What does Ruto exit portend for ODM?

By STEPHEN MAKABILA

What awaits the country's dominant political party ODM in the event of a walkout by suspended Higher Education Minister William Ruto and his bloc of supporters?

The party, rated the most popular in Kenya today, according to the latest opinion poll results released by the Synovate Pan-Africa last Saturday, convened a retreat the previous week where MPs agreed to revamp it and kick out the so-called party rebels led by Ruto.

Though the poll showed ODM Party leader Prime Minister Raila Odinga is the most preferred presidential candidate at 48 per cent, Ruto is fourth (10 per cent) behind Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta (14 per cent) and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka (12 per cent).

The rating puts Ruto the second most popular candidate in ODM after Raila, given his fellow deputy party leader who doubles as Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi could not be rated.

A section of ODM leaders predict a major political blow, with some going further to indicate it may consume any dream of the party having an easy ride to power come 2012.

"My honest opinion on this is that Ruto’s departure from ODM will be a big political blow to the party given his following in Rift Valley and elsewhere in the country," ODM national Vice-Chairman, Assistant Minister Aden Dualle told The Standard on Saturday.

Scrap position

It has emerged even if the Eldoret North MP does not leave the party, it is planning to scrap his position of deputy party leader, which he holds jointly with Mudavadi.

Plans to scrap Ruto’s position are part of the resolutions reached at the party’s Naivasha retreat last week, attended by 70 MPs but boycotted by those allied to Ruto.

During the Naivasha meeting, the PM had indicated Ruto’s fate was to be known at a National Delegates Conference, whose date is yet to be set. Raila is understood to have made the statement in response to calls by some members who pressed for the meeting to take a tough position on Ruto, including stripping him of his party position.

Assistant minister Magerer Langat, who has defied the Ruto wave in the Rift Valley, was said to have pushed for Ruto and his allies — who have publicly stated they are shopping around for another party — to be expelled.

Mr Magerer was appointed Assistant minister after one of the key Ruto allies, Belgut MP Charles Keter was dismissed.

The Naivasha meeting was held while Ruto was at The Hague, where he went to meet ICC investigators over post-election violence.

The visit left a trail of political shockwaves back home, with the Naivasha meeting reported to have been convened partly due to it.

On his return, Ruto received a heroic welcome from his supporters before launching a scathing attack on the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) over what he has termed ‘coaching of witnesses’ to implicate him in the 2007/08 violence.

Ruto last week also visited CID headquarters to demand that the commission be investigated while his allies want it disbanded altogether.

Dualle, the MP for Dujis, argues Ruto demonstrated he has most parts of Rift Valley Province behind him during the referendum cam away with his bloc.

"Even outside Rift Valley, Ruto enjoys support from pastoral communities in Upper Eastern Province and North Eastern. He has some support in Ukambani, Western and the Coast. He is not someone who can be taken lightly," added Dualle.

He says it is better for both Ruto and Raila to swallow their pride and re-unite, but if they do not, it is Raila’s ambition that may suffer more.

Munene Macharia of the United States International University (USIU)-Kenya argues ODM will be greatly weakened if Ruto leads his supporters out.

"The party came close to winning the 2007 General Election, but it will be harder in 2012 without the wholesome Rift Valley bloc," said Macharia.

The professor of History and International Relations noted whether or not Ruto is cleared in the cases he has in court before election time, he can play kingmaker depending on how his people will view him then.

Macharia agrees with Dualle that Rift Valley leaders allied to the PM cannot stop the Eldoret North MP.

"Some of the ministers and MPs pledging their loyalty to the PM went to Parliament on Ruto’s wave and his support for ODM," added Dualle.

At least five ministers in the province have opted to work with Raila, leaving only Information Minister Samuel Poghisio (MP Kacheliba) close to Ruto.

Ministers from the province working with Raila are Franklin Bett, Sally Kosgei, Henry Kosgey, William ole Ntimama and Hellen Sambili.

But ODM National Organising Secretary Ali Hassan Joho has maintained Ruto’s exit will not shake the party. "ODM has its own structures and it cannot be shaken by the departure of one person and his supporters," said Joho, the Kisauni MP.

Secret talks

It is rumoured at least 40 MPs have signed up to join the new party to be established by Ruto and his allies. The legislators are reported to be in secret talks to work out an alliance around three prominent politicians who have already declared their interest in the 2012 presidential race. Ruto allies have indicated he wants to clear all pending cases against him in six months to enable him prepare for the 2012 presidential contest.

Ruto’s departure may be the second major break of the Orange dream, the first having been the breakaway by Kalonzo’s ODM-Kenya.

Whether Ruto and Kalonzo may team up to revive the triple ‘K’ alliance, bringing together Kikuyus, Kalenjins and Kambas to contain the Raila wave ahead of 2012, only time will tell.