The 2012 big game plan

By Oscar Obonyo
The battle lines for next year’s General Election have been drawn even as the main players’ retreat to the drawing board to come up with winning strategies.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga has planned an elaborate strategy to counter the combined force of youthful politicians who have created a formidable barrier to his 2012 Presidential ambitions.
Raila is expected to visit Northern Kenya this week to re-assure his supporters in the region that ODM has not been shaken by the political wave kicked off by Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.

The huge crowd that turned up at the peace rally in Eldoret on Friday. Prime Minister Raila Odinga has planned an elaborate strategy to counter the combined force of youthful politicians who have created a formidable barrier to his 2012 residential ambitions. Photo: Peter Ochieng’/Standard

This came even as details of the points of agreement under the newly-formed Party of National Alliance that brings together most of the parties that backed President Kibaki’s re-election in 2007 (see separate story) emerged.
The Prime Minister is expected in Marsabit and Isiolo on Tuesday to access the drought situation in the region and also to pass his political message.
But Saturday’s ceremony in Bondo in Siaya County to commemorate the death of the father of opposition politics Jaramogi Oginga Odinga provided a platform for ODM politicians to respond to the affront on Raila at Friday’s rally in Eldoret that was attended by President Kibaki.
"The current politics is designed to make Raila look that he is walking alone. Tribal presidential candidates are being cropped up to undermine Raila’s bid for presidency," said Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi (see separate story).
Hotly contested
Next year’s General Election is expected to be hotly contested since President Kibaki will not be eligible for re-election and Uhuru and Ruto may be locked out if the proposed charges against them at the International Criminal Court are upheld by the court.
The politicians seeking to stop Raila from ascending to the Presidency in 2012 have hatched a plan to vigorously campaign in various regions and lock the PM out.
MPs in the Rift Valley, for example, have been telling people at the grassroots that Raila was behind the inclusion of the names of three people from the region in the Ocamp list.
Uhuru has embarked on a campaign to meet various groups of leaders and interest groups in Central and Rift Valley with the message that even if he were to be tried at The Hague, there are enough people to take the mantle of leadership.
Kalonzo has also been meeting various groups to consolidate support for his party. He has also been the most visible face in the campaigns aimed at lobbying the African Union to vote for the deferring of Kenya’s case at the ICC.
The Prime Minister’s party on the other hand is laying down plans to embark on nationwide campaigns for the party after the elections in March.
The party has been going through its toughest period after reports emerged that chairman Henry Kosgey and other officials were drifting away from the party.
From an initial public spat and difference with Ruto, his deputy in ODM, the plot to frustrate Raila’s presidential bid has evolved into a grand strategy, attracting the support of key players everyday.
President Kibaki’s much-hyped reconciliation mission in Eldoret that brought together MPs mainly from Rift Valley and Central regions is one of the latest activities that are raising eyebrows. Billed as a peace mission between two Rift Valley region communities, the Friday event was loaded with political overtones.
The timing of the tour of the President, who shared a podium with some of Raila’s allies-turned-foes, is seen as part of the wider strategy to derail his co-principal’s presidential ambitions.
From KKK (Kikuyu-Kalenjin-Kamba) alliance to the generational shift crusade, strategists of the anti-Raila campaign have toyed with all manner of ploys to isolate him.
And last Thursday Uhuru gave the hint that the campaign to tame Raila may be bigger and wider than what most Kenyans think.
"If they panicked when they saw a few of us together and coined the KKK alliance, I am wondering what they will do when they see us with leaders from every part of the country," said the Finance minister.
The Standard On Sunday has separately established that Gema elders last week tried to reach out to Mudavadi in a bid to lure him into the Uhuru-Ruto camp.
According to our sources, the discussions hinged on a possible 2012 pact with Mudavadi.
Rub shoulders
However reached for comment, Musalia, through his Private Secretary Kibosh Kabatesi, denied knowledge of existence of such talks.
Stating that the Ministry of Local Government is one of the busiest and senior ministries that enjoy Executive authority, Kabatesi said the DPM routinely rubs shoulders with leaders from all corners of the country.
When reached for comment on Saturday on the unfolding political alliances, Youth Affairs and Sports Minister Paul Otuoma dismissed the grouping. He said the Orange party is ready for the premature 2012 battle.
In the meantime, Mutito MP Kiema Kilonzo concedes that one cannot easily write off the PM, considering that he is a seasoned politician.
He, however, observed that Raila should endear himself to youthful leaders. While supporting Kiema’s view that Young Turks should take up political leadership positions, Ikolomani MP Bonny Khalwale warns that the current crop of young politicians have a big challenge.
Although Ruto, Uhuru and Kalonzo seem to be in the same camp, it is increasingly becoming clear that there is a plot to edge out the Vice-President from the political equation.
During the inauguration of a bishop in Kericho last weekend, Ruto seemed to let the cat out of the bag when he said, "I may not know who will be president in 2012 but one thing I am sure is that that person will be below 50 years."
— Additional reporting by Anderson Ojwang