Those with an interest in the politics of “Luo Nyanza” cannot have failed to notice a rather unusual development reported last weekend. This was that of the 23 losers in the ODM internal party selection process for the Ndhiwa parliamentary seat, only 13 turned up for a “reconciliation” meeting called by the Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
The other 10, who reportedly “snubbed” the PM, were said to be actively campaigning for a candidate from another party. Their objective is to frustrate the alleged “winner” of the controversial ODM nominations – an election in which the only tally initially released was that of the winner, with no indication of the total number of votes cast, or how many votes each of the other candidates received.
Raila is of course the ODM presidential candidate, and has been – for over a decade now – the unquestioned political leader of the Luo community. And just a few years ago, this kind of open defiance in his political backyard, would have been inconceivable. In the end, the PM was able to persuade the rebels to back down. But given ODM's history of highly irregular internal party elections, his problems in this respect are far from over. We could in fact say that they are just beginning.
However, the PM is not alone in facing problems of this kind. Just as things were shaping up very nicely for the Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta; just when he at last seemed set to establish himself firmly as the political overlord of Central Kenya; just when Uhuru seemed set to wield the same level of political influence in his own backyard as Raila has in ‘Luo Nyanza’; there has arisen a revolt against him and his TNA political party, which has – as Kenyan political pundits like to say – “sent him back to the drawing board”.
Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga are both dynasts, carrying on the influence over the nation’s affairs first established by their fathers: founding president Jomo Kenyatta, and his first Vice President, Oginga Odinga. As things stand, they both seem to be facing revolts among the political elite which – if not handled effectively – could see their respective political dynasties fade into irrelevance within a few short years.
Consider the example of retired President Daniel arap Moi, a man who previously had dynastic dreams of his own: In the 2002 General Election which Moi personally selected Uhuru to be his successor, there were many within the Kalenjin political elite who at once saw this as a huge blunder.
But the Kalenjin masses had no such qualms; they had long grown used to following Moi’s lead on how best to cast their votes, and so had no hesitation lining up to vote for Uhuru. Uhuru’s defeat at the hands of current President Mwai Kibaki was a major wake-up call for the Kalenjin grassroots. It revealed that Moi, like the rest of us, is capable of the most absurd miscalculation. Come 2007, the Kalenjin abandoned Moi ‘en masse’, paving the way for the ascendency of Wiliam Ruto.
Of course, propping up the inexperienced Uhuru Kenyatta as a presidential successor was a far greater folly than anything we have seen happen in Kangema (in the case of Uhuru) or Ndhiwa (in the case of Raila). But whatever the case, the underlying pattern is one of a major political figure, being seen to impose a candidate on the voters of a region.
Even if it may well be true that Raila had nothing to do with the Ndhiwa shenanigans, which saw one Agostino Neto win that controversial nomination; and even if it was not in obedience to Uhuru’s wishes that the TNA election officers were reportedly told that they must ensure victory for Tiras Ngahu; still the public perception is that the only reason for the eventual winners’ good fortunes, was that they had the blessing from on high.
Now as of this point, it seems that it is only the elite – the constituency-level political candidates and their advisers and friends – who are upset and disillusioned with what they see as the overbearing and undemocratic ways of their regional political kingpins. It seems to me that both Raila and Uhuru still retain the ‘fanatical’ support of the masses in their respective political backyards.
And of course it is the masses who vote, at the end of the day. However, the example of retired president Moi, reminds us that what starts of as an opinion limited to the regional political elite, can easily evolve into a broad grassroots consensus, in a fairly short time.
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