Sunday, October 16, 2011

G7 changes tack on Raila




Updated 8 hr(s) 39 min(s) ago
By Alex Ndegwa
Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s knack to make political capital out of schemes by rivals has seen the Group of 7 Alliance change tack in the battle to succeed President Kibaki.
The alliance is determined to shake off a potentially costly perception that they thrive on personality bashing, and a desire to stop the PM from ascending to the Presidency in the 2012 elections.
Only this past week, the G7 appeared to be changing tack to, instead, focus on important national issues and demonstrate how differently the country
can be governed.
On Saturday, this seemed to be vindicated by political analyst, Mutahi Ngunyi, who reckons that the G7 alliance seemed to be now embracing a counter-Raila rather than an anti-Raila strategy heading into the election year.
The counter-strategy involves the alliance articulating what they stand for to win hearts and minds of Kenyans, rather than personal attacks against the PM, which does not appear to work if results of recent opinion polls are considered.
"This (counter-strategy) involves ignoring him, giving him the contempt card. Instead (of anti-Raila strategy), spending more time and energy proposing new ways of doing things to win over support," argues Ngunyi.
"When you make Raila the object of aggression rather than competition, you become pre-occupied with him. An anti-Raila campaign would unwittingly build him. In my view, the public is not persuaded that Raila is a bad man and thanks to such a hate campaign, they might become persuaded he is not."
Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Internal Security Minister George Saitoti, who have struck an election pact under PNU alliance, hope to join Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa to field a joint presidential candidate.
Tight race
A survey by Infotrak released on Friday showed that Raila was still the preferred presidential candidate, with 41 per cent support, more than double that of his closest challenger, Uhuru, who polled 19 per cent.
The combined ratings of the five G7 leaders is 28 per cent, and even more worrying for them is the surge of another rival, Narc-Kenya’s Martha Karua, who was ranked third with 11 per cent.
On Thursday, Ruto hosted 40 MPs drawn from the rebel wing of ODM set to decamp to UDM, Kanu and Narc-Kenya for a meeting at the former International Bible School in Nairobi.
Ruto is seen to be extending his political network and UDM’s to counter the influence of the PNU alliance during joint G7 presidential nominations. The new campaign strategy to avoid dwelling on the PM, and instead showcase the alternative governance the group offers, including extolling Ruto’s record at the agriculture docket, reportedly featured at the talks.
Dujis MP Aden Duale, who attended the meeting, told The Standard on Sunday that participants agreed on a "partnership on national issues", including establishment of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.
Duale said it had been resolved the alliance would no longer be preoccupied with Raila during its campaign meetings.
Ngunyi argues they might have realised it is counter- productive and it could explain Ruto’s recent turn to address issues like constant reference to unemployment.
Duale explained that the first phase of the G7 strategy involves leaders consolidating support in their respective regions, adding, "we are now moving on to the second of selling our manifesto".
"We had a meeting that agreed focus be on issues of national importance, including implementation of the Constitution, unemployment, issuing ID cards, and raising the standards of living.
The top leadership of the G7 alliance must address these issues and forget about an individual. But of course in rallies you have no control over what other speakers will say," Duale said.
Medical Services Assistant Minister, Kazungu Kambi, who also attended the meeting, said: "We are wasting a lot of time with somebody who’s going nowhere. We are now concentrating on articulating the vision to develop our country." Kambi says the G7 is targeting 180 MPs in a formidable campaign to form the next government.
Ngunyi explains: "The anti-Raila strategy was bound to run into blocks. When you spend a lot of time opposing something you have no time to propose new things. And you are likely to make miscalculations that are turned against you."
The political goof like the KKK alliance, which Raila turned into a poisoned chalice for his rivals with a running narrative of exclusivity.
"Where will the people who do not belong to any of the ‘Ks’ go?" Raila often asked at public meetings.
Wary of the inevitable backlash had the KKK label stuck, Ruto, Uhuru and Kalonzo denounced the alliance, stressing they are interested in only one ‘K’ for Kenya.
The VP even likened suggestions of such an alliance to hate speech, inviting the National Cohesion and Integration Commission to act.
Mr John Mwazemba, a commentator on social and political issues, wrote in January how the PM turned the KKK alliance, which was meant to stop him on his tracks, into a lifeline.
"Obviously, that is not what proponents of the alliance hoped for, but they need to quickly fight this emerging narrative or they could spend all their campaigns explaining why they are not KKK. That could take a lot of political capital, as they may not even have the time to explain what they stand for," Mwazemba argued.
Raila has also made a mockery of the campaigns by rivals on generational change.
Tough contest
The G7 leaders have poured cold water on Raila’s challenge for the alliance to name the candidate who would face him in the 2012 General Election, charging they would not impose any leader on Kenyans "like Raila has already done".
And recently the PM’s camp has exploited attacks on the Raila to portray his rivals as having no other agenda except to block him from the presidency. "
The politics of personality bashing would have worked in an ethnicised environment, but not anymore since Kenyans are determined to de-ethnicise following post-election violence," Ngunyi contends.
But ODM nominated MP Millie Odhiambo is unimpressed saying there is nothing new coming from her party’s rivals.
"The G7 is only interested on three issues: One to remove Raila, two to remove Raila, and three to remove Raila," she said.
Larry Gumbe, a former chairman of the Centre for Multiparty Democracy, concurs. He says G7 members are not glued together by ideology, but the desire to seize power.
"The biggest obstacle to their march to power is Raila and they have to fight him. But in this campaign they keep shifting goal posts because their unity is really not about ideology but self-seeking. They are only held together by the desire to win power," Prof Gumbe says.
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