Mudavadi factor in Kibaki succession battle

By Stephen Makabila

Multiple factors seem to be compelling Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi to throw caution to the wind and go for the ultimate prize in the 2012 General Election.

Political observers argue if Mudavadi’s dream comes to pass, it will have far reaching political consequences for ODM and even for national politics.

In the latest opinion poll released by Synovate last week, Mudavadi was rated behind the youthful Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa, another key political player in Western.

Wamalwa came seventh as the most preferred presidential candidate with one per cent support.

Mudavadi was pooled among the rest category, who received a cumulative 11 per cent for those with less than one per cent.

The poll also saw Mudavadi lose to Uhuru Kenyatta as Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s most preferred running mate. While Uhuru had 29 per cent, Mudavadi had 22 per cent.

Signals from Mudavadi’s close political associates show contrary to popular belief, he may have already made up his mind about being on the presidential ballot, and is only waiting for the right time to put it in black and white.

Even before his formal declaration, his political actions in recent weeks have left no doubt he is a man laying ground for a major political duel.

The referendum unity exhibited by Western voters on August 4 when they voted as a bloc, and the census results that ranked the community as the second most populous are two factors that seem to have inspired the Mudavadi group. Pressure on leaders from the region to go for the presidency seem to be also weighing down heavily on Mudavadi, who is not sure of the region’s support were he to be a running mate for the third time in a row.

After the constitutional referendum, he hosted Western MPs in Nairobi, with 22 MPs in attendance.

He was reportedly bestowed with the role of playing the regional spokesperson on implementation of the new Constitution. For the first time, the Deputy Prime Minister publicly complained about voter apathy in Western, and called for a change in the voting trend.

It is the same meeting that saw plans for four major rallies across Western mooted, the objective being to thank the region’s voters for voting ‘Yes’ but more importantly to sustain the region’s unity. Sources told The Standard On Sunday the conference is likely to be held in two week’s time, followed by the rallies that had been suspended.

Last week’s re-affirmation by Shinyalu MP Justus Kizito that Mudavadi will run for the president was therefore just but one of the clear indicators of the silent scheming his close associates have mounted amid the prevailing post-referendum political realignments.

Kizito, a Mudavadi political ally, while speaking in Lugari had sought to dismiss the notion that the Local Government minister only wants to be a presidential running mate.

"There are those saying Mudavadi wants to be someone’s running mate. There is nothing like that and I know he is going for the top seat," said Kizito.

Diminishing influence

The Synovate poll showed if Mudavadi fails to run for president, his chances lie in being Raila or Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka’s running mate. The popular feeling in Western is that if he contests and he is the only one from the region in the race, he is likely to win votes from across the region. However, if he fails to contest, his influence will diminish considerably.

While political experts agree a serious Mudavadi presidential bid has the potential to alter the 2012 political equation, some feel he is "not yet his own man politically". "ODM is essentially Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s political vehicle and others in it are mere supporters. If Mudavadi has any presidential ambitions, he should walk out of the Raila shadow, take a clear stand in national politics and pursue his own policies to attract others," argues Prof Munene Macharia of United States International University-Africa.

Macharia notes the Mudavadi group may be playing ‘reactive politics’ following the emergence of another political alliance in Western, fronted by Wamalwa, Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo, Nambale MP Chris Okemo, Assistant Minister Wakoli Bifwoli and Labour Party of Kenya Chairperson Julia Ojiambo.

Ford-Kenya Chairman Musikari Kombo and several former ministers from the region whose political influence cannot be ignored are equally reported to be in support of the alliance. The group has so far held meetings in Kitale and Lugari.

Wamalwa confirmed the new alliance has planned more rallies starting next month in Busia, Bungoma, Vihiga and Kakamega before venturing out to seek alliances in other regions.

More than a week ago during the burial of Harun Muturi, father to Njee Muturi, Uhuru’s personal assistant, Wamalwa gave a keynote address, during which he said the late Muturi represented the old patriots who had done their bit in moulding a modern Kenya, including the search for a new constitution. "However, if you planted a new forest, and then import old monkeys into it, the affairs of the new forest cannot be said to be new. The old monkeys must be kept off the new forest, and only new monkeys allowed for real changes to be said to have occurred," said the Saboti MP amid applause from mourners.

This was viewed to mean old politicians should give way to new leaders for a complete national renewal.

ODM youth leader Ben Ombima admits Mudavadi’s camp is aware of the activities of the new alliance.