By OLIVER MATHENGE omathenge@ke.nationmedia.com AND JEFF OTIENO jotieno@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Saturday, September 11 2010 at 22:00
In Summary
Given their numerical strength as shown in the 2009 census, young people constitute a core voting bloc that will determine who becomes the country’s next president.
A new generation of youthful voters is set to determine the outcome of the 2012 elections.
Almost six million Kenyans who were too young to vote in 2007 will have attained the voting age of 18 years by the next General Election.
These are persons who were between 13 and 17 years old during the last elections. Today, they are between 16 and 20.
According to census results published two weeks ago, the group includes 5.6 million potential voters, adding to the already large number of young people eligible to vote.
Given their numerical strength, this is a core group that politicians are expected to target in their campaigns.
In the past decade, the population has grown by 10 million people, bringing the total to 38.61 million.
This means the country is adding one million people annually to its already high population, representing a 34.4 per cent growth since the last census in 1999.
Youth bulge
Kenya is one of the countries experiencing a major youth bulge.
This, coupled with changes in electoral laws, is likely to send political players back to the drawing board. For instance, the new election Bill proposes that issuing of national identity cards be done simultaneously with voter registration.
The new Constitution also changes the political game, and a youth can now run for a seat in the National Assembly or the Senate.
The new Constitution also allows independent candidates to run for office. This means youth who have in the past been locked out of parties by the entrenched old guard can run for elective positions without party endorsement.
Those aspiring to occupy State House after 2012 will have to woo the youthful voters, most of whom appear to be dropping the tribal tag that has dominated Kenya’s politics.
But Prof Macharia Munene of United States International University (USIU) says that despite their numerical strength, the youth are not enthusiastic enough about elections.
“The political candidate who will convince them to register as voters and come out in large numbers on voting day to vote for him or her is likely to win the 2012 elections,” he said.
According to the new Constitution, to be elected president requires receiving 50 per cent plus one of the votes cast in an election, and 25 per cent of the vote in half of the 47 counties.
Acceptability among the young generation will, therefore, be key for anyone who wants to take up leadership.
But University of Nairobi lecturer Adams Oloo argues that the youth are yet to come of age as a voting bloc.
“Ethnicity and religious factors always stand in the way of unity among the youth, dividing them during elections,” he said.
Dr Oloo cites Kanu chairman Uhuru Kenyatta who, though a youthful candidate compared to then leader of Official Opposition Mwai Kibaki, failed to galvanise the young generation to vote for him in 1997.
“The majority of the youths who voted for him were from Central Province and parts of Rift Valley. I still don’t see them voting as a bloc in the next elections,” he said.
Despite the tribal and religious hurdles, politicians eyeing the big seat are not giving up and have embraced social networking to reach out to the youth.
Voting age Of the 38.61 million people in Kenya, 24.5 million are below 25 years. There are 16-year-olds looking forward to becoming adults of voting age by 2012 are 856,398.
A large number of these youthful Kenyans are users of social networking sites Facebook and Twitter. Narc-Kenya chairperson Martha Karua, who declared her interest in the presidency more than a year ago, is among the most active users of social networks.
Other politicians have fanpages on Facebook, created either by their aides or supporters.
Changing times
The high number of MPs below the age of 40 who won seats in the last General Election is a sign of the changing times. Those who have so far shown interest in the presidency are Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, deputy prime ministers Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi.
Others are Prof George Saitoti, Peter Kenneth, Eugene Wamalwa and William Ruto. Mr Odinga, the ODM leader who will be 67 in 2012, is expected to vie for the presidency for the third time.
The VP will be 59 and is expected to take a second stab at the highest political office in the land in 2012. In the last elections, the ODM-Kenya leader was third after Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga.
Running mate
Mr Mudavadi, who will be 52 in 2012, was Mr Odinga’s running mate in the 2007 elections. He is a deputy party leader of ODM.
Prof Saitoti will be 67 years in 2012. He is the PNU chairman and has previously served as vice-president under Daniel arap Moi.
Ms Karua, the Narc-Kenya chairperson, will be 55 in 2012 while Mr Ruto, the other ODM deputy leader, will be 46 in 2012.
Also expected to run is Mr Kenyatta, the Kanu chairman, who will be 51 in 2012. The Deputy Prime Minister is already positioning himself as the heir apparent to President Kibaki in Central Kenya when the Head of State retires in 2012.
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