Realignments to define polls, analysts predict
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Updated Monday, May 28 2012 at 22:45 GMT+3
By Vitalis Kimutai
Shifting political alliances has rocked the country with key presidential hopefuls searching for new parties and partners ahead of elections.
For a number of aspirants, the next General Election will be a do or die affair as they would be barred by their ages from contesting in future polls. They are doing all they can to ensure they feature in the ballot paper.
Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta was the recent case of leaders shifting party allegiance. He crossed from Kanu to The National Alliance two weeks ago. This followed his resignation as Kanu national chairman, a month ago.
Weeks earlier, his counterpart Musalia Mudavadi had quit ODM for United Democratic Forum after months of disagreement over ODM party election and nomination rules.
Early this year, Eldoret North MP William Ruto marshalled his troops into joining the United Republican Party after a spat with Prime Minister Raila Odinga in ODM and a subsequent leadership wrangle in United Democratic Movement.
Reform agenda
Mr Titus Bitok, a Moi University law lecturer and political analyst says the unfolding scenario is hinged on the cases facing four Kenyans — including Uhuru and Ruto — at the International Criminal Court in relation to post election violence of 2008.
“There are pro and anti-change elements coming together as the country prepares for elections. My concern is the platform the contestants are going to use,” Bitok said.
Bitok said the country is gripped around the unfolding scenario in ICC, which is shaping the re-alignments ahead of the polls and that there is fear some aspirants may be locked out of the race.
“The position taken by the Chief Justice Willy Mutunga on enforcement of Chapter Six of the Constitution (on integrity and leadership) might result in locking out of some candidates, but they will coalesce around some group or alternative candidates,” Bitok said.
According to Bitok most Kenyans might not vote around tribal blocs this time around as they are clear on the Kenya and leadership they want. He also urged international community to keep off the election process as “we have come of age and we know the decisions we are going to make”.
Former Makadara MP Reuben Ndolo said the country was set to realise more realignments as the clock ticks towards the elections. “Many more politicians are going to shift allegiance to parties and others are going to form coalitions so as to have a formidable team that can deliver in the election.”
Ndolo said going by past elections, the defining moment is three months before the votes are cast.
“It will become more clearer three months to the election who is going to be forming coalitions with who and who will have stepped down to back another candidate. It is too early in the day to use the unfolding scenario to gauge the voting pattern,” Ndolo said.
Mr Tom Aosa, the national chairman of Community-Based Organisations’ board said Kenyans should be wary of leaders forming alliances on tribal or regional blocs as it has the potential to divide the people.
“The new political dispensation does not allow for formation of regional parties and political outfits,” Aosa said, adding that Kenyans should elect leaders with integrity and who have potential to unite the people and put in place policies that would make us economic powerhouse in Africa.
Mr Gor Semelango, a social policy management expert and publisher who is also leader of Federal Party of Kenya said more politicians would be expected to switch parties this week.
Youth factor
“This week will be crucial for most undecided politicians as the Registrar of Political Parties is expected to release list of parties that have complied with set laws and those that would be deregistered,” Samalengo said.
Semelango said parties that would be willing to craft alliances would also be free to engage in talks.
Mr Bernard Koros, the co-ordinator of the National Vision Party South Rift branch said many parties including his had given many leadership slots to youthful professionals ahead of the polls.
“It is the youthful voters who will have a final say on elective posts,” he said adding that leaders shifting parties or rebranding the existing ones were keen to take youths on board.
These re-alignments have seen Raila’s Orange party deserted by key leaders including former Tourism minister Najib Balala, Mudavadi, Ruto and more than 30 MPs.
Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka has been working round the clock to rebuild his image after being sidelined by the G7 alliance that has Uhuru, Ruto, Cabinet ministers Eugene Wamalwa, Chirau Ali Mwakwere and Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo on board.
However, even as the VP seeks to market himself as the most suited leader to succeed Kibaki in State House, his Wiper party chairman Samuel Poghisio (also minister for Information) has gravitated towards URP. Poghisio has been hobnobbing with the URP team across Rift Valley with their recent engagement being in the Coast.
Kiraitu’s dilemma
Narc Kenya’s Martha Karua has since lost former vice chairman and Assistant Minister Asman Kamama to URP.
Though Uhuru is working closely with Wamalwa, a man widely believed to be his presidential running mate, both are in different parties. Wamalwa (leader of New Ford-Kenya), recently sought to dispel rumours he was being propped up as Uhuru’s running mate in a way that was not entirely convincing to many.
Uhuru moved to TNA with Cabinet ministers Yusuf Haji, Prof Sam Ongeri, Dr Naomi Shaaban, Jamleck Kamau among others.
In Musalia’s UDF are MPs Abdikadir Mohamed, Jeremiah Kioni, George Khaniri, Justus Kizito, Njoroge Baiya, Abu Chiaba, Joseph Lekuton, Kabando wa Kabando and Nderitu Mureithi.
Ruto’s URP camp has Mwakwere, Assistant minister Kazungu Kambi, MPs Aden Duale, Muhamud Mohamed and Mohamed Sirat, former House Speaker Francis Kaparo, and former MP Omingo Magara among others.
Meanwhile, Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi is still optimistic his Alliance Party of Kenya will nominate Uhuru, Kalonzo or Internal Security minister George Saitoti as the presidential flag bearer even though they are in other parties.
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