Wednesday, September 26, 2012

By-Election Wins Not Good For TNA



E-mailPrintPDF
Share/Save/Bookmark
In the recent by-elections the party of the moment is certainly TNA. Although I support ODM, I must accept that for a party that is less than four months old, they did extremely well! However, I am not worried that these victories are a threat to my preferred 2013 presidential candidate for the simple reason that they are so clearly one-off. In fact they could very well be their best, but only political victories, ever.
I will use a historical context to illustrate my point. A great battle was fought between King Pyrrhus of Epirus and the Roman Consul Publius at Asculum in Apulia in 279 BC. At this battle King Pyrrhus’ forces were victorious, but the cost of this victory was the loss not only of a great part of the forces the King had taken with him to the battle, but also of almost all his allies and principal commanders.
Consul Publis on the other hand, despite losing the battle, was able to quickly recruit fresh men from the Italian regions where the battle had taken place, as they had historically been friendly to Rome. These new recruits were also angry at the losses their home region had incurred at the hands of the victorious Epiriotic forces and were very motivated for a repeat encounter.
In this repeat engagement in 275 BC at the battle of Beneventum King Pyrrhus ended up losing the battle to the Romans. Since then the term ‘Pyrrhic Victory’ is used to refer to a victory that comes at such a devastating cost, it carries within itself the seeds of future loss. TNA's by-election victories are 'pyrrhic' in that they go against the message they have been at the forefront of selling of the need for an alliance against ODM as the only way to stop Rt Hon Raila Odinga from being the 4th President of Kenya next year.
They forgot their own advice and in the heat of battle won victories in several key areas that show that they have no genuine intentions of building alliances with anyone. Kangema and Kajiado are a case in point. These seats actually belonged to President Kibaki’s PNU party; a party that had clearly indicated it willingness to support TNA’s 2013 presidential bid once Kibaki retires next year.
PNU must therefore have imagined that TNA would realize that considering these 2 seats were lost in sad circumstances that left both the party and President vulnerable, TNA would support its candidates in the by-elections to ensure the President was not embarrassed during the tail-end of his presidency.
Unfortunately TNA decided to use the by-elections to ‘power-project’, and in their zeal to do this they were willing to go to any extent to win: even using ODM 2007 candidate against the late PNU Chairman George Saitoti, to ensure they won the Kajiado seat. I have a feeling these two victories could very well have lost them a key ally in PNU, and the retiring President. The message to parties whose leaders come from the Mt Kenya Kenya is even more dire. Saba Saba Asili, Saba Saba Mzalendo, GNU, APK, etc have been insisting that they support TNA’s presidential bid, but will run their own candidates at local level.
TNA is telling them that there is no difference between them and Marth Karua’s Narc-Kenya, Peter Kenneth’s KNC, Paul Muite’s Safina or Maina Njenga’s Mkenya Solidarity, that are overtly campaigning against TNA. TNA, like a political bully on steroids, is saying it will not share; whether you are claiming to be their ally or against them, but will completely crush any party in the region that dares go against them; on this there are no negotiations.
In Eldoret it was even worse. In a civic seat that URP, a TNA ally, needed to win to show its relevance towards the 2013 general election TNA decided even here it must win. This is despite the fact that URP had gone against the general expectations that it would nominate a Kalenjin, and nominated a Kikuyu (maybe as a silent plea to TNA for support). TNA was having none of this and humiliated URP by beating them three times over.
ODM, on the other hand, used these by-elections to consolidate its own strong-holds while stretching out a hand of friendship to possible allies. In Kangema they allowed a much weaker ally to run for this seat so as to build its national image; even having the ODM party leader fly in to share a platform with a candidate despite all indications that he would not win.
ODM knew the importance of this by-elections to new parties and was willing to sacrifice to have them benefit. ODM also avoided humiliating any of its current and/or potential allies, and actually used the by-elections to clearly show that it is willing to work in a coalition with other like-minded party under a common cause, instead of a common party. ODM understands that creating an equitable and just society and implementing the constitution will require compromise and negotiation across a wide spectrum, not bullying and short-term power projection tactics.

No comments:

Post a Comment