Is this Saitoti’s best chance?

By Emeka-mayaka Gekara gmayaka@ke.nationmedia.com And Julius Sigei jsigei@ke.nationmedia.com Posted Saturday, October 8 2011 at 22:00 In Summary •Cases at ICC, anti-Raila campaign and Kibaki’s need for self-preservation may take him into State House Share This Story 6 Share Internal Security George Saitoti has spent almost all his political life around the presidency — yet he has remained far from it. Related Stories Restless PNU meets over flagbearer PNU alliance woos other parties PNU pact will soon crumble, says Raila By virtue of his Cabinet appointments — as vice-president and head of influential ministries — he has had largely unfettered access to the presidency. An Harambee House operative told the Sunday Nation how Prof Saitoti walks into the President’s meetings — even those not related to security — sits quietly, makes notes and goes back to his office. Prof Saitoti is determined to chair similar meetings and reckons that he is most qualified having learnt from President Moi and his successor, President Kibaki. There is a common denominator between the three men; they all have at one time served as vice-presidents. This is a source of hope for Prof Saitoti that he might also at one time occupy the seat despite the odds. As vice-presidents, Mr Moi and Mr Kibaki confronted strong waves that almost swept them aside from the presidential succession line. Before the 2002 election, Prof Saitoti was seen as heir apparent of President Moi whom he served as VP for more than a decade. However, President Moi dramatically side-stepped him and picked Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, then a political greenhorn, to succeed him. The Moi project crumbled when Mr Raila Odinga led dejected Nyayoists, including Prof Saitoti, out of Kanu and teamed up with Mr Kibaki, then opposition leader, and won the 2002 General Election. The height of his humiliation was a meeting in his Masailand back yard where President Moi explained his reasons for sidestepping him. Speaking in Swahili, and in the presence of Prof Saitoti, the President said; “Huyu makamu wa rais ni rafiki yangu. Lakini urafiki na siasa ni tofauti…” (The vice president is my friend. But politics and friendship are two different things.) Prof Saitoti occasionally makes reference to the Narok event. “Kama kuna mtu ambaye amefanyiwa majaribio, ni mimi Prof Saitoti. Hata walijaribu siku moja kunipatia poison. (“If there is anybody who has been subjected to tribulations, it is I, Prof Saitoti. At one time they even tried to poison me) he told a rally in Kikuyu Town in 2003. His supporters say that next year’s elections will be a do-or-die affair for the minister. But will Prof be lucky this time round? A combination of factors, mainly the proceedings at the International Criminal Court, the desire to stop Prime Minister Raila Odinga, politics of ethnicity, experience, financial resources and President Kibaki’s post-State House self-preservation plans, might work for or against a Saitoti presidency. The power elite around President Kibaki are rallying support for Mr Kenyatta who, however, is caught up in a crimes against humanity case at the ICC that will either be confirmed or rejected in January. Mr Kenyatta is a member of the so-called G7 alliance comprising Prof Saitoti, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Eldoret North MP William Ruto. Mr Ruto is also fighting the same allegations as Mr Kenyatta at The Hague. Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto’s presidential aspirations are intimately tied to the outcome of the ICC proceedings. Well aware of this, it is emerging that the President’s advisors are considering Prof Saitoti as possible Plan B and compromise PNU alliance presidential candidate if the ICC cases are confirmed. It is reported that Mr Ruto’s party has also been reaching out to Prof Saitoti, the PNU chairman. “Professor is a respecter of alliances. He will vie under the PNU alliance and will respect the outcome of the primaries. But Mr Ruto is also a friend and Rift Valley is one. We are talking with him,” said Mr Peter Sapalan, the PNU alliance national organising secretary, who is an aide of the minister. Mr Sapalan told the Sunday Nation that the minister has set up a campaign secretariat and that he will launch his presidential drive before the end of the year. For the time being, President Kibaki and his entourage are confident that the ICC will not indict Mr Kenyatta, who could, therefore, be their presidential candidate. President Kibaki has himself declared that he will not endorse any presidential candidate. “Should the ICC finally indict Mr Kenyatta, their back-up candidate would be the minister for Internal Security George Saitoti who has the advantage of his dual ethnic origin: Maasai and Kikuyu,” says an article in the current issue of the investigative newsletter Africa Confidential. This fallback strategy would boil down to an epic battle between Prof Saitoti and Mr Odinga. Then it would be a case in which the former vice-president could end up reaping from competing political interests, that do not touch directly on him — in this instance the anti-Odinga sentiment over the ICC hearings and highly tribalised politics. “They consider that even if Mr Ruto is not indicted by the ICC, his political influence is only limited to the Rift Valley region, whereas Prof Saitoti has a national dimension. The UDM’s acting chairman and former Speaker of the National Assembly, Mr Francis ole Kaparo, recently contacted Prof Saitoti to ask him to consider the possibility of becoming the UDM’s champion in the 2012 election,” the newsletter says. Having served as President Moi’s principal assistant for 13 years, Prof Saitoti regards himself as the most experienced politician in PNU, only second to the President. His aides say it is the professor’s thinking that the rest of the group should support him. However, his critics, such as university lecturer Herbert Kerre, say that despite his huge resources, the minister lacks a strong constituency and is perceived as indecisive and tactless. It has also been pointed out that though Prof Saitoti successfully steered the implementation of the free primary education programme, the Sh4.2 billion which has come to haunt his successor, Prof Sam Ongeri, was lost when the mathematician was at the helm of the ministry. In his defence Throughout his reign, President Kibaki has demonstrated strong confidence and respect for Prof Saitoti. Perhaps the only time President Kibaki has come out in defence of somebody outside the First Family, he at one time called a press conference to shield Prof Saitoti against an unrestrained attack by the First Lady over the petrol fire in Sachangwan. Pitching for his experience, Prof Saitoti two weeks ago pointed out that he had not only been vice-president for 13 years but also led prime ministries, even occupying both Internal Security and Foreign Affairs docket for almost a year. Though hardly talked about, his backers point out to his huge financial resources (which can fund campaigns), loyalty, and the old Kanu network as some of his advantages. The strategy by those backing Prof Saitoti is that when push comes to shove, he will be in a position to attract both the Kikuyu and Rift Valley vote including the Maasai who overwhelmingly voted for Mr Odinga in the last election. Whereas his critics see his multi-ethnic associations as the minister’s major undoing, his supporters see it as a major plus. Businessman Taleng’o ole Kiptunen says: “Prof Saitoti does not have a tribal constituency. The other candidates come to the presidential race with solid support from their ethnic communities. But Prof Saitoti enters the ring as a Kenyan with no ethnic baggage.” Mr Kiptunen said Prof Saitoti can be sold to the youth as a model of a detribalised Kenya. “The accusation that he has failed to learn Maa culture and language and has not been publicly heard speaking Kikuyu can actually help brand him as a tribe less candidate while at the same time retaining the support of those communities which lay claim to him.”