What ‘Yes’ team must do for clear win

Support for Proposed Constitution has shrunk, but those abandoning ‘Yes’ train are not joining ‘No’ team, says a team that reviews the Coalition Government and reports to Dr Kofi Annan.

The team that also found out that about 22 per cent of voters is undecided and another 22 per cent will vote ‘No’.

In May the Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation Monitoring Project found out 58 per cent of Kenyans would vote ‘Yes’ in the August 4 referendum. But a draft of the latest report by the Annan team seen by The Standard, and circulated to members of the Serena Team shows that the numbers of enthusiastic ‘Green’ supporters have dropped to 49 per cent.

In what should send alarm bells ringing inside the ‘Yes’ camp, this trend, if not reversed through rigorous campaigns, could drop further, with the referendum just 27 days away.

The worst nightmare for the ‘Yes’ team, and those keen to see Kenya get a new constitution would be if those jumping off the ‘Yes’ train were to join the ‘No’, vote at the referendum, and deny the ‘Greens’ the requisite 50-plus-one per cent set out by the Constitution of Kenya Review Act to validate the draft. So far, however, the ‘No’ side is yet to benefit from the undecided voters, the report notes.

Still, by staying on the sidelines, they could dilute a ‘Yes’ win, and deny it the international threshold of 40 per cent participation of registered voters in a referendum. That means even if one side wins, but the turnout is less than 40 per cent, it may reflect badly on Kenya, even if that side was to win by 100 per cent margin.

The Kenyan law, however, requires that at least half of the registered voters must vote ‘Yes’ for the Proposed Constitution to be promulgated.

Legal benchmark

This is how the Annan team put it: "It is significant that this decline in the number of those supporting the Proposed Constitution has not led to a significant increase in the number of people rejecting it. A point to note, nonetheless, is that the political legitimacy of the new constitution would require a high approval rating, beyond the legal benchmark of 50 per cent plus one.’’

They added: "That is, those not voting ‘Yes’ have not shifted to the ‘No’ side; they are undecided. It is significant that this decline in the number of those supporting the Proposed Constitution has not led to a significant increase in the number of people rejecting it.’’

However, the team predicted a ‘Yes’ win, but raised questions about the implementation of the new law.

"There is indication the referendum will be successful. The question is whether the Proposed Constitution will have the necessary support to guarantee peace, stability and national unity,’’ said the team.

They added: "Conducting a free and fair referendum is one issue to stress at this stage. Putting in place a framework that would enhance transparency from the outset is critical in this respect."

New headache

The report is the second review by the Annan team this year on progress on implementation of the KNDR agreement, signed by both President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga in 2008. The losses by ‘Yes’ have added to the headaches facing the coalition partners, whose Serena Team of eight ministers (those who negotiated the KNDR agreement) is today expected to meet to review the progress of reforms under Agenda 4.

The report was prepared by South Consulting, which was hired by the Government to monitor progress of the reforms agreed in 2008.

There are several reasons given for the decline of the ‘Yes’ support, one being the indecisive position of some of the senior politicians in the camp. The report indicates some of them are yet to campaign passionately for the Proposed Constitution, and their indecision is increasing uncertainty in their ethnic constituencies.

Lack of a visible, high profile joint campaigns by the senior political leadership of the ‘Yes’ team, the report states, are affecting mobilisation of votes in favour of the Proposed Constitution.

The report also argues the fall could have been triggered by the fear by a section of PNU politicians that Raila had a head start in the race for President in 2012, and would automatically claim credit if the new law is adopted. Topping the Committee’s agenda is a self-assessment of the report.

"There have been relatively few high profile national level campaigns by the political leadership of the two parties. Related is lack of political passion and commitment to the campaigns by especially some of the ethnic elites and ethno-regional leaders. Combined, these factors are contributing to indecision among the electorate. Some of the voters are adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ approach," explains the report.

The report further said some of the politicians are using the referendum campaign to face-off against their rivals, in preparation for the 2012 General Election or for succession politics in general.

‘Watermelons’

The report also shows there are the so-called ‘watermelons’ in the Grand Coalition Government, with one leg in the ‘Yes’ and another in the ‘No’ camps, and that they were sabotaging efforts to pass the draft. It cites an earlier illegal insertion of amendments into the proposed Draft as one example, and called for speedy conclusion of investigations.

Standoffs over representation when it comes to counties is also cited as one of the reasons for the drop in the fortunes of the ‘Yes" camp. Among the issues cited for the rejection of the Draft, or for people being undecided are abortion, Kadhi courts and Land chapters. "The three issues are the most visible issues around which the ‘No’ vote is mobilised at the local level,’’ it added. The three contentious issues were raised in May as in the latest survey.

The report also shows the Church is more influential than politicians in terms of mobilising for the rejection of the Proposed Constitution.

"Both the May and June surveys identified the same contentious issues...But viewed closely, the data suggests that it is the Church’s issues — abortion and Kadhi courts — that are dominant and therefore influential in the ‘No’ campaigns," states the report.

It further indicates the politicians’ main concern is the question of land, but this is not the most important issue among those rejecting the draft.

"Indeed, the survey shows that more people (61 per cent) think that the Proposed Constitution will make the distribution of land ownership fairer. Only 30 per cent do not agree with this statement…the data shows that support for this issue has also reduced. This suggests that the Church, rather than the politicians, constitutes a significant force in relation to potential for rejection of the Proposed Constitution," the report explains.

According to the report, people in urban areas are more likely to vote for the draft than those in rural areas, while more men are likely to support it than women. The report argues that the undecided voters will determine the outcome of the August 4 referendum.

In conclusion, the report states that the political leadership has not been aggressive in mobilising support for the Proposed Constitution.

"Their visibility is critical at this period, but joint campaigns will unlock the huge numbers of undecided voters."

Tortuous journey

The report urges Kibaki and Raila to step up their campaigns for change. "The journey to a new Constitution in Kenya has been a long and tortuous one, often frustrated by individual and ethno-political interests. The President, PM and Vice President must step-up joint campaigns and reach out to everyone and everywhere," states the report.

The team also predicts there could be difficulties in the implementation of the new law if it is passed because, "divisions over the proposed Draft have added religion as another cleavage to the existing ethnic and class divisions."

If the draft is rejected, the report argues, Kenyans will have to look for new ways of healing their divisions and shaping their destiny.