to turn back the tide after a series of setbacks against rivals offering “generation change” and “clean politics”.

Political observers see several recent developments working in his favour amid claims the Prime Minister is deliberately keeping his rivals busy fending off grassroots challenges. The moves come as he acts to quell dissent in his party over nominations in his Nyanza stronghold and unfulfilled resettlement promises in the South Rift.

The formal entry of Water Minister Charity Ngilu and Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo into the presidential race is among the developments seen to help Raila press the advantage in perceived hostile zones. While some rivals see ODM machinations in the announcements, the PM’s camp says these and other favourable events are not of their making. They, nonetheless, are happy to milk whatever political capital there is to gain from them.

“We did not create the advantages that ODM is likely to get from areas with many candidates,” says Chief Whip Jakoyo Midiwo. “But we will be more than willing to seize the opportunities when they come along.”

Rivals say ODM is encouraging political competition in Western, Eastern, and Central regions, where the party faces opposition, in the hope of picking up the spoils in the ensuing duels. Interestingly, this echoes Jirongo’s claims that State House had sponsored parties and candidates to influence the 2013 poll – a claim denied by President Kibaki and others around him.

Education minister Mutula Kilonzo sees the problem developing across the political divide, warning that the regime of party discipline envisaged under the Constitution was being undermined.

“What we see are parties popping out of the pockets of political mandarins purely to undermine regions and individuals,” Mutula says. “And I dare say you have not seen anything yet. Wait until you go to a run-off.”

Less than a week after declaring she would run for president on a Narc ticket, Ngilu has had to deny she is working for ODM as a “spoiler” intended to stem VP Kalonzo Musyoka’s influence. The accusation came from former minister Francis Nyenze who quit Narc for Kalonzo’s Wiper Democratic Movement. Ngilu, who had expressed support for Raila earlier, kept a low profile for a while before her surprise and belated entry into the race to State House, two weeks ago.

Ngilu has not indicated any reason she would have a rift with Raila. In 2007, ODM was counting on Kilome MP Harun Mwau to rally support in Ukambani. The Kitui Central MP decided to lend her support in October that year, thus getting herself kicked out of Cabinet, and went on to describe Raila as “Kenya’s Nelson Mandela”.

Last week also saw Jirongo launch a presidential bid under the Federal Party of Kenya. This followed months of railing against the G7 Alliance and what he said were six State House-sponsored ‘project parties’ ganging up to block others from the presidency.  Jirongo’s attacks, also aimed at the United Democratic Forum’s Musalia Mudavadi, led to speculation he was carrying water for Raila. When he reported death threats over his campaign in July, ODM Young Democrats from Western Kenya leapt to his aid. Speculation was heightened further when several ODM MPs, including Ababu Namwamba, Manson Nyamweya, Chris Okemo, Millie Odhiambo, and Sospeter Ojaamong appeared at the FPK event.

Namwamba, who was at the FPK event with four other ODM MPs, says the moves by Ngilu and Jirongo had nothing to do with Raila.

“Raila’s candidature does not depend on any other candidate,” the Budalang’i MP said. “Ngilu’s place in the race will have little to do with the PM’s chances.”

In central Kenya, Raila’s strategy has involved a dalliance with former Mungiki leader Maina Njenga, whose entry into politics he may have inspired with a gift of prison reading materials five years ago. Njenga’s journey to the mainstream has involved many ODM figures and Raila allies. On Thursday, the PM campaigned for Njenga’s Mkenya Solidarity party parliamentary candidate ahead of Monday Kangema by-election. Raila’s moves in central Kenya build on an older strategy to tap into the Kiambu-Nyeri divide and other historical splits between the perceived “sons of the Mau Mau” and the elite.  Deputy PM Uhuru Kenyatta’s spokesperson Munyori Buku says such machinations had failed in the past.

“Their traps in the last two years have caught nothing,” he said. “They will not catch anything now.”

Nithi MP Kareke Mbiuki says one should not begrudge ODM any divide-and-conquer tactics because all parties are working on similar plans to win elections.

Cherangany MP Joshua Kuttuny adds that some of those lining up for the presidency may have their own hidden agenda.

“We suspect Ngilu might be warming up to something else,” he says.  Mutito MP Kiema Kilonzo, an ally of Ngilu, says only shortsighted critics would term Ngilu’s bid as designed to split the Ukambani vote.

Another development of interest was Kanu’s signal that it might back Raila’s presidential bid. Although party chairman Gideon Moi has clarified that only party national delegates could seal a deal, the idea has excited the Raila camp.

Meanwhile, the ODM leader is moving to quell dissent in the party being stoked by South Rift leaders who have stuck with Raila even as others in the Rift Valley find a home in William Ruto’s United Republican Party.

Defection threats by Cabinet ministers Franklin Bett, Magerer Langat, and Beatrice Kones over the delayed resettlement of Mau Forest evictees are seen as either setting the stage for a departure or seeking to drive a harder bargain. Should an exit be unavoidable, it will be back to the strategy board for ODM.

Additional reporting by Edwin Cheserek, Mwaniki Munuhe, Job Weru, Francis Ontomwa and Karanja Njoroge