Plot to force presidential run-off in 2012 elections

By Oscar Obonyo
Eldama Ravine MP Moses Lesonett may have let out a secret when he spoke of a political convergence ahead of the 2012 General Election.
Alliances are building up as the historic elections under the new Constitution draw near.
While addressing a fundsdrive in Rongai constituency, last weekend, Mr Lesonett said: "Wengine wapitie njia hii na wengine njia ile nyingine, halafu tutakutana huko mbele katika barabara kubwa (Some should use this path and the others a separate path, so that we meet on a wider road ahead)."
Stage primaries Although he relayed it rather casually and many may have missed its implication, it remains a potent political statement. His sentiments point to a strategy of forcing a presidential runoff, which for some time has been top on the priority of politicians allied to the Party of National Unity (PNU).
Lesonett’s sentiments also come in the wake of a political union brewing around Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Internal Security Minister George Saitoti.
According to PNU insiders, the three have agreed to stage primaries to pick one of them to face off with Prime Minister Raila Odinga, the presumed flag bearer of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Although Uhuru has dismissed such a plot, his allies tell a different story. During the Rongai meeting, central Kenya MPs claimed they were speaking for Uhuru, who was the designated chief guest.
Heir apparent And suspended Higher Education Minister William Ruto equally stressed: "Hawa sio watalii. (They are not tourists)," in reference to MPs Jamlek Kamau (Kigumo), Jeremiah Kioni (Ndaragwa) and Ferdinand Waititu (Embakasi).
That Kalonzo, Uhuru, Saitoti and Ruto have embarked on a similar process is best captured by the flurry of activities around them. The VP and Uhuru, in particular, have been hosting a series of delegations of grassroots leaders, including community elders, councillors, and chiefs.
On Saturday, for instance, members of the Gikuyu, Embu and Meru Association (Gema) gathered in Nakuru, to, among other considerations, endorse Uhuru as President Kibaki’s heir apparent from central Kenya.
"A proper prognosis of Kenyan politics indicates there is every likelihood of a presidential run-off, whatever the initial alliances or formations. So the talk of union at that stage is not entirely off the mark," observes Dr Joseph Magut, a political science lecturer at Kenyatta University.
He says the current pact among Uhuru, Kalonzo and Saitoti is a mere preliminary deal aimed at helping PNU put its house in order. Even then, Magut points out that such a union is bound to be problematic.
"It would make a house of political giants and in the event they have to make room for other crucial players like Ruto, it is not easy to say who would cede ground," warns Magut.
Prof Macharia Munene of United States International University (USIU-Kenya) says: "Whatever the Kalonzo-Uhuru-Saitoti axis is doing, it is just part of the wider scheme as they eventually have to team up with Eugene (Wamalwa) and (William) Ruto. And to me, the Saboti MP is increasingly becoming a more serious and valuable player in the PNU strategy."
He says there is absolutely nothing new on offer from the Kalonzo-Uhuru-Saitoti team. Noting they share a voting bloc in the eastern part of the country, Munene explains only Eugene and Ruto will help the trio to make gains in western Kenya.
That also explains why western Kenya, and in particular regions occupied by the populous Luhya and Kalenjin communities remain within PNU’s political radar.
Munene says the man to watch is Eugene, "because Ruto is a troubled man who will soon be tied down with a series of domestic cases".
The die is not castEugene, accordingly comes into picture to help retain the presumably PNU friendly zones in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties, while Ruto, who has differed with the ODM party leader, can claw away party support in the Rift Valley.
Part of the strategy is prop up as many presidential candidates and running mates from western Kenya. This ploy will achieve two main goals — split the populous Luhya vote among several players, thereby denying ODM rivals outright majority in the region and thereby forcing a possible runoff.
To date, there are several presidential hopefuls or probable running mates from the community, including Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, former Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetang’ula, Assistant Minister Wakoli Bifwoli, Kaddu Chairman and Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo, Cotu Secretary General Francis Atwoli, Nambale MP and former minister Chris Okemo and Eugene.
Mr Bifwoli has claimed to "read through" the apparent scheme in the rising number of presidential hopefuls from the region and suggested a nomination to identify the most politically potent kinsman for the top job. The suggestion remains just that since not many agree.
However, Magut says: "The die is not cast yet and the ongoing talks are still at embryonic level."
He says new formations, including re-union of current political foes, could take place.
Without ruling out the possibility of a Raila-Ruto re-union, Magut says the PM would have to make major political sacrifices to accommodate the Eldoret North MP back into his corner.
"If Ruto has to come into the loop, certain personalities, particularly Mudavadi, may have to be prevailed upon to give room. Much as he is an amiable individual, politics is about numbers and Mudavadi cannot claim to have Western Province under his wings in the same way Ruto has a section of the Rift Valley," argues Magut.
In the meantime, Raila remains the crucial factor in all the current political calculations.
"The PM remains the point of focus in all these machinations. Having staged two presidential campaigns, with the last nearly successful, one cannot ignore this experience," says Munene.
He says the entire PNU strategy and related political alliances largely revolve around neautralising or outwitting Raila.