Plebiscite could be a lose-lose case for VP

By Oscar Obonyo

Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka may be staring at a lose-lose scenario in the forthcoming constitutional referendum — a reality that has pushed him to belatedly toil overdrive.

If the ‘No’ camp emerges winner, he shall be admonished for giving away victory by staying on the fence rather too long and exhibiting public dalliance with opponents, including the Church. Yet, if ‘Yes’ carries the day but the Reds claw away a sizeable chunk of votes in his Ukambani backyard, it will greatly harm the VP’s political bargaining power ahead of the 2012 polls.

Others in a similar fix, like Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, noticed the political risk faster and moved fast to consolidate their regional bases in good time. Uhuru got his political life on track after convening a leaders’ meeting at Limuru Centre where he was endorsed as leader of ‘Yes’ campaigns in Central Kenya.

And after months of playing the good guy and futile attempts to reach out to the Church, it was the VP’s turn on Friday to declare war against the "Noists". All this while, the Reds had thrived on Kalonzo’s reconciliatory traits by claiming he was against the Proposed Constitution.

But speaking to politicians, professionals and council of elders from Ukambani after a consultative forum, the VP was brisk and firm. He stated that his Kamba community had no choice but lock out the "Noists" from the region.

At some point, he asked his audience whether they wanted the presidency. They answered in the affirmative and Kalonzo advised they must work hard for it.

Poor showing

Ten days ago, while addressing a meeting of head teachers from Mwingi District at a Nakuru hotel, Kalonzo openly admitted the ongoing debate and campaigns were not about the Constitution, but the 2012 General Election.

And he drew a parallel between his poor showing compared to that of President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga: "I recently accompanied the President to Nyeri and I observed the entire Central Kenya is Green, same as Nyanza because of the PM. The same cannot be said of Lower Eastern region."

Even as Kalonzo engages the powerful gear at the eleventh hour, questions abound as to why he took long to get his reading right. Part of the reason may be that he was consumed in the so-called KKK alliance — a factor that made him handle Higher Education minister William Ruto with kid gloves.

The KKK alliance is a political pact that believably unites Kalonzo, Uhuru and Ruto ahead of 2012. For fear of antagonising Ruto or dimming the alliance’s future, the VP reportedly gave the Eldoret North MP a free hand to make inroads in the region.

Manipulative tactics

And Ruto made good the opportunity, insinuating at every point that Kalonzo was equally opposed to the Proposed Constitution and giving his audiences at rallies "salamu kutoka kwa yeye" (greetings from him).

It has not helped matters that the VP has not personally and publicly disowned Ruto’s claims, choosing instead to respond through his aides.

But acting Joint Government Chief Whip Johnstone Muthama claims the VP is clearly unhappy with manipulative antics geared at portraying him as indecisive.

"The ‘No’ campaigners have realised the best way to scuttle this process is to drop in Kalonzo’s name. This is because the clergy and Christians across the country trust and believe in him," he told Tuesday Politics.

To imagine that the campaigns will create a permanent rift between the KKK leaders is to be politically naÔve. What is at work is muscle play.

Ruto, who has gained visibility out of leading the ‘No’ campaigns, was getting ahead of the queue. Kalonzo and Uhuru had to fight for their space too.

But Mutito MP Kiema Kilonzo sees another factor in the latest turn around — the Prime Minister.

With Raila indisposed, Kiema believes Kalonzo finally feels energised to push the ‘Yes’ campaigns in the region.

"His problem has always been Raila, and with him momentarily out of the way, he feels time is ripe to lead the ‘Yes’ campaign and accordingly claim credit if the Greens win. And the best way to spearhead the campaigns nationally is to begin from home," claims Kiema, one of the leaders of the ‘No’ campaign.

Speaking in Machakos at the leaders’ forum, MPs from the region reportedly warned the VP’s presidential hopes could be dealt a major blow if ‘No’ carried the day in the region.

Shifted ground

Kiema takes issue with these sentiments arguing the ‘Yes’ campaign "is now about himself (Kalonzo), his fears and his personal political gains and nothing for the community".

That Kiema, lately christened "Ukambani’s Obama", has campaigned fervently and completely shifted the ground in favour of ‘No’ is not in doubt. The two-term MP achieved all this while the Greens were embroiled in boardroom wars in Nairobi.

With Kalonzo’s "all-out-war" declaration, all these gains could be wiped in a flush. Indeed, this marks the beginning of Kalonzo’s political battle to regain lost ground ahead of the presidential poll in 2012.

Kiema has been the major host for the ‘No’ team in the larger Ukambani region, where its de facto leader Ruto has on several occasions taken ‘Kalonzo’s greetings’ to the people.

Even as Kalonzo embarks on a mission to boost his hold on Ukambani and keep the ‘No’ intruders at bay, some in the Red camp still maintain he is their man.

It is Kiema who last Friday sent a passionate appeal to Kalonzo to defect to the ‘No’ camp, noting no amount of wooing would change the stand taken by Ukambani to reject the document.