Why Ocampo could derail Raila’s plans

 

By MAKAU MUTUAPosted Saturday, January 15 2011 at 17:44

In Summary

• I think Prime Minister should not waste his breath and political capital defending ICC prosecutor’s suspects

Prime Minister Raila Odinga should heed an old admonition – don’t count your chickens before they hatch. By dint of fate, ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has dealt PNU a more devastating blow than ODM.

To quote W. B. Yates, the Irish poet, for PNU “things fall apart; the centre cannot hold”.

But for Mr Odinga, the PNU troubles are a double-edged sword. Jaramogi’s son should see like a giraffe – far into the distance. He must think like a marathoner, not a sprinter.

That’s because the charges against Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto are both a blessing and a curse. Mr Moreno-Ocampo could have handed Mr Odinga a live political grenade.

Let’s think with our minds, not hearts. On the face of it, the likely removal of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto from the political matrix would seem to smooth the path for Mr Odinga.

Both would have teamed up with VP Kalonzo Musyoka in a formidable KKK alliance to deny Mr Odinga tenancy at the State House.

But I want to warn Mr Odinga that the KKK alliance is not dead – yet. This is why. Even though Mr Moreno-Ocampo may sequester Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto in The Hague, their political footprints will be nearly impossible to erase.

Both leaders are ethnic chieftains who sit atop their communities. In our tribalised politics, the two still hold sway with the hoi polloi.

But there is more. Let’s take the expansive and populous Rift Valley first. There is no doubt that Mr Ruto is the clear leader among the Kalenjin. He “rudely” snatched that mantle from former president Daniel arap Moi. He commands a fanatical following among the Kalenjin.

It’s largely because of him that Mr Odinga’s ODM carried the Kalenjin vote in 2007. He duplicated the same feat during the referendum on the Constitution.

My crystal ball tells me that Mr Odinga has a snowball’s chance in hell of capturing the Kalenjin vote so long as he’s estranged from Mr Ruto.

This may even be truer if Mr Ruto is in Mr Moreno-Ocampo’s jail cell at The Hague.

You may wonder why I am writing off Mr Odinga’s Kalenjin allies. It’s no secret that none of them has the gravitas to sell Mr Odinga in their community. That’s why Mr Odinga should not sully his reputation as a reformer by defending former Industrialisation minister Henry Kosgey, the ODM chairman.

Mr Kosgey has little pull among the Kalenjin. His fervent support for Mr Odinga against Mr Ruto diminished his clout. Mr Odinga will not win the hearts of most Kalenjin because of standing by Mr Kosgey.

He’s lost their vote and won’t get it back. Rather than succumb to ethnic manipulation, Mr Odinga should be a statesman and unequivocally support the ICC.

The only other significant Odinga ally among the Kalenjin was Agriculture minister Sally Kosgei. Dr Kosgei is an able and brilliant thinker, but she lacks the ethnic oomph to rally the Kalenjin.

Which invites the question – should Mr Odinga write off the Kalenjin vote? I don’t think so.

But nor do I think he should waste his breath and political capital defending Mr Moreno-Ocampo’s suspects. This calculation will do him more political damage than he thinks.

It’s one thing to believe that the suspects are innocent until proved guilty, but quite another to support them and insist on their innocence. Mr Odinga cannot have his cake and eat it. He must choose virtue over vice.

My suspicion is that Information minister Samuel Poghisio, the ODM-K chairman, will grow in stature in the Rift Valley. He will benefit from Mr Ruto’s woes because he has stood by him. It is through Mr Poghisio that Mr Musyoka could harvest a basketful of Kalenjin votes.

In Mr Ruto’s absence, Mr Musyoka could be the biggest beneficiary of Kalenjin votes. That’s why Mr Musyoka could still be a worthy opponent for Mr Odinga if he can use Mr Moreno-Ocampo’s charges to consolidate the KKK alliance.

But this is easier said than done. My hunch is that Mr Musyoka may paradoxically do better among the Kalenjin than among the Kikuyu. The Kikuyu may fragment in Mr Kenyatta’s absence.

Mr Odinga should abandon ethnic math as a path to State House. He will get burnt if he plays that game. That’s because Mr Moreno-Ocampo has scrambled the ethnic chessboard.

Mr Odinga can only now rely on the Luo and Luhya vote. That’s not enough to get him over hump. That’s why he must build a coalition of reformers, progressives, women, Muslims, and the poor from every part of the country.

He must look east for a running mate. More importantly, his running mate should be a reformer, a woman, or both. This may turn off the Luhya if he doesn’t pick Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi. Perhaps Mr Mudavadi should run for the powerful Nairobi governor’s post.

Mr Moreno-Ocampo has single-handedly plunged Kenyan politics into uncharted waters. Even my crystal ball is getting a little foggy. But one thing is not in doubt. Mr Moreno-Ocampo may trip – derail – Mr Odinga even though the charges against the Ocampo Six seem to favour ODM.

This is a time of reckoning. Great reformist leaders and statesmen show their true grit at pivotal moments. What will Mr Odinga do? Will he pay lip service to the ICC while winking at Mr Kosgey?

Or will he stand up and be counted? He should read the signs of the times. Kenyans demand change and an end to impunity.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.