Sunday, January 23, 2011

Railaphobia forcing love among former political rivals

By Billow Kerrow
It is said that in politics, shared hatreds are almost always the basis of friendships. The Ocampomania and Railophobia sweeping parts of the country is certainly forcing love among erstwhile disparate political rivals as political landscape takes shape following the naming of The Hague Six.
The new-found love between Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, borne out of fear than hope, is bound to shake the ground under Raila’s feet in spite of pronouncements to the contrary.
The recent Kericho and Eldoret meetings has cast the three ‘young turks’ into bare-knuckles fight for political supremacy and exposed their single-minded determination to cut Agwambo to size. And President Kibaki has now been drawn in to the succession battle and is a worried man.
He is being asked to end his political ‘honeymoon’ with his coalition partner and complete his remaining term in wrangles by ceding power to these ‘young turks’ to give them a head start.
When you have three or more leading contestants, you will anoint one at the risk of breaking up their infant KKK alliance before it learns to walk the talk. Even within this alliance of convenience, there is a vulturistic patience by those not on the Ocampo list like George Saitoti and Mr Kalonzo, hoping to stand-in should the latter be indicted.
The Kalenjin MPs, who are now the most vocal lot in Parliament, appear to be on a single mission – to fix Mr Raila any way they can. If that means voting in Uhuru as the next president, it would do as it would rub Raila’s nose in the dust. Although they have a neutral person like Kalonzo in the alliance, some do not think electing him President is exacting enough punishment on Raila.
The thinking is that it is only the Central Kenya guys who can teach Luo Nyanza a lesson.
After all, Raila men’s excitement with Ocampo’s work contrasts sharply with Kibaki team’s disappointment with the whole Hague affair. They say if you want to know who your friends are, get a jail sentence. Kalenjins argue that Raila and his people did not even shade a crocodile tear for their sons who may soon be shipped to The Hague. And to add insult to injury, Kalenjins believe Raila team is even opposed to Government efforts to rally African countries against The Hague.
The message to Raila was all too clear when shortly after Christmas, a Kalenjin delegation to his Bondo home made a feverish statement to support him but unequivocally stated they are not ready to ‘die’ for him. Soon afterwards, the two Sally Kosgei and Henry Kosgey threw in the towel and joined the Ruto band as they were not ready to commit ‘political suicide’. And as Kibaki landed in Eldoret, it was clear the Kalenjin had decided that even the fainthearted among them should abandon Agwambo immediately.
But while the Central Kenya is cautiously embracing the Kalenjin political avalanche to their territory, the latter is desperate for reciprocal action against the Raila team. It is still nearly two years away, a long time in politics. Central Kenya is not known to turn political opportunities into benefits, and may well alienate the Kalenjins or Kambas before the ballot day. Will their political leaders listen to their IDPs and cut loose Ruto to Ocampo’s den?
Most ordinary Kikuyus are generally indifferent about The Hague outcome. They feel Uhuru and Kibaki did not do enough to save their people in 2007 and would rather have justice for the victims than remorse for the suspects. For Kalenjins, the old adage that ‘when you make peace with authority, you become the authority’ may be the modest payoff out of their current situation. As politics offers yesterday’s solutions to today’s problems, let’s hope their predicament from the 2007 Railamania will end well.
The writer is a former MP and political economist.

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