Monday, January 17, 2011

Rift in ODM may swallow up Raila

Is Prime Minister Raila Odinga facing the political tsunami of his political career following the planned mass defection by MPs allied to Eldoret MP William Ruto?
Will Raila emerge stronger after the ODM elections, a last minute attempt to sell the party and attract new blood? Losing the Rift Valley bloc would be a big blow to his quest for presidency in 2012.
Our politics is uniquely built around individuals, not issues. Would Luo Nyanza stay put if Raila were to join Kalembe Ndile’s Tip Tip? Or would Nyanza thunderously shout "Amani Kenya"! If Raila was to settle in Kibera selling mandazi, would his followers boycott politics altogether?
Although I sympathise with Raila for this may be his last chance to vie for the presidency, I don’t have any harsh words for his detractors. We must not rush to vilify Ruto and his lieutenants for they have perfected an art learned from the grandmaster of politics.
Raila’s political past is chequered with defections, including when he led a rebellion against former President Moi-led Kanu. The PM then settled for a ‘Rainbow Coalition’ but the marriage barely lasted before he trooped out again and later gave President Kibaki the political scare of his life.
Burning ambitionBut now, the script he created and perfected appears to be working against him. His first mistake was accepting to work with Ruto, a man with burning political ambitions to rival his own.
The two politicians are poles apart but they were able to temporarily cobble a working relationship in 2007 for political convenience. While Ruto was a Kanu diehard, Raila was part of a band of progressive politicians opposed to the Jogoo party.
Ruto’s choice of Raila had nothing to do with a change of heart or similarity of ideas with ODM. Rather, it was occasioned by the wind that caught some politicians napping.
It is said the forces fighting Raila are many, some deep in the corridors of the Coalition Government. Accusations against Raila’s inability to help save youths nabbed for their alleged involvement in PEV have been used to portray him as an ungrateful person.
Those shredding Raila to pieces on this matter are well aware that the powers of his position existed on paper only. He had no authority to demand the release of anybody in custody.
Mau forestThe Mau issue has also returned to haunt the premier politically. Though it was a Cabinet decision, it was Raila who steered efforts to reclaim the water tower only to be pegged as being insensitive to the plight of the rural poor.
When Ruto was temporarily suspended by Raila, and even when he was transferred from the plum docket of Agriculture to Higher Education, it was seen as an attempt to settle scores.
Finally, gullible Kenyans have been led to believe that ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo edited his list to punish Raila’s opponents! When Raila campaigned for a local tribunal, Rift Valley MPs were in favour of The Hague. Now that two MPs are candidates, they have changed tune, again.
Politics is a dirty game and as the storm gathers, we are keenly watching to see if Raila will weather it. He has succeeded in the past, but the odds this time are stacked against him.
{Patrick Opondi, Minnesota}

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