Will youth topple old guard from the helm?

By Stephen Makabila
The stage is already set and all indications are that this year will be politically charged as political realignments for next year’s General Election take shape.
One of the battlegrounds for political heavyweights will be the huge youth vote. What does the future hold for the Kenyan youth politically in the run up to 2012?
Traditionally the youth have not risen to significance on the political arena. Politicians have instead used them to mobilise support to attain their own ambitions.
President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, during last year’s Jamhuri Day celebrations, claimed the youth were being misused by a foreign power to undermine the Government.

Politicians at a Simama Kenya function. Photos: File/Standard

US Ambassador to Kenya Michael Ranneberger addresses a rally before the 2010 referendum. Photo: File/Standard

US President Barrack Obama

The two principals warned that the Government would not entertain any interference from outside. Their target, even without mention of names, was the United States.
Their scathing attack came in the wake of publication of leaked cables revealing that the US Ambassador Michael Ranneberger had written to Washington dismissing both the President and PM as anti-reformists who have benefited from the culture of impunity.
As the clock ticks towards the next General Election, opinion remains divided on whether the much-hyped ‘generational change’ in top leadership can be achieved by turning numbers into votes.
Nairobi Metropolitan Minister Njeru Githae says what matters is one’s ideas that can help the country.
Generational change"Youth is nothing but a number. Even the old guard have good ideas that can assist the country. What is important is to empower the youth economically to have a stake in the country, then political power will follow," said Githae.
The Interim Independent Electoral Commission (IIEC) records show 48 per cent of the 12,477,061 registered voters are between 18 to 35 years.
Another 29 per cent of the voters are aged between 36 and 50 years, while 23 per cent are 51-60 years.
Some youthful politicians have been frantically trying to push for generational change with eyes trained on the presidency.
Some have even been predicting a scenario similar to the US presidential election in 2008, where the youthful Barack Obama trounced his rivals on the platform of generational change by mobilising support through Internet social networks.
What is emerging is a total contrast of yesteryears when youths were relegated to lobby groups campaigning for the old guard.
Among those who have been championing politics of generational change are Eldoret North MP William Ruto, Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa and former Mungiki leader Maina Njenga.
While Ruto commands huge following in Rift Valley, Wamalwa has been courting an alliance with Njenga, but their ultimate goal is common — to propel youth to leadership.
Another ambitious leader viewed to fall within the youthful bracket is Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.
Both Ruto and Uhuru are, however, currently fighting to secure their political lives after having been mentioned on Ocampo’s list of six over the 2007/08 post-election violence.
Largest constituency‘Simama-Kenya’, whose most visible leader was President Kibaki ‘s son Jimmy, was the first vehicle of championing youth empowerment but it has since receded into oblivion.
Shortly after the August 4 referendum, there emerged the ‘Green Alliance’ that brought together youthful leaders, including Uhuru, Wamalwa and Assistant Minister Cecil Mbarire.
"It’s true that we are talking about a Green Alliance movement. It’s about generational transformation in the leadership of our country, which can be best implemented under the new Constitution," Wamalwa once told The Standard On Sunday.
"The 2012 generational change politics will transform this," believes Tony Gachoka, Former Chief of Protocol in the Prime Minister’s office, and argues time has come for the youth to take charge of their destiny.
Since the 2007 General Election, two national youth conferences have been held in Nairobi, where both political and economic empowerment have been major issues.
Between November 10 and 12, 2010, the National Youth Forum (NYF) held its second national youth conference at Karl Henricks Amphitheatre, KICC in Nairobi.
Clinch leadershipThe conference, which was also addressed by Ranneberger and ODM nominated MP Millie Odhiambo, resolved to mobilise and organise more than 10 million young people to actively engage the relevant authorities to ensure diligent and faithful implementation of the new Constitution.
Dr Adams Oloo, a political scientist at the University of Nairobi, argues it may not be easy for the youth to make a political impact in 2012.
"Kenyan politics are still ethnic based and I do not see youths driving on the generational change politics to ascend to power," noted Oloo.
The Vice-President of the East African Law Society (EALS) James Mwamu says the youth wave is gaining momentum but notes that it may be too early for them to clinch leadership in 2012.
"The best chance for the youthful generation to take charge of the country’s political leadership may come at the 2017 General Election," added Mwamu.
Relative termUnited States International University lecturer, Prof Munene Macharia, says chances of the youth uniting to beat the old guard in 2012 are narrow.
Charles Otieno, a governance and public policy specialist at the Institute of Polity and Policy, argues the country is yet to see the last of political dynasties and that the youth should forget their dream.
"For the youth to believe they can wrestle the country’s leadership from the old guard is a myth. It may take us another 15 years to do away with political dynasties," says Dr Otieno.
"Youth is a relative term. Those who are around 20 years-old call those who are 40 old," said Prof Macharia. He further argues that politicians aged 40 and above should not consider themselves young.
The closest a youthful leader moved to the country’s top leadership, was in 2002 when Uhuru — at 40 years — ran as Kanu’s presidential candidate but lost to incumbent President Kibaki.
Macharia and Otieno agree that the voting pattern is so ethnicised even the youth are caught up in the muddle.
However, the youth under the NYF seem to be doing well owing to the financial support they have been receiving from the US government.
The US assistance is the genesis of the current friction between the Government and ambassador Ranneberger.
After the scathing attack on Ranneberger by the two principals, a Motion by Imenti North MP Silas Ruteere seeking to censure and expel the US ambassador for ‘disrespect to the country’s leadership’ over the reports that were published by Wikileaks was shelved.
The Standard On Sunday has established the NYF, which enjoys massive support from the US government through its local embassy, is no ordinary grouping.
In an interview with one of the NYF co-conveners George Nyongesa, the systematic role the US government has been playing in sustaining the group was laid bare (see separate story).